Northern Sea Route Cargo Flows and Infrastructure – PresentState and Future Potential
)Claes Lykke Ragner
The report assesses the Northern Sea Route’s commercial potential and economic importance,both as a transit route between Europe and Asia, and as an export route for oil, gas and othernatural resources in the Russian Arctic. First, it conducts a survey of past and present NorthernSea Route (NSR) cargo flows. Then follow discussions of the route’s commercial potential as atransit route, as well as of its economic importance and relevance for each of the Russian Arcticregions. These discussions are summarized by estimates of what types and volumes of NSRcargoes that can realistically be expected in the period 2000-2015. This is then followed by asurvey of the status quo of the NSR infrastructure (above all the ice-breakers, ice-class cargovessels and ports), with estimates of its future capacity. Based on the estimated future NSR cargopotential, future NSR infrastructure requirements are calculated and compared with the estimatedcapacity in order to identify the main, future infrastructure bottlenecks for NSR operations.The information presented in the report is mainly compiled from data and research results thatwere published through the International Northern Sea Route Programme (INSROP) 1993-99, butconsiderable updates have been made using recent information, statistics and analyses fromvarious sources.
Northern Sea Route, Russia, Arctic, shipping
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