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China Energy  
 A Guide for the Perplexed 
Daniel H. Rosen
Visiting Fellow, Peterson Institute for International EconomicsChina Strategic Advisory 
Trevor Houser
Visiting Fellow, Colin Powell Center for Policy StudiesChina Strategic Advisory 
May 2007
China Balance Sheet
 A Joint Project by the Center for Strategic and International Studiesand thePeterson Institute for International Economics
 
 
Daniel Rosen
is a visiting fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, where he was in residence from1993 to 1998. This is his fifth Institute study on China-related subjects. Previous work included
Behind the Open Door 
(1998) on foreign investment in China,
The New Economy and APEC 
(2002, with Catherine Mann) on informationtechnology and Asian productivity,
Roots of Competitiveness 
(2004, with Scott Rozelle and Jikun Huang) on China’sagricultural sector, and
Prospects for a US-Taiwan Free Trade Agreement 
(2004, with Nick Lardy). His first work on theintersection of China’s energy sector and environment was
Powering China 
, written with Dan Esty in 1994–95 for theRockefeller Brothers Foundation. In addition to his Institute scholarship, he is principal of China Strategic Advisory, aNew York–based consultancy, and adjunct professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairssince 2001.
Trevor Houser
is a visiting fellow at the Colin Powell Center for Policy Studies at the City College of New York andDirector of China Strategic Advisory’s Energy Practice. His recent publications include
Chávez-China Oil Deal May Produce Unsuspected Winners, 
published by YaleGlobal in September 2006;
The China Energy Specter: Perceptions and Prospects,
prepared for the Pudong Institute for the US Economy in May 2006; and
 Alternative Measures of Chi- nese Economic Development 
, developed for the Aspen Institute
 
Italia’s publication
 Aspenia 
in February 2006.
 
The authors would like to thank the following who served as advisors to this study:Renato Amorim, Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (CVRD)David Blumental, Vinson & Elkins LLPDaniel Esty, Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy George Gilboy, Woodside PetroleumMichael Laske, AVL China Jeff Logan, World Resource InstituteLiang Shipu, Shenhua GroupDavid Pumphrey, US Department of Energy Scott Roberts, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Gavin Thompson, WoodMackenzie Xu Xiaohui, General Electric ChinaK. F. Yan, Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA)Zhang Jianyu, Environmental Defense ChinaSpecial thanks go to Peter C. Evans of CERA and Erica Downs of the Brookings Institution for their extensive help inthis endeavor.This policy analysis
 
is an abbreviated version of a book on China’s energy sector currently under preparation for the Pe-terson Institute for International Economics.
© Peterson Institute for International Economics. All rights reserved.
 
 
3
Contents
INTRODUCTION 41 WHAT’S DRIVING DEMAND 6
The Evolution of Energy Demand in China 6 The Current Demand Picture 7Industry-Led Demand 8Consumption-Driven Demand 14
 
2 CHINA’S ENERGY SUPPLY SYSTEM 17
Formal Energy Policy Institutions 17
 
Informal Channels of Influence 19
 
Oil and Gas 19
 
Coal and Power 22
 
3 GLOBAL IMPACTS 28
 World Energy Markets 28
 
Energy Security and Overseas Investment 30
 
The Environment 33
 
Goods Trade and Industrial Competitiveness 35
 
4CONCLUSION AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 37
 Assessing the Domestic Response 37
 
Prioritizing the International Policy Response 40
 
Energy Security 40
 
Industrial Competitiveness 43
 
Climate Change 44
 
REFERENCES 47
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