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Delusions of Finance:Implications for WhereWe are Headed
Gail E. Tverberg, FCAS, MAAA2
nd
Biophysical Economics ConferenceOctober 16, 2009
Who am I?
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“Gail the Actuary” from “The Oil Drum” website
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Casualty insurance actuary by training
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Spent many years making insurance forecasts
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Wrote a post in January 2008 explaining crisis ahead
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http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3382
Forecast in January 2008
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Higher loan defaults
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Bond insurer downgrades; insolvencies
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Loans will become less available
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Large bank failures
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Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac need assistance
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Recession in 2008, getting worse during year
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Sudden discontinuity may make thing worse
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