PCs, WILDROSE TIED; NDP DOMINATE EDMONTON

March 31st, 2015. A new Mainstreet Technologies poll of 3,067 Albertans finds a volatile race with the
Progressive Conservatives and Wildrose Party tied at 24%. The NDP hold the lead in Edmonton with 35%.
The poll carries an overall margin of error of +/- 1.8%, 19/20.
Time will tell if this reaction to the new tax measures will have a lasting effect on public opinion or if it is
just a temporary effect. It is certainly a drastic change from where we saw public opinion just a few months
ago, said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Technologies. "Wildrose support seems to be enjoying a
resurgence after many months, perhaps due in part to a honeymoon period after their leadership and
backlash against the loss of their former leader Danielle Smith in a PC nomination."
"The coming campaign, which is widely expected in the weeks ahead, will matter. Premier Prentice has a
tremendous amount of political capital and a divided opposition that may lack the time and resources to
capitalize on this change in public opinion. The good news for the Premier is that 20% of Albertans are
undecided on the budget and there is still time for the Premier and PC caucus to convince voters that the
budget measures are both necessary and the best plan for the Province."
"The reaction to this budget, especially the unpopularity of the health care tax has evaporated the lead
enjoyed by the PC party last December to a neck and neck race with the Wildrose. Meanwhile the NDP have
taken a commanding lead in the Edmonton area, and are likely to make big gains if these numbers hold."
Highlights:
- The NDP lead in Edmonton rises to 43% from 35% when you exclude undecided voters. (35% with
undecided, 43% among decided only).
- Among decided, total approval of the budget is 40% and total disapproval is 60%.
- 48% disapprove of the new health premiums; 46% disapprove of the new fuel surcharge.
- 64% approve of tax increases for higher earners; 48% approve of moving to a progressive income tax.
-30For more information or further comment:
David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreettechnologies.ca
Available for interview from Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreettechnologies.ca
Methodology
The poll surveyed a random sample of Alberta residents by Interactive Voice Response (IVR) on March
29th, 2015. Respondents were asked to indicate their age and gender.
About Mainstreet Technologies
Mainstreet Technologies is an emerging national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience
at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion,
having predicted a majority PC government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia,
and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of
Novembers Toronto mayoral election and Februarys by-election in Sudbury.

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE 24%

WILDROSE PARTY 24%
ALBERTA LIBERAL PARTY 14%
ALBERTA NDP 15%
ALBERTA PARTY 4%
UNDECIDED 20%
BREAKDOWNS
PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE
WILDROSE PARTY
ALBERTA LIBERAL PARTY
ALBERTA NDP
ALBERTA PARTY
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

34%
13%
19% 30%
23%
16%
32% 28%
12%
22%
11%
6%
8%
23%
13% 15%
3%
6%
3%
1%
20% 19%
21% 20%
407 609 900 1151

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE
WILDROSE PARTY
ALBERTA LIBERAL PARTY
ALBERTA NDP
ALBERTA PARTY
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE

EDMONTON
14%
15%
13%
35%
3%
19%
1015

CALGARY
25%
21%
16%
11%
4%
23%
1029

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE 30%

WILDROSE PARTY 30%
ALBERTA LIBERAL PARTY 17%
ALBERTA NDP 18%
ALBERTA PARTY 5%

Male
21%
33%
14%
10%
4%
19%
1369

Female
27%
16%
14%
19%
4%
21%
1698

REST OF AB
26%
29%
13%
10%
4%
19%
1023

The government of Alberta, led by Premier Jim Prentice, introduced the 2015
provincial budget last Thursday. It contained several new tax and spending
measures, which the government defended as necessary due to Albertas
massive deficit, caused by the drop in oil prices. Premier Prentice claims many of
the new taxes are necessary to move Albertas spending away from a reliance on
energy royalties. From what you have seen, heard or read, would you say that
you approve or disapprove of the budget?

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
DONT KNOW/CANT SAY

BREAKDOWNS

15%
18%
14%
35%
18%

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
DONT KNOW/CANT SAY
SAMPLE

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

25%
9%
6% 17%
15%
23%
16% 20%
11%
14%
19% 11%
24% 40% 46% 33%
25%
15%
12% 20%
407 609 900 1151

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
DONT KNOW/CANT SAY
SAMPLE

EDMONTON
10%
13%
17%
39%
20%
1015

CALGARY
12%
17%
15%
37%
19%
1029

Male
16%
18%
11%
39%
16%
1369

Female
13%
18%
17%
32%
20%
1698

REST OF AB
17%
20%
12%
34%
17%
1023

The budget includes a new Heath Care Contribution Levy, based on income.
People earning more than $50,000 a year will have to pay it, effective July 1. The
amount will be tied to income and capped at $1,000 annually. Do you approve or
disapprove of this levy?

