PCs and Liberals in Dead Heat; Brown Leads PC Members

April 14th. A new Mainstreet Technologies poll of 2,376 Ontarians finds the Ontario Liberals and
Progressive Conservatives tied with either Christine Elliot or Patrick Brown as leader. The poll carries
an overall margin of error of +/- 2.01%, 19/20.
"With a Provincial budget expected in the weeks ahead and a projected $10 billion deficit expected,
it appears Ontario voters still support Government investments in Infrastructure and Transit. A
proposal to cap public sector executive salaries would be overwhelmingly supported across
Ontario," said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Technologies. With the next Provincial election 3
years away, we see a continued low for the NDP. Meanwhile, PC support remains constant regardless
of who is named as the leader.
Mainstreet ran a separate poll of PC Party members using publicly available data on PC party donors
from the last 10 years and found Patrick Brown leading with 47%.
"With the PC leadership vote in the month ahead, Patrick Brown appears to have a significant lead
among decided party members. Turnout will be very important to both candidates, especially so for
Elliott who has the reported lower number of new memberships."
Highlights:
- 51% of Ontarians approve of investment in infrastructure & transit
- 70% approve of hard caps on the salaries of public sector executives
- Among decided voters, the PCs see a 1% bump with Christine Elliot as leader, within the margin of
error; PCs are positive about their party, 72% say it is moving in the right direction.
-30For more information:
David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreettechnologies.ca
Available for interview from Toronto:
Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreettechnologies.ca
Details
The poll surveyed a random sample of 2,376 Ontario residents by Interactive Voice Response (IVR) on
April 9th, 2015. Mainstreet polled a mixture of home phones and cell phones. 348 PC Party members
were surveyed by Interactive Voice Response (IVR) on April 9th, 2015.
About Mainstreet Technologies
Mainstreet Technologies is an emerging national public research firm. With 20 years of political
experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected
commentator on Canadian public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion,
having predicted a majority PC government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most
accurate pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral election and Februarys by-election in Sudbury.

The deficit in Ontario this year is predicted to be over $10 billion dollars. With
that in mind, do you approve or disapprove of the Ontario governments decision
to invest in Infrastructure and Transit?
STRONGLY APPROVE
46%
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
5%
NEITHER APPROVE/DISAPPROVE 20%
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
5%
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
23%
BREAKDOWNS
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

56% 45% 43% 39%
3%
6%
4%
8%
8%
21%
25% 28%
5%
6%
5%
5%
28% 22% 22% 19%
214
502
832 828
North
41%
6%
30%
2%
21%
216

Male
44%
5%
18%
5%
28%
1194

East SW SC
49% 38% 43%
1%
9%
5%
12% 24% 25%
6% 6%
8%
26% 30% 17%
454 272 388

TOTAL APPROVAL
51%
TOTAL DISAPPROVAL 28%

Female
49%
5%
21%
6%
19%
1182
905
44%
9%
20%
4%
23%
426

416
58%
2%
16%
6%
18%
620

The most recent sunshine list revealed that 111,438 public sector workers in
Ontario were paid more than $100,000 in 2014. The Ontario government has
suggested putting a hard salary cap on public sector executives will be part of
the 2015 budget; do you approve or disapprove of a hard cap on the salaries of
public sector executives?
STRONGLY APPROVE
54%
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
16%
NEITHER APPROVE/DISAPPROVE 17%
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
7%
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
6%
BREAKDOWNS
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

36% 55% 62% 68%
19%
12%
15% 20%
39%
13%
7%
3%
5%
9%
6%
5%
10%
11%
4%
7%
214
502
832 828
North
63%
20%
11%
1%
4%
216

East
56%
19%
19%
3%
4%
454

TOTAL APPROVAL
70%
TOTAL DISAPPROVAL 13%

SW
63%
7%
12%
11%
7%
272

Male
61%
11%
15%
7%
6%
1194
SC
47%
13%
20%
17%
3%
388

Female
47%
21%
19%
6%
7%
1182
905
54%
19%
19%
2%
6%
426

416
45%
20%
17%
8%
9%
620

If a provincial election were held today, who would you vote for among the
following options?

