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Mohammed A. Al-Sahlawi, “The Real Prospect of Non-OPEC Oil Supply.” This paper argues that most industry observers have been pessimistic about the...
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Mohammed A. Al-Sahlawi, “The Real Prospect of Non-OPEC Oil Supply.” This paper argues that most industry observers have been pessimistic about the prospects for developing oil economically outside areas of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The evidence for this view does not constitute an econometric forecast of non-OPEC supply. Based on general history and current trends in the world oil market as well as analysis of the dynamic interactions between economic and technical factors, it appears probable that non-OPEC oil production will be a major factor in the global oil supply/demand balance for the foreseeable future.
Noel Uri and Roy Boyd, “Assessing the Impact of a Btu Tax on the U.S. Economy.” This paper investigates the effects of a broad-based energy tax on the U.S. economy in general and the agricul-tural sector in particular.
M. Nagy Eltony and Yousuf H. Mohammad, “The Structure of Demand for Electricity in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries.” Residential, commercial, and industrial sectors’ demand for electricity in countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is investigated. A model is specified for each sector and estimated. The independent variables that explain the electricity demand, such as the price of electricity charged for each sector, the per-capita income in the case of the residential sector or the contribution of each sector in gross domestic product (GDP), and the lagged electricity demand, are examined for their contributions.
Salim Chishti, “Recursively Bootstrapped Probability Distribution of Electricity Demand Forecast in Pakistan.” In Pakistan the demand for electricity has been growing at more than twice the real growth in gross domestic product (GDP) for the last 30 years. This trend is likely to continue. Besides increasing supply, appropriate demand-management policy is crucial to contain this demand. A prerequisite for such a policy is the availability of reliable projections. This study makes these projections through a formal demand model and uses the bootstrapping technique to develop interval estimates of these projections.
Gehuang D. Nan, “Fuels’ Social Costs: Evidence from All Electric-Generating Firms.” Based on U.S. electric utilities, this paper estimates social costs of number 6 (#6) fuel oil, coal, and natural gas under the Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA). It concludes that coal has the lowest social costs and #6 fuel oil the highest, that is, coal will still be the major fuel for the electric power industry to consume under the CAAA. This paper also computes a ratio of social costs to delivered costs to show, in part, the impact of the CAAA on affected utilities’ fuel choices. Coal has the highest ratio and natural gas the lowest. It indicates that coal becomes relatively expensive to consume under the CAAA and that natural gas becomes relatively cheap for the electric power industry.
Ratha T. Ramoo, “Lessee Behavior under a Resource Rent Tax.” This paper discusses the resource rent tax, which is a proposed tax instrument for U.S. offshore oil and gas leases.
Abdulrahman M. Al-Sultan, “Alternative Models of OPEC Behavior.” This paper presents a framework in which nine alternative models of the behavior of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) can be compared.
Javed Ashraf and Farhan Sabih, “Estimates of Outage Costs of Electricity in Pakistan.” This paper estimates the outage costs of electricity in each of the four provinces of Pakistan. No study of this nature has been undertaken previously. These outage costs are found to be quite significant, both in terms of costs to consumers as well as in the potential revenues foregone by the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), the state-owned electric power company.
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