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014 Controversies and Scandals-2

014 Controversies and Scandals-2

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Published by: OffshoreInsiders.com on Feb 14, 2010
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial


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Intro:Whether it’s preseason NFL handicapping, college football betting, beating the regular season NFL spread, getting the ATS edge in the NBA or college basketball punting,sports bettors are always looking for an edge. Often it comes off the playing field.Body:Recently sports have seen minor controversies to major scandals that all have direct or indirect handicapping lessons. In short, they can be summed up in what we preach timeand time again atGodsTips, anchor of 
. The key to successfulsports bettingis getting an edge as often as possible.This is exactly why coaches are notoriously secretive about the injury status of key players and also why we sports bettors exercise every source to get the accuratelowdown.Coaches believe more he knows about the injury status of his and his opponent’s key players, the more of an edge his team will get. It’s the same way with gamblers againsttheir sportsbook opponent.It’s precisely the reason the now infamous scandals of disgraced NBA referee TimDonaghy and former Texas A&M football coach Dennis Franchione are so significant.Sports investing in much like Wall Street betting and “inside information” that coachesand refs have access to is the sports broker’s version of insider trading.So is the lesson for the sports gambler that if we don’t get the state’s evidence directlyfrom a coach or referee that we are out of luck? Absolutely not. “Inside” information isfar from the only way to get the upper hand on betting the odds.A lot of valuable insight is out there. Just because information is public does not meanit’s widely circulated.So often the keenest intelligence comes to light after the odds have been posted, oftensomewhat limiting how sportsbooks can act in response. We’ve long touted Google Newsas our favorite aggregator of sports betting information such as injuries, expert analysison how teams match up, motivation recognition and other very useful bullet points.However, Topix and ESPN have also teamed up to try to compete with Google News.Replacing their “Sitelines” section, ESPN has partnered with Topix to create “ESPNlocal”. This new feature aggregates articles of interest to the sports fan and gambler. That being said, Google News still reigns supreme, but the ESPN/Topix synergy has potentialfor the handicapper.
We move on to a minor controversy, but certainly an example of a coach pulling out allthe stops to get the leg up on the competition or more accurately to counter the eminenceof their foe.Georgia finally ended Florida’s series domination in college football in 2007. In saidgame, the Bulldogs had a choreographed excessive celebration penalty after their firsttouchdown. Head coach Mark Richt admitted he told the team, “I expect you guys tocelebrate to the point where the official will throw a flag for excessive celebration.”Richt said his instructions were intended to fire up his team because he felt they neededto play with more passion. He did not specifically verify, but we strongly suspect that thefact that Florida had won 15 of the previous 17 meetings was motivational factor No. 1.Thesports handicappingramifications are to never underestimate the importance of emotion and the psychology of sports. Of course most players on both Florida andGeorgia were being potty trained when the domination started. Each team has gonethrough several coaching changes during the era. Despite all that, clearly Richt knew thata well publicized one-sided rivalry leads to swagger from one team and a “culture of losing” from the other.Sports bettorsshould not completely disregard historical data even if the period precedesevery player and coach who will affect that outcome of the game being handicapped. Ihonestly believe if Georgia had the 15-2 series edge, Richt would never have felt the needto manufacture boastfulness and confidence.Then there was the short-lived, though periodic speculation about the Indianapolis Colts piping in crowd noise during home games. For our purposes, the veracity of theseaccusations is not as relevant as the fact that there is a reason why opponents care if theColts are bending rules.Again, crowd noise can give a home team—we will say it again—“the edge”. Fewcoaches or players will dispute the affect of the “12
man” in football or the “6
man” in basketball.This is why we love it when we read that a team has for example “only the third sellout intwo years” or that the small town mayor held a noon pep rally the day of a big game. Not that a game or pointspread is necessarily going to be affected by a pep rally, but suchseemingly innocuous events are symptoms of how significant a specific game is and how passionate the hometown crowd is going to be.In college, we always keep an eye out for when the non-elite college basketball teams are playing home games while the student body is on winter break. The level of home courtand home field advantage is fluid and will vary game-to-game, especially with lower  profile schools where sellouts are far from a given.

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