High Quality
Open the downloaded document, and select print from the file menu (PDF reader required).
www.radarlogic.com
Release Date: February 18, 2010
December 2009
Quinn W. Eddins, Director of ResearchMatthew R. Zogby, Statistician
NEW IN THIS ISSUE:
A market snapshot of recent price and sales trends in the Soho/Tribeca neighborhood of New York City. We will profile neighborhoods in other cities in future RPX Monthly Housing Market Reports.
First November-to-December Increase in the 25-MSA Composite Price Since 2004
The 25-MSA RPX Composite price increased 0.2% over the month ending December 17, the first such increase duringthis period since 2004 (see Exhibit 5). The three-month trend (September to December) also improved relative to thelast several years.There was considerable regional variation in home price appreciation during 2009. As of December 17, prices in the West increased year-over-year while prices in the Northeast remained roughly flat and prices in the Midwest andSoutheast declined, as indicated by the regional RPX composite prices in Exhibit 7.Lately, strength has returned to housing markets in the Northeast, while markets in the Midwest have weakenedconsiderably. On a month-over-month basis, the Northeast composite price increased by 2% while the Midwestcomposite decreased by 5%. The West composite price remained flat month over month, as price increases in SanFrancisco, Denver and, surprisingly, Las Vegas were offset by price declines in the other western cities. The compositeprice for the South also remained essentially flat month over month.
The 25-MSA Transaction Count Increased by Over 40% Year Over Year
All 25 metropolitan areas tracked by Radar Logic posted year-over-year increases in RPX transaction counts inDecember. The total 25-MSA transaction count increased 44% year over year.Given the unseasonable strength in housing markets during the late summer and autumn, the six-month trend in the25-MSA transaction count from June through December was positive for the first time since the beginning of Radar Logic’s data in 2000 (see Exhibit 6). The unseasonable strength came to an end in December, however, as the 25-MSA RPX transaction count declined 11% during the month ending December 17. This was the first significant month-over-month decline since January 2009, and likely reflects the normal decline in home purchases during the winter.
RPX Neighborhood Snapshot: Soho/Tribeca, NY
This market snapshot of recent price and sales activity trends in the Soho/Tribeca neighborhood of New York City(comprised of zip codes 10007, 10012 and 10013) is based on RPX data, as prepared by Radar Logic. It focusesexclusively on the market for condominiums and examines price and transaction trends at the neighborhood level.Since the onset of the national housing bust, the Soho/Tribeca submarket has exhibited a textbook case of sticky homeprices: sellers are loathe to reduce prices, so weakness in demand is expressed predominantly as a decline in salesactivity. In mid-December, the aggregate price per square foot for Soho/Tribeca condo transactions was 35% off itspeak in January 2009, while the RPX transaction count for the neighborhood was 82% off its peak in May 2007.
www.radarlogic.com
2
Price per square foot in Soho/Tribeca condo sales is hovering at roughly $1100, and trends suggest that prices havebeen firming over both the last 90 days and the last 180 days, although the 360 day trend is still negative. Whiletrends in transaction counts are significantly positive, they are off a very low base and may not be able to sustain their current growth rates. As can be seen in Exhibit 2, an examination of the Soho/Tribeca neighborhood by price tier reveals an interestingpattern. Activity in units priced below $1 million is extremely light. Transaction counts remain 89% below their historicpeak. This may reflect low inventory levels at these price points.For units priced between $1 million and $3 million, price per square foot is roughly 35% below its peak andtransactions are running at 85% of their peak. Prices and sales were increasing in a contra-seasonal way through theautumn before dropping off in December. If there is a much anticipated “bonus bounce,” we would expect prices tostart to firm once again in the new year. As Soho/Tribeca does not typically have a large number of distressedproperties (motivated sales) we do not expect this segment to have a meaningful impact.For units priced above $3 million, the pattern suggests that activity is quite low, and prices per square foot are lessrelevant than the “I love this home” element. Transaction counts are 79% off peak and price per square foot is 58% offpeak, but the data are too thin for this to be predictive. This is likely a segment where transaction activity is driven byhome specific factors.
