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ECONOMIC
PULSE
ECONOMIC PULSE | FEBRUARY 2010
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ThE TIdE BEgINS TO TURNAter te worst recession since te great depression, te US economy ene 2009 on a i note. US gdPincrease at an annual rate o 2.2% in te tir quarter o 2009, an ar eceee epectations by aciein a5.7% rowt rate in ourt quarter, te astest pace in si years.Labor marets are stabilizin.Te year 2009 saw te larest ecline in US employment since te greatdepression wit more tan 4.1 million jobs lost. But te rate o ecline in employment slowe ramaticallyas te year proresse. Te ourt quarter o 2009 recore an aerae o 69,000 jobs lost per mont,well o te 199,000 per mont in te tir quarter an te catastropic 691,000 in te rst quarter o 2009. Oter inicators o labor maret actiity suest tat conitions will continue to improe.
A REPORT ON ECONOMIES IN ThE AMERICASANd IMPACTS ON COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
Cusan & Wai, Inc.1290 Anu t AicasNw Y, NY 10019-6178T (212)-698-2502www.cusanwai.c
2010 OUTLOOk: RECOvERY
US reAl eSTATe mArkeTS expeCTedTo eNTer reCoverY lATer ThIS YeAr
ECONOMIC
PULSE
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ECONOMIC PULSE | FEBRUARY 2010
A CUShMAN & WAkEFIELd RESEARCh REPORT
2010 OUTLOOk: RECOvERY
ECONOMIC
PULSE
TABLE 1: US JOB LOSS BY MONTh (tousans o persons)
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The number o layos has allen sharply since the beginning o the year.
Te number o peoplelin or unemployment aerae at about 440,000 per wee in mi-January, own rom a pea o nearly660,000 per wee in Marc 2009. generally, wen te number is below 400,000, payroll employment isincreasin. Te economy is close to tat leel an moin rapily in tat irection. In te nal two montso 2009, tose lin or unemployment ecline by nearly 100,000 per wee.
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There is hiring in the temporary help sector.
historically, temp employment increases beore oerallpayrolls. Since September 2009, employment in temporary elp serices increase by 146,000 jobs, testronest tree monts since te oernment bean collectin tis ata in 1990. In eac o te past tworecoeries, rowt in temporary elp serices employment as been ollowe by rowt in totalemployment an tis cycle soul be no ierent.Oter inictors are looin positie. Income, sales an prouction, ae been risin since te tir quarter.Te increases in income an sales are, tus ar, moest, but tey are occurrin. Tese eelopments sowtat te economy site rom contraction to epansion urin te secon al o 2009, most liely in teourt quarter. Te unnown is wat in o recoery tis will be.
-795-695-595-495-395-295-195-955 Jan-08ma-08may-08Ju-08S-08N-08Jan-09ma-09may-09Ju-09S-09N-09
Gnay, wn t nub ing unynt isbw 400,000,ay yntis incasing. Tcny is cs t tat aning aiy in tat ictin..
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ECONOMIC PULSE | FEBRUARY 2010
A CUShMAN & WAkEFIELd RESEARCh REPORT
2010 OUTLOOk: RECOvERY
ECONOMIC
PULSE
STRENgTh ANd dURABILITYTe question is no loner wen te recoery will occur; it is ow stron an urable will it be? Will terecoery, prime by oernment stimulus ollars (remember “cas or cluners”?), be sustaine once toseollars are one? An will eman be stron enou to boost employment an become sel-sustainin? Teanswers come own to eman rowt, te business reaction to eman rowt an, oerarcin te entiresystem, te aailability an pricin o creit.1.deman growt.Te rst tin tat as to appen in any recoery is eman must increase.historically, it as been consumers wo ae increase eman an le te US out o recessionan into recoery. Tat is wat is appenin toay.In te si monts to Noember 2009 (te latest aailable ata), consumer spenin, ajuste or infation,increase at an annual rate o 2.3%, te stronest si monts since te rst al o 2007. Tis sows tatconence is raually climbin out o te basement an consumers are bac in stores. Te oliayseason, wile not reat, was better tan a year ao. Increases in spenin are a result o bot pent-upeman an risin conence, two actors we epect to ater strent. In early January, te Uniersityo Mician’s Ine o Current Consumer Conitions rose to its iest leel since Marc 2008suestin tat consumers are eelin better about teir nancial situation tan at any time since terecession bean.
TABLE 2: UNIvERSITY OF MIChIgAN INdEx OF CURRENT CONdITION
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