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An Agent-Based Model to Simulate Motorcycle Behaviour

An Agent-Based Model to Simulate Motorcycle Behaviour

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Published by hasib
An Agent-Based Model to Simulate Motorcycle Behaviour
An Agent-Based Model to Simulate Motorcycle Behaviour

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Published by: hasib on Jan 28, 2010
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An Agent-Based Model to Simulate Motorcycle Behaviourin Mixed Traffic Flow
Tzu-Chang Lee
A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy of the University of Londonand Diploma of the Membership of Imperial College LondonCentre for Transport StudiesDepartment of Civil and Environmental EngineeringImperial College London, United KingdomOctober 2007
I would like to express my heartfelt gratitude to my supervisors, Professor JohnPolak and Professor Michael Bell. Their full support, inspiring guidance and warmencouragement have enabled me to overcome the confusion and difficulties that havebeen encountered throughout the study. In addition, my sincere appreciation goes toProfessor Marcus Wigan, the visiting professor of the Centre for Transport Studies, forhis continued and invaluable support.I would like to thank the Ministry of Education of Taiwan for the scholarship, whichmade this thesis possible.I am deeply grateful to the members of the Centre for Transport Studies, inparticular, Jackie, Jan-Dirk, Robin, Steve, Kriangkrai, KyoungA, Walter, Wat, Zia… fortheir friendship, companionship and assistance.Very special thanks go to my parents, relatives and friends in Taiwan who werealways in touch during my stay in England and encouraged me to keep going throughthose good and not so good times.Final and special mention must go to my wife for being there and supporting me allthe time. She has made this journey a less lonely one.
Motorcycles have constituted a significant proportion of the total traffic stream inmany countries. They possess several unique features which lead them to exhibit erraticand chaotic trajectories when making progress in traffic. However, the conventionaltraffic flow theories and traffic simulation models seem to place less consideration on theuniqueness of motorcycles. This may cause such theories and models to have difficultieswhen describing mixed traffic. In order to take this gap into consideration, this study wasconducted to investigate the effects of motorcycles on the traffic flow. The followingprocedure was adopted:Firstly, the unique behaviour patterns of motorcycles were characterised. Furtheranalyses were carried out to extract the fundamental elements which cause the uniquebehaviour. As the complexity theory assumes that complexity can emerge from simplerules, this study then further suggested that the motorcycle behaviour can be described bymodelling these basic elements.Secondly, three models were developed to describe motorcycle movements, namelythe longitudinal headway model, the oblique & lateral headway model and the pathchoice model. The longitudinal headway model focused on describing the phenomenonthat a motorcycle will maintain a shorter headway when aligning to the edge of thepreceding vehicle. The oblique & lateral headway model described the headwaydistribution of motorcycles when they are following the preceding vehicles obliquely.The path choice behaviour was modelled by using a multinomial logit model whichdescribed the dynamic virtual lane-based movements of motorcycles.Thirdly, these three models were calibrated separately. The first and the secondmodels were calibrated by using the Bayesian analysis due to their non-linearity andcomplexity. The last model was calibrated by the maximum likelihood estimation of 

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