For Immediate Release

—

Full Poll ResultsFebruary 2, 2010 (5pm)

Contact:

Brian Robert Calfano, Ph.D., Poll Director

E-mail:

briancalfano@missouristate.edu

Phone:

417-836-8574

Cell:

940-300-8083

Website:

http://faculty.missouristate.edu/b/briancalfano/

The Missouri State University Poll

is conducted in affiliation with thefollowing:

Missouri State University Department of Political Science

http://polsci.missouristate.edu

Center for Social Sciences and Public Policy Research

http://socantcrim.missouristate.edu/cssppr.htm

Missouri State University Office of Citizenship and Service-Learning

http://www.missouristate.edu/casl

About

The Missouri State University Poll,

February 1, 2010

The Missouri State University Poll

was conducted from January 16

to 31

, with a scientifically selectedrandom call sample using Random Digit Dialing (RDD) of 880 Missouri residents. The poll wasconducted through the Center for Social Sciences and Public Policy Research on the campus of Missouri State University, under the supervision of poll director Brian Calfano, Ph.D. All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference betweeninterviewing everyone in a population (e.g., Missouri residents), versus a scientific sampling drawnfrom that population. The sampling error for the Missouri resident sample of 880 adults is +/- 3.3percent, at a 95 percent confidence interval. Therefore, if 50 percent of Missouri residents favored aparticular position, one would be 95 percent sure that the true figure would be between 46.7 and53.3 percent, had all Missouri residents been interviewed. Sampling error does not take into accountother sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording, or contextual effects.Survey results were weighted according to the following variables: age, sex, race/ethnicity, income,and education level. An iterative weighting algorithm was used in the process. Using weights helps toensure that poll respondents are reflective of the Missouri population more generally (as determinedby U.S. Census data). This is especially important concerning the age variable, as younger Missouriresidents are more likely to have cell phone numbers only, which are not covered by standard RDDprocedures. These results should be viewed as a general public opinion survey of Missouri residents

during the time the poll was in the field

Executive Summary

—

MO Government and Taxation

Poll results suggest that Missourians give generally favorable ratings to the job that

Gov. Jay Nixon

and the

Missouri Legislature

are doing in regard to

state spending

. Interestingly, and likely because Nixon has wielded the budgetary ax several times during his first year in office,

a majorityof Republicans polled were found to be on the fence concerning th

e governor’s

performance

. This suggests that while state Republicans would like to deny the governor a positiveapproval rating, they find it

hard to argue against what has been a fiscally conservative performance to date

. Results for the state legislature are less surprising, and generally breakdownalong party lines. The other major substantive poll question contained in this report regards

Missourians’ reactionto the “Fair Tax” plan

. Note that the question did not ask about the proposed constitutionalamendment that is being considered by the legislature. Instead, it asked for respondent reaction tothe basic mechanism behind the tax plan

—

the removal of state personal and corporate incometaxes that would be replaced with a broadened sales tax

. The surprising finding regards themajority of

state Republicans lacking an opinion on the proposal

. Hence, there may be greaterpotential for

the plan’s

proponents and opponents to sway state Republicans

on the “Fair Tax”

thanconventional wisdom would assume.

Public Opinion on Gov. Nixon’s Handling of

State Spending by Political Party (WeightedData)

Survey Question:

Please tell me if you approve, disapprove, or neither approve nor disapprove of the way Missouri Governor Jay Nixon is handling state spending.

Responses:

“Approve”, “Disapprove”, “Neither/nor” (“Not Sure” responses

are not included)

Nixon & State Spending Approve Disapprove Neither /nor

Respondent Demographics (

= 880)Democrat60.1% 4.8% 32.6%Republican20.1% 9.4% 69.8%Other Party23.3% 46.6% 24.3%Missouri Residents Overall39.7% 17.8% 39.4%

Public Opinion on

Legislature’s Handling of State Spending

by Political Party (WeightedData)

Survey Question:

Please tell me if you approve, disapprove, or neither approve nor disapprove of theway the Missouri Legislature in Jefferson City is handling state spending.

Responses:

“Approve”, “Disapprove”, “Neither/nor” (“Not Sure” responses are not included)

Legislature & State Spending Approve Disapprove Neither /nor

Respondent Demographics (

= 880)Democrat49.5% 13.4% 34.5%Republican53.4% 17.6% 26.4%Other Party43.4% 23.3% 29.1%Residents Overall48% 17.5% 31.4%

Since the poll was conducted over the time period

that included Gov. Nixon’s State of the State address, it is possible

that responses to the spending questions may have changed as a result. In order to assess this possibility, the respondentsample was divided between completed poll interviews both before (

N =

154

)

and after (

N =

726) the address. Nostatistical differences in question response were detected between the pre and post address respondents.