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Stochastic Model for Multy-Path Traffic Assignment With Considering Diverge Perceived Travel Cost

Stochastic Model for Multy-Path Traffic Assignment With Considering Diverge Perceived Travel Cost

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Makalah ini masuk niminasi makalah dipresentasikan kategori B, peluang masuk Jurnal Simposium EASTS tahun 2007 di Dailan China:
This paper had reviewed for EASTS Symposium in Dailan China, 2007, and get the category of B
Makalah ini masuk niminasi makalah dipresentasikan kategori B, peluang masuk Jurnal Simposium EASTS tahun 2007 di Dailan China:
This paper had reviewed for EASTS Symposium in Dailan China, 2007, and get the category of B

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Published by: Dr. Ir. R. Didin Kusdian, MT. on Mar 09, 2010
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial


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R Didin Kusdian Prof. Ir. Ofyar Z. Tamin, MSc.,PhD.SAPPK-ITBDoctoral Program Graduated Post Graduate ProgramLecturer of Universitas Sangga Buana-YPKP Institute Technology of Bandung (ITB)Jl. PH. Mustopa 68 Bandung-Indonesia Jl Tamansari 64 Bandung - Indonesiae-mail : kusdian@yahoo.com e-mail:ofyar@trans.si.itb.ac.id Prof. Dr. Ir. Agus Salim Ridwan, MSc Ir. Ade Syafruddin, MSc., PhD.Transportation Post Graduate Program Transportation LaboratorySchool of Architecture Planning and Civil Engineering Study Program ITBPolicy Development (SAPPK)-ITB Labtek I 2
FloorJl. Ganesha 10 Bandung- Indonesia Jl. Ganesha 10 Bandung- Indonesiae-mail:ades@trans.si.itb.ac.id
New idea added in this research and have been considered inside perceived cost divergemodelling, that was perceived cost also influenced with the distance of journey. More longthe distance more wide the uncertainty distribution of travel perceived cost. To model thisphenomenon the travel perceived cost generated not only by using single distribution functionas an approach effort, this reserach use three distribution with gradual dispersion parameter.This idea derived and aplicated in hypotetical road network assignment analysis. Experimentresult showed that with assumed that there are four segment of travel cost perception for allorigin-destination pair in the network will appear diverge chosen route which could bedifferent with one best route as the result of the assumption that there is no diverge perceptionamong the traveller about the travel cost of all pair of origin-destination inside the network.Keywords : diverge travel perceived cost, normal distribution, distance base distribution,route choice pattern.
1. Introduction
Transport demand is lean to increase, this happened in Indonesia, especially at urban area.Transport will be necessity for more people, in compliance with population and vehicleamount growth. In urban area transport intensity relatively higher in compare with in ruralarea which lower in population density.Urban transport study need modelling to predict movement. The movement wahat is meant inthis case are people movement and/or fright movement. With use vehicle on the movementlane from origin to destination. At any time interval the movement that have been predictedwill take place at once on each links inside the network.In that time interval the movement that happen on each link can be expressed with link’svolume. On planning work in the context of future time it traffic volume determined fromestimation result that use modeling including traffic assignment model. This traffic volumeestimating is very useful for transport network system planning and traffic management.1
 Planning has the nature of anticipating toward any possibility that can be happen in future, inthe short time horizon, middle time horizon and long time horizon. Research developmentabout route choice modeling has the important role in transport modeling for use in effectiveand efficient transport system planning.Urban transport system study need the arrangement of calculating procedure for analyze therelation among transport demand and transport system supply. From the demand side willnecessary the estimation of movement amount and it spatial distribution pattern, this can bederived from perception behavior distribution. Supply side is including physical propertiesand spatial distribution of transport network especially in surface transport network forexample highway, road and street network. The study should be done in that both sidesimultaneously.As a detail part of modeling and calculating procedure in demand-supply study of transport itsshould be include travel cost modeling. Travel cost strongly influence by each travelersperception. It will need particular study to derive travel cost formula, which can be used forsystem base transport demand-supply study. Travel cost formulation study will be better if including with perception factor that actually occur in reality.
2. Route Choice Stochastic Model
