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-The Registry Provision o the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) allows personswho have been in the United States since January 1, 1972 to apply or LPR status.Additionally, persons who had lived in the United States beore 1982 as unauthorized residents were eligible to adjust to LPR status under the Immigration Reormand Control Act (IRCA) o 1986.
Ofce o Immigration Statistics
POLICY DIRECTORATE
P o p u l a t i o n E s t i m a t e s
J A N U A R Y 2 0 1 0
Estimates o the UnauthorizedImmigrant Population Residing inthe United States: January 2009
MICHAEL HOEFER, NANCY RYTINA, AND BRYAN C. BAKER
This report provides estimates o the number o unauthorized immigrants residing in the UnitedStates as o January 2009 by period o entry, region and country o origin, state o residence, age,and gender. The estimates were obtained using the “residual” methodology employed or estimateso the unauthorized population in 2008 (see Hoeer, Rytina, and Baker, 2009). The unauthorizedresident population is the remainder or “residual” ater estimates o the legally resident oreign-born population – legal permanent residents (LPRs), asylees, reugees, and nonimmigrants – aresubtracted rom estimates o the total oreign-born population. Data to estimate the legally residentpopulation were obtained primarily rom the Department o Homeland Security (DHS) while theAmerican Community Survey (ACS) o the U.S. Census Bureau was the source or estimates o thetotal oreign-born population.
In summary, DHS estimates that the unauthorizedimmigrant population living in the United Statesdecreased to 10.8 million in January 2009 rom 11.6million in January 2008. Between 2000 and 2009, theunauthorized population grew by 27 percent. O allunauthorized immigrants living in the United States in2009, 63 percent entered beore 2000, and 62 percentwere rom Mexico.
DEFINITIONSLegal Residents
The legally resident immigrant population as deinedor these estimates includes all persons who weregranted lawul permanent residence; granted asylee status; admitted as reugees; or admitted as nonimmigrantsor a temporary stay in the United States and notrequired to leave by January 1, 2009. Nonimmigrantresidents reer to certain aliens who were legally admitted temporarily to the United States or speciied timeperiods such as students and temporary workers.
Unauthorized Residents
The unauthorized resident immigrant population isdefned as all oreign-born non-citizens who are notlegal residents. Most unauthorized residents eitherentered the United States without inspection or wereadmitted temporarily and stayed past the date they wererequired to leave. Unauthorized immigrants applyingor adjustment to lawul permanent resident statusunder the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA)Section 245(i) are unauthorized until they have beengranted LPR status, even though they may have beenauthorized to work. Persons who are benefciaries o Temporary Protected Status (TPS)—an estimated severalhundred thousand—are not technically unauthorizedbut were excluded rom the legally resident immigrantpopulation because data are unavailable in suicientdetail to estimate this population.
METHODOLOGY AND DATA
Two populations are estimated in order to derive theunauthorized population estimates: 1) the total oreign-born population living in the United States on January1, 2009, and 2) the legally resident population on thesame date. The unauthorized population is equal to 1)minus 2). It was assumed that oreign-born residentswho had entered the United States prior to 1980 werelegally resident since most were eligible or legal permanent resident status. Thereore, the starting point or
DHS Ofce o Immigration Statistics
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200020052006200720082009
02.04.06.08.010.012.014.0
8.510.511.311.811.6DHS estimates not produced10.8for 2001–2004
Figure 1.
Unauthorized Immigrant Population: 2000–2009
Millions
Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security.
