© 2009 Network Press Inc. PO Box 67367 Scotts Valley CA. 95067 USA 800-678-5253 831-430-0600 FAX 831-430-0900
Jake Bernstein’s Weekly Commodity Trading Letter Page 2 of 8
I have been telling you “at this time of the year the seasonal tendencies for corn and soybeans are ideally bullish, however, the seasonalcharts show that the rallies are not likely to last much longer”. The forecast was correct. Ideally, seasonals remain bullish until early Julyfor soybeans and corn but now that the ideal time frame is upon us, time is running out. A weekly close above the July high once themonth of July is over would be considered bullish. See my short-term technical indicator analysis below. The decline in corn has beenconsiderable whereas soybeans have held well. Wheat and oats are also weak seasonally but lows are likely this month.
COWS (Corn, Oats, Wheat and Soybeans)
I advised you that short term buy triggers developed in the soybean complex. These lows were signaled by myMAC (moving average channel) method. The trigger, to go long with considerable risk was correct and all profit targets were achieved. Ihave advised you to expect a seasonal top. Remember that the trigger now necessitates a target as well as a stop and trailing stop. Aseasonal decline remains very likely.
Seasonal lows were predicted and were made. The expected rally developed, as did the recent top. The bullish conclusion wasbased on my Weekly Seasonal Futures charts and my Monthly Seasonal futures charts. Seasonals are ideally bullish until early July.The current decline was triggered by several sell signals which I illustrate for you on the chart below. It would now take a weekly closeABOVE the June high to turn bullish again on corn.
Await wheat buy recommendations. As in all the grain and soy complex markets, the intraday price swings in wheat will con-tinue to be large and they will therefore require large stops. The usually bearish seasonals are likely to keep rallies in check until after the Jly lows are in place. Do not follow strength at this time. Await seasonal lows. A significant decline is still possible this month.
The intermediate-term uptrend remains bullish with support having been tested. I told you that “
This is one of the most bullishlong term developments I have ever seen in oats
and a buy trigger on a short term basis has confirmed the COT Commercials bull-ish stance. Prices reached short-term targets but then reversed lower on sell signals. The market may well be dragged lower withwheat and the other grain and soybean complex commodities inasmuch as the seasonals are now ideally lower.