Exhibit 1: Price Per Square Foot and Transaction Count for Soho/Tribeca Condominiums (Zip Codes: 10007,10012,10013)
Source: Radar Logic, 28-Day RPX
TM
values for the Soho/Tribeca neighborhood as of 12/17/2009
$300$500$700$900$1,100$1,300$1,500$1,700
D e c
‐
0 8 J a n
‐
0 9 F e b
‐
0 9 M a r
‐
0 9 A p r
‐
0 9 M a y
‐
0 9 J u n
‐
0 9 J u l
‐
0 9 A u g
‐
0 9 S e p
‐
0 9 O c t
‐
0 9 N o v
‐
0 9 D e c
‐
0 9
Soho/Tribeca, NY PPSF
10-Year Max. PPSF, on 1/14/200910-Year Min. PPSF, on 5/24/2001
35%
off
peak
on
12/17/09
‐
35%
‐
30%
‐
25%
‐
20%
‐
15%
‐
10%
‐
5%0%5%10%
360-Day Trend180-Day Trend90-Day Trend
Soho/Tribeca, NY: Annualized % Change in 90,180 and 360-Day PPSF Trends
020406080100120
Soho/Tribeca, NY Transaction Count
10-Year Max. PPSF, on 4/27/200710-Year Min. PPSF, on 3/20/2003
82%
off
peak
on
12/17/09
‐
100%
‐
50%0%50%100%150%200%250%
360-Day Trend180-Day Trend90-Day Trend
Soho/Tribeca, NY: Annualized % Change in 90,180 and 360-Day Transaction Count Trends
www.radarlogic.com
3
Exhibit 2: Prices Per Square Foot and Transaction Counts for Soho/Tribeca Condominiums in Three Price Tiers
Source: Radar Logic, 28-Day RPX
TM
values for the Soho/Tribeca neighborhood as of 12/17/2009
$0$200$400$600$800$1,000$1,200$1,400$1,600$1,800$2,000
D e c
‐
0 8 J a n
‐
0 9 F e b
‐
0 9 M a r
‐
0 9 A p r
‐
0 9 M a y
‐
0 9 J u n
‐
0 9 J u l
‐
0 9 A u g
‐
0 9 S e p
‐
0 9 O c t
‐
0 9 N o v
‐
0 9 D e c
‐
0 9
Soho/Tribeca, NY PPSF <$1M
10-Year Max. PPSF, on 3/2/200910-Year Min. PPSF, on 2/4/2002
45%
off
peak
on
12/17/09010203040506070
Soho/Tribeca, NY Transaction Count <$1M
4-Year Min. 28-Day TC, on 7/21/20094-Year Max. 28-Day TC, on 5/25/2007
89%
off
peak
on
12/17/09$0$200$400$600$800$1,000$1,200$1,400$1,600$1,800
D e c
‐
0 8 J a n
‐
0 9 F e b
‐
0 9 M a r
‐
0 9 A p r
‐
0 9 M a y
‐
0 9 J u n
‐
0 9 J u l
‐
0 9 A u g
‐
0 9 S e p
‐
0 9 O c t
‐
0 9 N o v
‐
0 9 D e c
‐
0 9
Soho/Tribeca, NY PPSF $1M-$3M
10-Year Max. PPSF, on 2/7/200810-Year Min. PPSF, on 6/21/2001
35%
off
peak
on
12/17/0905101520253035404550
Soho/Tribeca, NY Transaction Count $1M-$3M
4-Year Max. 28-Day TC, on 7/23/20074-Year Min. 28-Day TC, on 7/8/2008
85%
off
peak
on
12/17/09$0$500$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500$3,000$3,500$4,000
D e c
‐
0 8 J a n
‐
0 9 F e b
‐
0 9 M a r
‐
0 9 A p r
‐
0 9 M a y
‐
0 9 J u n
‐
0 9 J u l
‐
0 9 A u g
‐
0 9 S e p
‐
0 9 O c t
‐
0 9 N o v
‐
0 9 D e c
‐
0 9
Soho/Tribeca, NY PPSF >$3M
10-Year Max. PPSF, on 7/8/200810-Year Min. PPSF, on 6/27/2001
58%
off
peak
on
12/17/0902468101214161820
Soho/Tribeca, NY Transaction Count >$3M
4-Year Max. 28-Day TC, on 2/4/20094-Year Min. 28-Day TC, on 11/10/2009
79%
off
peak
on
12/17/09
Add a Comment