MEMORANDUMTO: FRIENDS OF JOHN McCAINFROM: BILL MCINTURFF, PARTNERSUBJECT: RECENT POLL RESULTS IN ARIZONADATE: JANUARY 29, 2010METHODOLOGY:
On behalf of Friends of John McCain, Public Opinion Strategies conducted a statewide survey of 600Republican Primary voters in Arizona January 11-13, 2010. The margin of error for 600 interviews is+4.0%.The sample of 600 respondents was randomly drawn from the AZ statewide voter file. Eighty-one percent(81%) of the sample was made up of Republican primary voters, while nineteen percent (19%) of thesample was made up of Independent voters who are likely to vote in the 2010 Arizona GOP Primary.About half of these Independent voters had previously voted in one or more Republican Primary and theother half were categorized as potential GOP Primary voters based on their voter history and self-describedlikelihood of voting in this GOP Primary.Further, respondents were screened to include only those voters who were not employed by a newspaper,television or radio station, a political party, or by a candidate for political office, and were very orsomewhat likely to vote in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Arizona between John McCain andJ.D. Hayworth. Geographically, the sample reflects the population of likely GOP Primary voters based onvoter history by county and by Congressional District within Maricopa County.
1. John McCain enjoys a very high favorable rating among Republican primary voters.
IMAGE McCain HayworthVery Favorable41% 27%Total Favorable82% 60%Total Unfavorable17% 14%
This is a “mature” election for so early in the primary as 93% of voters have heard of J.D.Hayworth and almost three out of four (74%) have either a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him personally.
2. Currently, McCain enjoys a comfortable 59%-30% edge over J.D. Hayworth on the ballot.
Senator McCain not only enjoys a comfortable lead, but has a significant edge on intensity as wellwith 37% “definitely voting” for McCain versus 17% “definitely voting” for Hayworth.
This very positive ratio on intensity is important as it indicates the depth of support SenatorMcCain enjoys with Republican primary voters.