PROBABILITAS ( PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITY OWES ITS EXISTENCE TO GAMBLING

GEROLAMO CARDANO (1501 – 1576)

Matematisi ITALI, patut memperoleh pujian dan penghargaan atas
kepandaiannya. Ia merupakan pelopor “ Probability Theory” dan penjudi
yang sudah mendarah daging. Gerolamo Cardano menulis buku kecil
“ LIBER DE LUDO ALEA “ ( The Book On Dice Game )
Ia mengembangkan teori kemungkinan atau probabilitas serta
mengenalkan konsep analisa kombinatorik ke dalam teori probabilitas.
CARDANO dikenal sebagai :
“The Father Of Theory of Probability”. Selanjutnya, BLAISE PASCAL
(1623-1662) dan PIERRE DE FERMAT (1601 – 1665) menyempurnakan
hasil karya CARDANO, yang akhirnya dihimpun oleh JAKOB
BERNAOULLI (1654 - 1705) menjadi text book : INTRODUCTORY
PROBABILITY

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 RANDOM ?
Setiap orang selalu mengalami dan mengahadapi ketidakpastian
bahkan sesuatu yang pasti adalah ketidakpastian
HASIL (dari suatu percobaan) yang tidak dapat diprediksi
terlebih dahulu

RANDOM (happen by chance)

UTTERLY UNKNOW

STOCHASTIC STOCHASTIKOS

PROBABILITY
ANTONYM ?

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 LANDASAN DASAR PROBABILITAS

RANDOM EXPERIMENT ?
Suatu experiment disebut random experiment, jika keluarannya (out comes) tidak
dapat diprediksi terlebih dahulu.

SAMPLE SPACE ?
Himpunan dari semua outcomes yang mungkin dari
PROBABILITY suatu random experiment disebut ruang contoh

    1 ,  2 ,...  n 
EVENT
(KEJADIAN) ? Sample points
(outcomes)
Sample space, out come space,
EVENT description space
Simple Events Certain Events (sure event)
Compound Events Impossible Events (null event)

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 LANDASAN DASAR PROBABILITAS

CONTINUOUS UNCOUNTABLY INFINITE

UNCOUNTABLE
SAMPLE SPACE
NON DENUMERABLE

SAMPLE SPACE INFINITE

FINITE

DISCRETE COUNTABLY INFINITE

SAMPLE SPACE COUNTABLE
DENUMERABLE

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 PROBABILITY SPACE

PASANGAN TIGA SERANGKAI (, S, P )

DISEBUT PROBABILITY SPACE, DIMANA :

P : S  R , FUNGSI PELUANG
DAN S ADALAH EVENT SPACE
JIKA  COUNTABLE, MAKA HIMPUNAN DARI
SEMUA SUBSET  DISEBUT POWER SET DARI
 ATAU CLASS, DIBERI LAMBANG S
JADI S =  ()
BANYAKNYA UNSUR,  () ADA 2
#

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 PENDEKATAN PROBABILITAS

AXIOMATIC
(ANDREI NIKOLAYEVIC KOLMOGOROV)
1903 - 1987

THE PROBABILITY
HAS SUBJECTIVE
FRANK PLUMPTON RAMSEY,
THREE APPROACHES (1903 – 1930)

OBJECTIVE
RICHARD MARTIN EDLER VON MISES
(1883- 1953)
CLASSICAL
RELATIVE FREQUENCY
(EQUALLY LIKELY)
EMPIRICAL

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 HUBUNGAN ANTARA
PROBABILITAS DAN STATISTIKA
DEDUCTIVE REASONING

PROBABILITY

POPULATION SAMPLE

STATISTICS

INDUCTIVE REASONING

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 PROBABILITAS

 HARD SUBJECT
 DIFFICULT SUBJECT

RANDOMNESS
PROBABILITY

UNCERTAINTY

TOPIC WHICH AT FIRST SIGHT

MAY SEEM
DAUNTING AND CONFUSING

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 EVENT

RE

EVENTS, AND ONLY EVENTS

SS HAVE PROBABILITY

EVENT CONCEPT OF EVENT

IS FUNDAMENTAL TO THE THEORY OF
PROBABILITY

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 STATISTIKA

ANALYSIS
(MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS)

STATISTICS

DESIGN
(APPLIED STATISTICS)

EXPLORATORY CONFIRMATORY
DATA ANALYSIS DATA ANALYSIS
(DESCRIPTIVE (INDUCTIVESTATISTICS)
STATISTICS)

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 TRIAL
EACH REPETITION OF AN EXPERIMENT

TRIAL

THE SINGLE PERFORMANCE

OF AN EXPERIMENT

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 RANDOM EXPERIMENT

AN EXPERIMENT THAT CAN RESULT IN DIFFERENT

OUTCOMES, EVEN THOUGH IT IS REPEATED IN
THE SAME MANNER EVERY TIME

RE AN EXPERIMENT WITH AN OUTCOME DEPENDING

ON CHANCE

HAVE OUTCOMES THAT CANNOT BE DETERMINED

WITH CERTAINTY BEFORE THE EXPERIMENTS ARE
PERFORMED

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 PENGERTIAN STATISTIKA

STATISTICIAN WHAT IS STATISTIC

STATISTICS

“STATISTIK”

STATISTA
STATESMAN

STATE - ISTICS

STATISTICS
POLITICAL ARITHMETIC SCIENCE OF STATES

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 PENGERTIAN STATISTIKA

STATISTICS : WITCHCRAFT
OR
SCIENCE
?
There are three kinds of lies :  L I E S
 DAMNED LIES
(Benjamin Disraeli)  STATISTICS
STATISTICS IS THE SCIENCE OF DATA
STATISTICS IS THE SCIENCE OF
GAINING INFORMATION FOR DATA
THE GLOBAL OF STATISTICS IS TO GAIN UNDERSTANDING FROM DATA. DATA CAN BE
THOUGHT OF AS THE UNUMERICAL INFORMATION NEEDED TO HELP US MAKE A MORE
INFORMED DECISION INA PARTICULAR SITUATION
DATA ARE NUMBERS
WHITH A CONTEXT

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 STATISTICS
KATA “STATISTIK” PERTAMA KALI DIPAKAI : GOTTFRIED ACHENWALL
(1719-1772)
UNIVERSITY OF GOTTINGEN
STATISTICS

Carries distinct
Different things to
meaning distinct
different people
individuals

THE SCIENCE OF DATA

COLLECTING SUMMARIZING
CLASSIFYING
ANALYZING ORGANIZING
AN INTERPRETING NUMERICAL INFORMATION

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 SKALA PENGUKURAN

INTERVAL SCALE

SCALES OF
RATIO SCALE ORDINAL SCALE
MEASUREMENT

NOMINAL SCALE

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 KARAKTERISTIK
Parameter
POPULATION Value that describe the
characteristics of a population

CHARACTERISTIC SAMPLING ERROR

Statistic
SAMPLE Measure describing the
characteristics of a sample
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