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NJ Re Update Mar 2010

NJ Re Update Mar 2010

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Published by: kettle1 on Mar 11, 2010
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03/10/2010

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Mar
 
2010
 
Kettle1 Research
 
Note
 
that
 
the
 
general
 
trend
 
I
 
for
 
1
st
 
quarter
 
to
 
be
 
the
 
local
 
trough
 
and
 
for
 
2
nd
 
quarter
 
to
 
be
 
the
 
peak
 
in
 
any
 
given
 
year.
 
In
 
2003
 
1q03
 
was
 
the
 
trough
 
as
 
is
 
normal,
 
but
 
the
 
peak
 
extended
 
into
 
3q03.
 
The
 
same
 
trend
 
is
 
visible
 
3q09
 
data.
 
There
 
is
 
only
 
the
 
one
 
previous
 
example
 
in
 
this
 
data
 
set
 
but
 
it
 
provides
 
1
 
possibility
 
of 
 
future
 
behavior
 
based
 
on
 
past
 
experience.
 
It
 
should
 
also
 
be
 
noted
 
that
 
such
 
an
 
extension
 
of 
 
the
 
sales
 
volume
 
peak
 
could
 
be
 
expected
 
due
 
to
 
the
 
looming
 
tax
 
credit
 
deadline
 
as
 
well
 
as
 
the
 
recent
 
government
 
efforts
 
to
 
drive
 
home
 
purchases.
 
 
Note
 
that
 
the
 
nominal
 
median
 
single
 
family
 
home
 
price
 
has
 
increased
 
154%
 
between
 
1999
 
and
 
2007.
 
Current
 
median
 
single
 
family
 
home
 
prices
 
are
 
115%
 
above
 
the
 
1999
 
median
 
price.
 
 
In
 
1999
 
the
 
median
 
home
 
prices
 
was
 
3.2
 
times
 
the
 
median
 
household
 
NJ
 
income.
 
In
 
2007
 
it
 
was
 
6.1
 
times
 
the
 
median
 
household
 
income
 
and
 
an
 
preliminary
 
estimate
 
for
 
2009
 
is
 
4.t
 
times
 
the
 
median
 
household
 
income
 
 
Mar
 
2010
 
Kettle1 Research
 
57%
 
of 
 
single
 
family
 
home
 
purchases
 
in
 
1999
 
were
 
less
 
than
 
$200,000.
 
In
 
2006
 
only
 
12%
 
of 
 
home
 
purchases
 
were
 
below
 
$200,000
 
and
 
in
 
3
rd
 
quarter
 
2009,
 
20%
 
of 
 
home
 
purchases
 
were
 
less
 
than
 
$200,000.
 
 
Note
 
that
 
the
 
middle
 
price
 
ranges
 
do
 
not
 
generally
 
exhibit
 
any
 
large
 
fluctuations
 
during
 
this
 
bubble.
 
The
 
major
 
shifts
 
occurred
 
in
 
the
 
1
199K
 
price
 
range
 
and
 
the
 
500K+
 
price
 
range
 
 
Mar
 
2010
 
Kettle1 Research
 
The
 
higher
 
the
 
price
 
range
 
the
 
more
 
distortion
 
is
 
apparent
 
over
 
the
 
progression
 
of 
 
the
 
bubble.
 
 
The
 
spike
 
in
 
the
 
data
 
at
 
3q04
 
is
 
real
 
and
 
not
 
a
 
data
 
entry
 
error.
 
Note
 
that
 
the
 
300K
399K
 
price
 
range
 
does
 
not
 
exhibit
 
a
 
spike
 
at
 
that
 
time
 
period
 
and
 
an
 
inverse
 
spike
 
occurs
 
in
 
the
 
400K
499K
 
price
 
range.
 
 
If 
 
you
 
look
 
at
 
the
 
first
 
chart
 
you
 
will
 
see
 
that
 
sales
 
volume
 
stayed
 
flat
 
from
 
3q04
 
to
 
4q04
 
when
 
the
 
general
 
trend
 
is
 
for
 
a
 
decrease
 
in
 
sales
 
volume
 
during
 
that
 
period.
 
The
 
spike
 
in
 
price
 
distribution
 
occurs
 
during
 
that
 
blip
 
in
 
the
 
sales
 
volume
 
trend.
 
Something
 
generated
 
counter
 
trend
 
increase
 
in
 
sales
 
volume
 
when
 
it
 
would
 
normal
 
be
 
decreasing
 
due
 
to
 
seasonal
 
trends.
 

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