the estimates was January 1, 1980. The steps involved in estimatingthe components o each population are shown in Appendix 1. Dataon the oreign-born population that entered during 1980-2008 bycountry o birth, state o residence, year o entry, age, and genderwere obtained rom the 2008 ACS. The ACS is a nationwide samplesurvey that collects inormation rom U.S. households on social,demographic, and economic characteristics, including country o birth and year o entry o the oreign-born population. The ACSconsists o non-overlapping samples rom which inormation iscollected monthly over the course o a year. The ACS was selectedor the estimates because o its large sample size, about 3 millionhouseholds in 2008 compared to 100,000 or the March 2009Current Population Survey, the primary alternative source o national data on the oreign-born population.Data on persons who obtained LPR status by country o birth, stateo residence, age, gender, category o admission, and year o entrywere obtained rom DHS administrative records maintained in anapplication case tracking system o U.S. Citizenship and ImmigrationServices (USCIS). Data on reugees arriving in the United States bycountry o origin were obtained rom the Department o State. Dataon persons granted asylum by country o origin were obtained romUSCIS or those granted asylum airmatively and rom the ExecutiveOice o Immigration Review o the Department o Justice or thosegranted asylum deensively through removal proceedings. Data onnonimmigrant admissions by country o citizenship, state o residence, age, gender, and class o admission were obtained rom I-94arrival-departure records in the TECS system o the U.S. Customs andBorder Protection. Estimates o the unauthorized population weregenerated or the ten leading countries o birth and states o residence, age, and gender. The Cuban-born population living in theUnited States was excluded rom the estimates since, according toimmigration law, Cubans living in the United States more than ayear are eligible to apply to adjust to LPR status.Caution is recommended in interpreting changes in the size o theunauthorized population presented in this report. Annual estimateso the unauthorized immigrant population are subject to samplingerror in the ACS and considerable nonsampling error because o uncertainty in some o the assumptions required or estimation (seeLimitations below). In addition, changes in the ACS, including revisions in the wording o the question on Hispanic origin in the 2008ACS and measurement o net international migration (see U.S.Census Bureau, 2009) may have aected the size o the oreign bornpopulation and thus estimates o the unauthorized population. Thisreport does not discuss changes in the unauthorized populationbetween 2008 and 2009 by countries o origin or states o residencebecause o greater uncertainty in those estimates. For reerence,Appendix 2 provides DHS estimates by leading countries o birthand states o residence or 2000 and 2005-2009.
Limitations
Assumptions about undercount of the foreign-born population in the ACS and rates of emigration.
The estimates are sensitive to the assumptions that aremade about these components (see
RESULTS
).
Accuracy of year of entry reporting.
Concerns exist among immigrationanalysts regarding the validity and reliability o Census survey dataon the year o entry question, “When did this person come to livein the United States?” Errors also occur in converting DHS administrative dates or legally resident immigrants to year o entry dates.
Assumptions about the nonimmigrant population estimate.
The estimates arebased on admission dates and length o visit by class o admissionand not actual population counts. Length o visit, which is calculated by matching arrival and departure records, is subject to moreerror than admissions data.
Sampling error in the ACS.
The 2008 ACS data are based on a sample o the U.S. population. Thus the estimates o the total oreign-bornpopulation that moved to the United States in the 1980-2008period are subject to sampling variability. The estimated margin o error or the estimate o the oreign-born population in the 2008ACS at the 90 percent conidence level is plus or minus approximately 154,000.
Accuracy of state of residence for the legally resident population.
State o residenceor legally resident 1980-2008 entrants is assumed to be the stateo residence on the date the most recent status (e.g., reugee, LPR,or naturalized citizen) was obtained; however, the accuracy o theestimates may be aected by state-to-state migration that occurredbetween the date o the status change and January 1, 2009.
RESULTSOverall Trend
Between January 2008 and January 2009, the number o unauthorized immigrants living in the United States decreased sevenpercent rom 11.6 million to 10.8 million (see Figure 1). Between2000 and 2007, the unauthorized population grew by 3.3 millionrom 8.5 million to 11.8 million. The number o unauthorizedresidents declined by 1.0 million between 2007 and 2009, coincident with the U.S. economic downturn. The overall annual averageincrease in the unauthorized population during the 2000-2009period was 250,000.
DHS Ofce o Immigration Statistics
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-The additional sampling error introduced by shiting the reerence date o the oreign born population to January 1 is not large enough or sampling error to account or the 2008-2009 change inthe unauthorized population.