ONTARIO LIBERAL PARTY LED BY KATHLEEN WYNNE

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVES LED BY CHRISTINE ELLIOT
NDP LED BY ANDREA HORWATH
GREEN PARTY LED BY MIKE SCHREINER
UNDECIDED

BREAKDOWNS
LIBERAL
PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE
NDP
GREEN
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE
LIBERAL
PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE
NDP
GREEN
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

28% 30% 24% 28%
22% 29% 28% 37%
24%
13%
14% 8%
9%
10%
2%
3%
18%
18%
31% 24%
214
502
832 828
North
32%
31%
14%
7%
16%
216

27%
28%
16%
6%
22%

Male
28%
30%
14%
5%
23%
1194

Female
27%
26%
17%
8%
22%
1182

East SW SC 905 416

37% 22% 15% 24% 38%
24% 30% 26% 32% 26%
12% 15% 28% 12% 12%
6% 4% 7% 6%
9%
17% 27% 27% 25% 18%
454 272 388 426 620

ONTARIO LIBERAL PARTY LED BY KATHLEEN WYNNE

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVES LED BY CHRISTINE ELLIOT
NDP LED BY ANDREA HORWATH
GREEN PARTY LED BY MIKE SCHREINER

35%
36%
20%
8%

If a provincial election were held today, who would you vote for among the
following options?

ONTARIO LIBERAL PARTY LED BY KATHLEEN WYNNE

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVES LED BY PATRICK BROWN
NDP LED BY ANDREA HORWATH
GREEN PARTY LED BY MIKE SCHREINER
UNDECIDED

BREAKDOWNS
LIBERAL
PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE
NDP
GREEN
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE
LIBERAL
PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE
NDP
GREEN
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE

27%
28%
16%
6%
24%

18-34 35-49 50-64

28% 32% 22%
21%
29% 28%
23%
12%
16%
9%
5%
5%
19%
22% 29%
214
502
832

65+
28%
35%
8%
3%
26%
828

Male
28%
29%
14%
6%
24%
1194

East
37%
23%
12%
2%
25%
454

SW
17%
31%
21%
5%
27%
272

SC
23%
22%
21%
7%
26%
388

North
27%
31%
21%
6%
15%
216

ONTARIO LIBERAL PARTY LED BY KATHLEEN WYNNE

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVES LED BY PATRICK BROWN
NDP LED BY ANDREA HORWATH
GREEN PARTY LED BY MIKE SCHREINER

Female
27%
26%
17%
6%
24%
1182
905
26%
32%
11%
7%
25%
426

36%
36%
20%
7%

416
35%
24%
15%
7%
20%
620

CHRISTINE ELLIOT
PATRICK BROWN
UNDECIDED

41%
47%
12%

BREAKDOWNS

DECIDED ONLY
CHRSTINE ELLIOT
PATRICK BROWN

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

30% 43% 45% 38%
65% 47% 39% 50%
5%
11%
13% 12%
20
94
82
152

CHRISTINE ELLIOT
PATRICK BROWN
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE

46%
54%

Male
39%
51%
10%
160

Female
42%
44%
14%
188

Do you think the PC Party is moving in the right direction or the wrong
direction?

RIGHT DIRECTION
WRONG DIRECTION
UNDECIDED

BREAKDOWNS
RIGHT DIRECTION
WRONG DIRECTION
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE

72%
18%
12%

DECIDED ONLY
RIGHT DIRECTION
WRONG DIRECTION

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

75% 67% 73% 76%
15%
14%
13% 22%
10%
19%
13% 3%
20
94
82
152

80%
20%

Male
64%
26%
9%
160

Female
79%
10%
11%
188