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Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA
Director of Research / Portfolio Manager
Investment Management Associates, Inc.
 
Chinese analysis can be divided into three periods:
1.Pre-crisis
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1998-2008
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Late-Stage Growth Obesity
2.During crisis
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2008 (Q4) -2009 (Q2)
–
You Lie!
3.Post-crisis
–
2009 (Q2) -today
–
SuperSteroids-R-Us
 
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Pre-Crisis -Late-Stage Growth Obesity
Starbucks is a good example of Late-Stage Growth Obesity
1999 2007
Company-Owned Stores2,00010,000Opened Stores a Year4471,403Opened Stores a Biz Day1.85.5
Growth is high, but its quality is low

China - The Mother of All Black Swans - By Vitaliy Katsenelson

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Alex Loganleft a comment

Небезинтересно
08 / 28 / 2010
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whistlecallleft a comment

Also the US has about a 60% homeownership rate; that means there was never a true overcapacity, the problem was the inflation of home costs relative to income.
04 / 04 / 2010
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whistlecallleft a comment

In one pane the author claims Chinese need cash for the hospital; not true, as China has universal health care.
04 / 04 / 2010
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noelia73left a comment

The truth and all the thuth.....
03 / 09 / 2010
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duponthumaniteleft a comment

Good accounting work there Katesenelson! And great analyses of China over the past 12 years and more.
03 / 05 / 2010
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