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The decrease in the size o the unauthorized population between2008 and 2009 is not likely due to sampling error in the estimateso the oreign-born population in the 2007 or 2008 ACS. The margin o error at the 90 percent conidence level was 151,000 orthe 2007 ACS and 154,000, as noted above, or the 2008 ACS.Changes in the ACS, e.g., revisions in the question on Hispanic origin in 2008 and measurement o net international migration, mayhave had an impact on the 2009 estimate and thereore the magnitude o change between 2008 and 2009. Trends in the unauthorized population reported by DHS are consistent with the mostrecent estimates by the Pew Hispanic Center showing 11.9 millionunauthorized immigrants living in the United States in March2008, 12.4 million in March 2007, 11.5 million in March 2006,and 11.1 million in March 2005 (Passel and Cohn, 2008).The sensitivity o the estimates to assumptions about undercounto the oreign-born population and emigration is illustrated withseveral examples. Doubling the unauthorized immigrant undercount rate rom 10 percent to 20 percent increases the estimatedunauthorized population rom 10.8 million to 12.1 million. Bylowering or raising emigration rates 20 percent and holding allother assumptions constant, the estimated unauthorized immigrant population would range rom 10.0 million to 11.5 million.Doubling the unauthorized immigrant undercount rate and lowering or raising emigration rates by 20 percent would expand therange o the estimated unauthorized immigrant population to11.3-13.0 million.
Period of Entry
--O the 10.8 million unauthorized immigrants in 2009, 4.0 million (37 percent) had entered the United States on January 1,2000 or later (see Table 1). An estimated 0.9 million (8 percent)came to the United States between 2005 and 2008 while 3.0 million (28 percent) came during 2000 to 2004. Forty-our percentcame to live in the United States during the 1990s, and 19 percententered during the 1980s.
Table 1.
Period of Entry of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population:January 2009
Estimated populationJanuary 2009Period of entryNumberPercent
All years ....................... 10,750,000 1002005-2008 ...................... 910,000 82000-2004 ...................... 3,040,000 281995-1999 ...................... 3,080,000 291990-1994 ...................... 1,670,000 161985-1989 ...................... 1,190,000 111980-1984 ...................... 860,000 8
Detail may not sum to totals because o rounding.Source: U.S. Department o Homeland Security.
Table 2.
Components of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population: January 2009
20091) Foreign-born population
a. Foreign-born population, entered 1980-2008, 2008 ACS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29,010,000b. Adjustment or shit in reerence date rom July 1, 2008 to January 1, 2009 ..............................................490,000c. Undercount o nonimmigrants in ACS ..........................................................................190,000d. Undercount o other legally resident immigrants (LPRs, recent reugee/asylee arrivals) in ACS .................................470,000e. Undercount o unauthorized immigrant population in ACS ............................................................1,080,000. Estimated oreign-born population, January 1, 2009 (a.+b.+c.+d.+e.) ...................................................31,220,000
2) Legally resident population
g. LPR, reugee, and asylee fow January 1, 1980-December 31, 2008 ....................................................23,540,000h. Mortality 1980-2008 ....................................................................................1,520,000i.Emigration 1980-2008 ...................................................................................3,420,000j. LPR, reugee, and asylee resident population, January 1, 2009 (g.-h.-i.) ..................................................18,610,000k. Nonimmigrant population on January 1, 2009 ....................................................................1,860,000l. Estimated legally resident population, January 1, 2009 (j.+k.) .........................................................20,470,000
3) Unauthorized immigrant population
m. Estimated resident unauthorized immigrant population, January 1, 2008 (.-l.) .............................................10,750,000
Detail may not sum to totals because o rounding.Source: U.S. Department o Homeland Security.
Components of the Unauthorized Immigrant Populationin 2009
The size o each component o the unauthorized immigrant population estimates or 2009 is displayed in Table 2. See Appendix 1 ora detailed explanation o each entry in Table 2. For the oreign-bornpopulation, the starting point was the estimated 29.0 million oreign-born residents in the 2008 ACS that entered the United Statesduring 1980-2008. This population was increased by 2.2 million,or 8 percent, by adjustments or the shit in the reerence date rommid-year 2008 to January 1, 2009 and the addition o undercountsor the populations o nonimmigrants, other legally resident immigrants, and unauthorized immigrants. The estimated undercount o -
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