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  • The Role of Nuclear Energy As Part of A Diversified Mix: DR Paul JA Howarth

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    The Government’s Energy Review has highlighted the role nuclear energy can play in delivering a sustainable energy mix for the UK. Nuclear has come back into the equation given concerns over increase in oil and gas prices, rising CO2 emissions, the potential for blackouts, fossil fuel imports and uncertainty over renewable sources. However, against this backdrop nuclear energy generating capacity will decrease significantly over the next decade as many stations come off line and the timeframe for new nuclear build is tight. New nuclear build projects are being delivered to time and cost with high levels of reliability in countries such as Japan, China, South Korea with new plans in France and Finland. This presentation will consider the viability of new nuclear build, what products are available, their performance and characteristics.

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    Future Energy Policy – The Role of Nuclear byDr Paul JA Howarth, Director of Research, Dalton Nuclear Institute, Manchester UniversityDr Paul JA Howarth, Director of Research, Dalton Nuclear Institute, Manchester University

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    The Government’s Energy Review has highlighted the role nuclear energy can play in delivering a sustainable energy mix for the UK. Nuclear has come back into the equation given concerns over increase in oil and gas prices, rising CO2 emissions, the potential for blackouts, fossil fuel imports and uncertainty over renewable sources. However, against this backdrop nuclear energy generating capacity will decrease significantly over the next decade as many stations come off line and the timeframe for new nuclear build is tight. New nuclear build projects are being delivered to time and cost with high levels of reliability in countries such as Japan, China, South Korea with new plans in France and Finland. This presentation will consider the viability of new nuclear build, what products are available, their performance and characteristics.

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    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
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    91 views20 pages

    The Role of Nuclear Energy As Part of A Diversified Mix: DR Paul JA Howarth

    Uploaded by

    A Roy
    The Government’s Energy Review has highlighted the role nuclear energy can play in delivering a sustainable energy mix for the UK. Nuclear has come back into the equation given concerns over increase in oil and gas prices, rising CO2 emissions, the potential for blackouts, fossil fuel imports and uncertainty over renewable sources. However, against this backdrop nuclear energy generating capacity will decrease significantly over the next decade as many stations come off line and the timeframe for new nuclear build is tight. New nuclear build projects are being delivered to time and cost with high levels of reliability in countries such as Japan, China, South Korea with new plans in France and Finland. This presentation will consider the viability of new nuclear build, what products are available, their performance and characteristics.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 20

    The Role of Nuclear Energy

    as part of a diversified mix

    Dr Paul JA Howarth
    Director of Research, Dalton Nuclear Institute
    25th May 2006

    Combining the strengths of UMIST and


    The Victoria University of Manchester
    Vision to become a world leading centre for education & research on
    nuclear technology

    Activities cover full nuclear lifecycle with research portfolio of ~£50m

    To act independently & authoritatively on advising government &


    Theindustry
    Victoria University ofon nuclear related issues
    Combining the strengths of UMIST and
    Manchester
    Nuclear is not the Answer!

    A balanced and diversified mix of fossil,


    renewables & nuclear is the answer!

    Combining the strengths of UMIST and


    The Victoria University of Manchester
    Nuclear is alive and well around the World

    • Provides 16% of world’s electricity


    • 440 nuclear reactors operating worldwide
    • More than 11,000 reactor-years of operating experience
    • 6 new plants connected in 2004
    • 27 new plants under construction
    • In Europe:
    – Finland are constructing a 1600 MWe PWR (EPR)
    – France to build EPR demonstrator at Flamanville & maintain
    nuclear contribution

    Combining the strengths of UMIST and


    The Victoria University of Manchester
    Combining the strengths of UMIST and
    The Victoria University of Manchester
    Projected rundown of UK nuclear energy
    14000

    12000

    10000 Hinkley B and


    Hunterston B
    retirements
    8000

    MWe Dungeness B
    retirement Heysham 2 and
    6000 Torness
    retirements
    Heysham 1 and
    4000 Hartlepool
    retirements

    2000

    0
    2003
    2004
    2005
    2006
    2007
    2008
    2009
    2010
    2011
    2012
    2013
    2014
    2015
    2016
    2017
    2018
    2019
    2020
    2021
    2022
    2023
    2024
    2025
    2026
    2027
    2028
    2029
    2030
    2031
    2032
    2033
    2034
    2035
    Sizewell B PWR AGR stations Magnox stations