In ‘all-or-nothing’ route choice approach, travelers rationally choose shortest route, whichminimize transport impedance (distance, time, and cost). All travelers between origin anddestination zone use one same route following the assumption that travelers know it fastestroute. In another word, travelers know about shortest route which minimizing travel time andall of them use it route, no one use another route. All-or-nothing assignment result only oneroute assigned with traffic flow, for each origin-destination pair (Tamin, 2000).Route choice could be modelled with considering stochastic effect, that there are perceptiondiverge possibility among travellers. Monte Carlo simulation technic can represent driverperception diverge about travel cost (travel time) for each links, as the development effort of Burrel Model. Basically, the development of Burrel Model is starting with try to treatdifferently beetween objective and perception cost. Objective cost is the cost from observer ormodeller view or determined by them, and than treated as mean value of perception costwhich distributed among travellers. So perceived cost behaviour can be drawn with useprobability distribution function (Ortuzar, 1994; Tamin, 2000).
3. Route Choice Stochastic Model Development
Route choice model which considering travel cost diverge can be derived with use distributionfunction for generate perceived cost values from objective cost value that treated as meanvalue of perceived costs. The form of distribution can be adapted according the priorobservation of perception data or follow some assumption, for example use uniformdistribution or normal distribution (Kusdian et al., 2005)Each traveller is possible has any different way in their view about travel cost between originand destination. Among this diverge, then be grouped become N segments, where inside one2
segment be assumed have same perception, while among segments are different. Thissegment formation will usefull for analysis purpose in estimating traffic load amounts whichuse each links inside the network.Additional consideration which became the specific characterictic of this research is thatperception diverge pattern which drawn by distribution function as perception distributionmodel, influence by travel distance. Shorter travel distance cost will easier to predict for morepeople and more people will use these short travel distance. The longer travel distance themore dificult to predict it distance or travel cost, so among peoples there is prediction diverge.This prediction diverge can appear cause of perception diverge. The longer travel distance themore spread perception diverge about travel cost.This distance base perception diverge than modelled so that it possible to be numericallyanalyzed. The technic used in this case is modelled it in probability distribution fuctions withdispersion gradation. Dispersion coded as percentage from mean value, spread to the left andright from it, so than distribution is drawn. Mean value of perceive travel cost is objectivetravel cost value or travel cost value (of link or route) in modeller view.Link objective travel cost is counted with add fuel cost, travel time cost, and toll cost. For notlink cost, toll cost is zero. Travel time cost is travel time multiply by travel time value, wheretravel time value is some factor for converse time to cost unit or money. In this research traveltime value approached with work time value of auto user who became the survey respondent,that is average income per month divide by work time per month.For the analysis of route choice inside the network, travel cost between each origin-destination pair is counted by adding all passed links cost, where in numerical process it donewith limiting passed links amount. Shortest path choice process is executed with use Dijkstaalgorithm (Bell and Iida, 1997).Application of travel cost perception diverge reality was proceed by means of perceptiondiverge about links traverse cost. Links inside the network divided in to three groups: short,middle and far or long. Perception diverge is drawn from objective cost and dispersionparameters in percentage of objective cost.In this case the objective cost is assumed as the mean value of perceived cost, where theperceived cost is distributed person perception cost about each links. First, for the group of short distance links, dispersion parameter is zero, this mean that travelers have the sameperception about travel cost of these links. Second, for the middle distance links, dispersionparameter treat as 15% from objective value, and third for the long distance group of linksdispersion parameter is 30% from objective value. Distribution function that used in thisresearch is normal distribution. Each perception distribution divided to be four segments of perceptions each segment will have different perceived cost. Chosen route inside network searched by travel cost minimizing for each origin zone to all destination zone. Countingcycle of route searching behave for each perception segments.3

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