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
DONT KNOW/CANT SAY

BREAKDOWNS

18%
23%
13%
35%
12%

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
DONT KNOW/CANT SAY
SAMPLE

18-34 35-49 50-64

18%
11%
19%
24% 25%
16%
13%
15%
14%
30% 32% 48%
16%
17%
4%
407 609 900

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
DONT KNOW/CANT SAY
SAMPLE

EDMONTON
17%
21%
12%
39%
11%
1015

65+
28%
27%
7%
29%
9%
1151

CALGARY
17%
21%
14%
38%
10%
1029

Male
17%
17%
16%
38%
12%
1369

Female
18%
28%
10%
31%
13%
1698

REST OF AB
18%
24%
13%
32%
13%
1023

The budget includes an increase in fuel taxes by four cents a litre. Do you
approve or disapprove of this change?

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
DONT KNOW/CANT SAY

BREAKDOWNS

21%
22%
8%
38%
11%

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
DONT KNOW/CANT SAY
SAMPLE

18-34 35-49 50-64

24% 20% 14%
22% 25% 20%
2%
6%
12%
33% 35% 50%
18%
13%
4%
407 609 900

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
DONT KNOW/CANT SAY
SAMPLE

EDMONTON
17%
24%
9%
40%
11%
1015

65+
25%
19%
18%
31%
6%
1151

CALGARY
18%
24%
8%
40%
10%
1029

Male
15%
19%
6%
44%
16%
1369

Female
26%
26%
10%
32%
7%
1698

REST OF AB
23%
21%
8%
36%
12%
1023

The budget includes a tax increase for higher earners. The province will phase in
two new tax brackets for those making more than $100,000 or $250,000 a year,
who will now pay 1.5 to 2 percent a year more in incomes taxes. Thinking about
this change, do you approve or disapprove?

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
DONT KNOW/CANT SAY

BREAKDOWNS

48%
16%
7%
20%
9%

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
DONT KNOW/CANT SAY
SAMPLE

18-34 35-49 50-64

42%
41%
54%
7%
26%
17%
11%
5%
8%
22% 22%
19%
19%
6%
1%
407 609 900

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
DONT KNOW/CANT SAY
SAMPLE

EDMONTON
50%
17%
6%
16%
10%
1015

65+
63%
18%
1%
11%
7%
1151

CALGARY
46%
16%
8%
20%
10%
1029

Male
44%
11%
7%
32%
5%
1369

Female
51%
21%
7%
8%
13%
1698

REST OF AB
48%
16%
7%
21%
8%
1023

The budget changes Albertas 10% flat tax to a progressive tax system for those
making $100,000 a year or more. Do you support abandoning the flat tax
completely and adopting a progressive income tax?

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
DONT KNOW/CANT SAY

BREAKDOWNS

25%
23%
10%
27%
15%

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
DONT KNOW/CANT SAY
SAMPLE

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

25% 22% 23% 34%
9%
38% 22% 28%
9%
7%
18% 2%
41%
19%
23% 16%
15%
14%
14% 20%
407 609 900 1151

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
DONT KNOW/CANT SAY
SAMPLE

EDMONTON
30%
21%
10%
24%
16%
1015

CALGARY
23%
19%
11%
30%
17%
1029

Male
22%
29%
12%
32%
5%
1369

Female
27%
18%
8%
22%
26%
1698

REST OF AB
24%
25%
9%
27%
15%
1023

Thinking about Albertas budget deficit, what budgetary policy would you prefer
the most? Is it: cutting spending, raising taxes on corporations, raising income
and other taxes on individuals or introducing a provincial sales tax?

CUTTING SPENDING
RAISING CORPORATE TAXES
RAISING PERSONAL TAXES
INTRODUCING A PST
DONT KNOW/CANT SAY

BREAKDOWNS

25%
44%
5%
17%
9%

CUTTING SPENDING
RAISING CORPORATE TAXES
RAISING PERSONAL TAXES
INTRODUCING A PST
DONT KNOW/CANT SAY
SAMPLE

18-34 35-49 50-64

26% 25% 22%
31%
51%
56%
7%
6%
4%
28%
11%
9%
7%
7%
9%
407 609 900

CUTTING SPENDING
RAISING CORPORATE TAXES
RAISING PERSONAL TAXES
INTRODUCING A PST
DONT KNOW/CANT SAY
SAMPLE

EDMONTON
23%
48%
6%
13%
10%
1015

65+
26%
37%
3%
15%
19%
1151

CALGARY
23%
43%
9%
15%
10%
1029

Male
32%
40%
5%
20%
3%
1369

Female
18%
47%
6%
14%
15%
1698

REST OF AB
26%
43%
3%
19%
9%
1023