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C&W Economic Pulse Americas Outlook Feb2010 2

C&W Economic Pulse Americas Outlook Feb2010 2

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Published by Justin Bedecarre

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Published by: Justin Bedecarre on Feb 04, 2010
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05/24/2012

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ECONOMIC
PULSE
ECONOMIC PULSE | FEBRUARY 2010
1
ThE TIdE BEgINS TO TURNAter te worst recession since te great depression, te US economy ene 2009 on a i note. US gdPincrease at an annual rate o 2.2% in te tir quarter o 2009, an ar eceee epectations by aciein a5.7% rowt rate in ourt quarter, te astest pace in si years.Labor marets are stabilizin.Te year 2009 saw te larest ecline in US employment since te greatdepression wit more tan 4.1 million jobs lost. But te rate o ecline in employment slowe ramaticallyas te year proresse. Te ourt quarter o 2009 recore an aerae o 69,000 jobs lost per mont,well o te 199,000 per mont in te tir quarter an te catastropic 691,000 in te rst quarter o 2009. Oter inicators o labor maret actiity suest tat conitions will continue to improe.
A REPORT ON ECONOMIES IN ThE AMERICASANd IMPACTS ON COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
Cusan & Wai, Inc.1290 Anu  t AicasNw Y, NY 10019-6178T (212)-698-2502www.cusanwai.c
 
2010 OUTLOOk: RECOvERY
US reAl eSTATe mArkeTS expeCTedTo eNTer reCoverY lATer ThIS YeAr 
ECONOMIC
PULSE
 
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ECONOMIC PULSE | FEBRUARY 2010
A CUShMAN & WAkEFIELd RESEARCh REPORT
2010 OUTLOOk: RECOvERY
ECONOMIC
 
PULSE
 
TABLE 1: US JOB LOSS BY MONTh (tousans o persons)
•
The number o layos has allen sharply since the beginning o the year.
Te number o peoplelin or unemployment aerae at about 440,000 per wee in mi-January, own rom a pea o nearly660,000 per wee in Marc 2009. generally, wen te number is below 400,000, payroll employment isincreasin. Te economy is close to tat leel an moin rapily in tat irection. In te nal two montso 2009, tose lin or unemployment ecline by nearly 100,000 per wee.
•
There is hiring in the temporary help sector.
historically, temp employment increases beore oerallpayrolls. Since September 2009, employment in temporary elp serices increase by 146,000 jobs, testronest tree monts since te oernment bean collectin tis ata in 1990. In eac o te past tworecoeries, rowt in temporary elp serices employment as been ollowe by rowt in totalemployment an tis cycle soul be no ierent.Oter inictors are looin positie. Income, sales an prouction, ae been risin since te tir quarter.Te increases in income an sales are, tus ar, moest, but tey are occurrin. Tese eelopments sowtat te economy site rom contraction to epansion urin te secon al o 2009, most liely in teourt quarter. Te unnown is wat in o recoery tis will be.
-795-695-595-495-395-295-195-955 Jan-08ma-08may-08Ju-08S-08N-08Jan-09ma-09may-09Ju-09S-09N-09
Gnay, wn t nub   ing  unynt isbw 400,000,ay yntis incasing. Tcny is cs t tat  aning aiy in tat ictin..
 
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ECONOMIC PULSE | FEBRUARY 2010
A CUShMAN & WAkEFIELd RESEARCh REPORT
2010 OUTLOOk: RECOvERY
ECONOMIC
 
PULSE
STRENgTh ANd dURABILITYTe question is no loner wen te recoery will occur; it is ow stron an urable will it be? Will terecoery, prime by oernment stimulus ollars (remember “cas or cluners”?), be sustaine once toseollars are one? An will eman be stron enou to boost employment an become sel-sustainin? Teanswers come own to eman rowt, te business reaction to eman rowt an, oerarcin te entiresystem, te aailability an pricin o creit.1.deman growt.Te rst tin tat as to appen in any recoery is eman must increase.historically, it as been consumers wo ae increase eman an le te US out o recessionan into recoery. Tat is wat is appenin toay.In te si monts to Noember 2009 (te latest aailable ata), consumer spenin, ajuste or infation,increase at an annual rate o 2.3%, te stronest si monts since te rst al o 2007. Tis sows tatconence is raually climbin out o te basement an consumers are bac in stores. Te oliayseason, wile not reat, was better tan a year ao. Increases in spenin are a result o bot pent-upeman an risin conence, two actors we epect to ater strent. In early January, te Uniersityo Mician’s Ine o Current Consumer Conitions rose to its iest leel since Marc 2008suestin tat consumers are eelin better about teir nancial situation tan at any time since terecession bean.
TABLE 2: UNIvERSITY OF MIChIgAN INdEx OF CURRENT CONdITION
50607080901001101201995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010Suc: Unisity  micigan Suy rsac Cnt

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