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Learning Bayesian Networks - Neapolitan R. E.

# Learning Bayesian Networks - Neapolitan R. E.

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10/23/2011

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Learning Bayesian Networks
Richard E. NeapolitanNortheastern Illinois UniversityChicago, IllinoisIn memory of my dad, a di
cult but loving father, who raised me well.

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Contents
Preface ix
I Basics 1
1 Introduction to Bayesian Networks 3
1.1 Basics of Probability Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51.1.1 Probability Functions and Spaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61.1.2 Conditional Probability and Independence . . . . . . . . . 91.1.3 BayesTheorem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121.1.4 Random Variables and Joint Probability Distributions . . 131.2 Bayesian Inference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201.2.1 Random Variables and Probabilities in Bayesian Applica-tions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201.2.2 A De
nition of Random Variables and Joint ProbabilityDistributions for Bayesian Inference . . . . . . . . . . . . 241.2.3 A Classical Example of Bayesian Inference . . . . . . . . . 271.3 Large Instances / Bayesian Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 291.3.1 The Di
culties Inherent in Large Instances . . . . . . . . 291.3.2 The Markov Condition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 311.3.3 Bayesian Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 401.3.4 A Large Bayesian Network . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 431.4 Creating Bayesian Networks Using Causal Edges . . . . . . . . . 431.4.1 Ascertaining Causal In
uences Using Manipulation . . . . 441.4.2 Causation and the Markov Condition . . . . . . . . . . . 51
2 More DAG/Probability Relationships 65
2.1 Entailed Conditional Independencies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 662.1.1 Examples of Entailed Conditional Independencies . . . . . 662.1.2 d-Separation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 702.1.3 Finding d-Separations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 762.2 Markov Equivalence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 842.3 Entailing Dependencies with a DAG . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 922.3.1 Faithfulness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95iii

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