    Combining the strengths of UMIST and


    The Victoria University of Manchester
    Attributes of Nuclear: Avoids more CO2
    than Kyoto

    Kyoto CO2 reduction target for


    OECD countries:
    700 million tonnes/year * CO2 avoided by nuclear power in
    the OECD:
    1200 million tonnes/year *

    * Nuclear Energy and the Kyoto Protocol, Nuclear Energy Agency, 2002

    Combining the strengths of UMIST and


    The Victoria University of Manchester
    Safety Record
    900
    Deaths per TWe/y
    800

    700
    World
    600 OECD

    500

    400

    300

    200

    100
    4 1 0
    0
    Coal Natural Hydro Nuclear
    Gas

    Combining the strengths of UMIST and


    The Victoria University of Manchester
    Volumes of Waste Produced
    from 1GWe-year of Electricity

    Combining the strengths of UMIST and


    The Victoria University of Manchester
    Significant Improvements in Output

    100.0

    90.0
    Load Factor %

    80.0

    70.0

    60.0

    50.0
    1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

    Source: WANO and Nuclear Energy Institute


    US world Year

    Combining the strengths of UMIST and


    The Victoria University of Manchester
    New Plant Construction Experience Korea

    Combining the strengths of UMIST and


    The Victoria University of Manchester
    Advanced Light Water Generation 3 Systems
    Westinghouse AP1000
    1150MWe - simpler design with
    passive systems relying on natural
    processes to further improve safety
    Has received certification in the US

    Areva EPR
    1600MWe - improved French/German
    design with improve safety margin and
    operational envelope.
    Currently being constructed in Finland
    Combining the strengths of UMIST and
    The Victoria University of Manchester
    AP1000 Plant Simplifications
    80% Fewer 45% Less 70% Less
    50% Fewer 35% Fewer 80% Less Heating, Seismic Cable
    Valves Pipe* Ventilating & Building
    Pumps
    Cooling Units Volume

    * Safety Grade Compared to a conventional, 2-loop 600 MWe plant


    Combining the strengths of UMIST and
    The Victoria University of Manchester
    Modern nuclear costs are understood
    and can be competitive
    Typical costs are in range £20-30/MWh
    All costs are accounted for …..
    Capital
    17%
    Decommissioning
    2%
    41% Operations and
    Maintenance
    Fuel
    25%
    Spent Fuel Management

    2% Financing
    13%

    Combining the strengths of UMIST and


    The Victoria University of Manchester
    Nuclear economics are very sensitive
    to investor risk
    4.5

    4 MIT

    3.5
    Chicago
    Generating Cost p/kWh

    2.5 OECD-2
    RAE

    2 DGEMP
    Tarjanne

    1.5 OECD- 1

    0.5
    4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13%
    Discount Rate

    Lower end of range Upper end of range Trend line for average
    value

    Combining the strengths of UMIST and


    The Victoria University of Manchester
    Next Generation Technology: High Temperature
    Gas-Cooled Reactors

    • Small (~400 MWt) modular reactor


    – Helium cooled
    – Graphite moderated
    – Direct cycle gas turbine
    – High outlet temperature: 900°C
    – Very high degree of inherent safety

    • Prototype demonstration in South Africa by 2012/3

    • High outlet temperature implies efficient hydrogen


    generation through thermochemical cycles

    Combining the strengths of UMIST and


    The Victoria University of Manchester
    A Timeline for Replacement
    Nuclear Build

    Combining the strengths of UMIST and


    The Victoria University of Manchester
    Possible Future Nuclear Capacity in the UK

    14000

    12000

    10000

    8000
    MWe
    6000

    4000

    2000

    0
    2003

    2005

    2007

    2009

    2011

    2013

    2015

    2017

    2019

    2021

    2023

    2025

    2027

    2029

    2031

    2033

    2035
    Existing stations Potential AGR life extension New Build
    Combining the strengths of UMIST and
    The Victoria University of Manchester
    Size of the Challenge

    Electricity

    ? 100GWe
    for H2
    Generation

    140GWe
    ~60GWe

    Assumed
    Installed Future
    UK UK
    Capacity Nuclear
    Capacity 20GWe
    ~80GWe ~80GWe Renewables 20GWe

    TODAY 2020+
    Combining the strengths of UMIST and
    The Victoria University of Manchester
    Thank You!

    pjah@mags.ph.man.ac.uk

    Combining the strengths of UMIST and


    The Victoria University of Manchester

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