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China - The Mother of All Black Swans - By Vitaliy Katsenelson

China - The Mother of All Black Swans - By Vitaliy Katsenelson

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Published by VitaliyKatsenelson
China - The Mother of All Black Swans - By Vitaliy Katsenelson

THIS TIME IS NO DIFFERENT – THE OVER-INVESTMENT BUBBLE

http://ContrarianEdge.com
China - The Mother of All Black Swans - By Vitaliy Katsenelson

THIS TIME IS NO DIFFERENT – THE OVER-INVESTMENT BUBBLE

http://ContrarianEdge.com

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Published by: VitaliyKatsenelson on Feb 12, 2010
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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07/21/2013

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1
Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA
Director of Research / Portfolio Manager
Investment Management Associates, Inc.
 
Chinese analysis can be divided into three periods:
1.Pre-crisis
1998-2008
Late-Stage Growth Obesity
2.During crisis
2008 (Q4) -2009 (Q2)
You Lie!
3.Post-crisis
2009 (Q2) -today
SuperSteroids-R-Us
 
3
Pre-Crisis -Late-Stage Growth Obesity
Starbucks is a good example of Late-Stage Growth Obesity
1999 2007
Company-Owned Stores2,00010,000Opened Stores a Year4471,403Opened Stores a Biz Day1.85.5
Growth is high, but its quality is low

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