Southern Ontario Temperature Trends,More Evidence of Yearly ModerationNot Warming.

By Richard WakefieldLast Updated Jan 30, 2010

Abstract:

Temperature readings from Southern Ontario is very lacking. Moststations have a very short range of years, and only 10 of 76 still gathertemperature data. Thus combining them all to give a whole picture of the region is problematic. Careful combining of the data to give aregional view was obtained and the trend is clear. Global warming inthis region is a narrowing of the variability of the range of temperatures. There is no indication that recent years are any hotterthan any previous years, if anything recent years have coolersummers, warmer and shorter winters. Comparing near by stationshas revealed a lake effect which tends to moderate temperatures, lessswing in the ranges over all months of the year, for stations locatednear the Great Lakes.

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Data:

In short, Canadian temperature records leave very much to be desired. It’s pathetic.Of the 116 stations in Southern Ontario, only 76 had any records at all. Of those 76 onlya small handful has data in those records of any length. Those other 40 stations have nodata in any of the temperature fields (Max, Mean, and Min). Here is how the data breaksdown.Figure 1 shows the state of the data. The quantity of data peaked in 1985 at 72%, and hasdropped since, with a dramatic drop in 2006. Thus currently, of all stations in SouthernOntario is only 10% have data.Let’s be clear what this means. Of the 116 stations, which should have 38,900 recordseach, up until the 1950s there is actually much less than 5% data per year. This is becauseof when the stations came on stream and when they ended (yes, almost all have ended).What is also bizarre is that Environment Canada has no temperature data in any of its 8Toronto stations.Page 2 of 26

Percent of records per year

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

1 9 0 0 1 9 0 5 1 9 1 0 1 9 1 5 1 9 2 0 1 9 2 5 1 9 3 0 1 9 3 5 1 9 4 0 1 9 4 5 1 9 5 0 1 9 5 5 1 9 6 0 1 9 6 5 1 9 7 0 1 9 7 5 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 5

Figure 1: Percent of valid records per year for 76 Ontario stations.

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1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

ALBION FIELD CENTREALLISTON NELSONARNPRIOR GRANDONBARRIE WPCCBELLEVILLEBLOOMFIELDBLYTHBOWMANVILLE MOSTERTBRADFORD MUCK RESEARCHBROCKVILLE PCCBURLINGTON TSCAMBRIDGE GALT MOECHATSWORTHCOLDWATER WARMINSTERCOMBERMERECOOKSTOWNCOPETOWNCORNWALL ONT HYDROCROMARTYDALHOUSIE MILLSDURHAMESSA ONT HYDROEXETERFLINTFOLDENSFORT ERIEGEORGETOWN WWTPGLEN ALLANGORMLEY ARDENLEEGRAND VALLEY WPCPGUELPH ARBORETUMHAGERSVILLEHAMILTON AHAMILTON MUNICIPAL LABHAMILTON PSYCH HOSPITALHAMILTON RBGHARROW CDALONDON INT'L AIRPORTLUCKNOWMADAWASKAMIDHURSTMIDLAND WATER POLLUTION CONTROL PLANTMILLGROVEMINDENMONTICELLOMUSKOKA ANIAGARA FALLSNIAGARA FALLS NPCSHPAISLEYPETAWAWA NAT FORESTRYPETERBOROUGH APICTONPOINT PELEEPORT COLBORNEPORT DALHOUSIEPORT HOPERAVENSHOERENFREWRIDGEVILLEROSEVILLE

Figure 2: Start and end years for 76 stations in Southern Ontario that have data.