IST 431 – Final Paper – Nick Cherry’s Contributions

Socio-Technical Analysis

Before exploring some of the technology predictions of the past and present, we would like toprovide an overview of the implications of our thesis and the significance of our chosen topic.We will outline our points using the socio-technical analysis included below.

The Issue

The topic is science fiction and its ability to predict the existence and social consequences of future technologies. The issue is just how seriously we should take these forward-looking novels,films, comics and various other forms of media. Our group proposes that we, as a society,consider these fictions not as absolute truths, but as fairly accurate indicators of circumstances tocome. As we will demonstrate later in the paper, science fiction has proven itself on severaloccasions to be remarkably accurate. By having the sense to utilize this foresight, considering thepossibilities of future technologies and society’s reactions to them, we can anticipate problemsand possibly prevent them from occurring at all. For this reason, we see the devotion of time andeffort to "researching" science fiction's take on futuristic technologies as a valid investment.

Socio-Technical and Systemic Nature of the Issue

It is inevitable that practically all people will feel the impacts of technologies that wereenvisioned long before their creation. In our increasingly high-tech world, many experience thetechnologies directly, but everybody will be touched by the social reactions surroundinginnovations. Whether its context is one of medicine, transportation, business, entertainment,communication, warfare, art, or convenience, technology's societal effects are inescapable. So,the issue of science fiction influencing technology-related decisions is relevant to all.

Technology in Question

The projections of science fiction are, by no means, limited. Robots, web servers, prostheticlimbs, holograms, genetic therapy, jet packs, weather control, and teleportation are just a few of the popular ones. As mentioned in the previous sub-section, science fiction makes predictions inevery major categorization of technologies. Anything is fair game.

Information in Question

The information relevant to our issue can be classified as either technological or societal. Theformer refers to the science behind the device. How does the author justify the functionality of the device? How exactly does it work? These explanations may be founded on up-and-comingphysics or technologies of the fiction's time, or the mechanics could be completely unrealistic asfar as science is concerned. Regardless of the technological information's credibility, it couldserve as inspiration for real-life possibilities.The second classification of relevant information focuses more on context. If this technology ismade available, how would people use it? What potential does it have, both good and bad? Willit bring people together or isolate them? Can everybody have one? Will laws and regulation benecessary? Societal information may be even more valuable than technological information.Rather than sparking ideas, it can depict outcomes. Maybe a technology really isn't worthpursuing, or perhaps a seemingly insignificant advancement may have the previously unrealizedpotential to bring about great change. Foresight is an incredibly powerful tool.

IST 431 – Final Paper – Nick Cherry’s Contributions

Major Stakeholders

Everybody is affected by the technologies that may or may not become reality, so really, we areall stakeholders. Some of us, however, do carry more weight - those who are influenced byscience fiction's predictions and have the ability to shape the world in which we live. Theseindividuals may be scientists, engineers, lawmakers, professors, or venture capitalists, butanyone who plays a significant role in the development, funding, or popularization of technologies could be considered a major stakeholder. These are the people who have the powerto bring about change.

Potential Outcomes

Adopting science fiction as a legitimate resource for technological prediction could have severaldifferent outcomes. The fiction could be completely inaccurate - the technologies may neverbecome reality, and the time spent analyzing the fictional material will have gone to waste. Wefind this scenario very unlikely, and we do not believe that the thorough evaluation of potentialtechnologies and their contexts would ever be entirely worthless. At the very least, we wouldgain knowledge about human nature and social reactions to comparable innovations.Nevertheless, it is a possibility that studying science fiction could yield no significant benefits.On the other hand, the fiction's predictions could be extremely accurate. We foresee technologiesyears in advance and can approach them with a wiser and more informed perspective. Potentialcrises are avoided, and the rate of development and implementation is drastically increased. Infact, the fiction may actually be responsible for the development of a technology in the first place.We could rise to levels of technological advancement that would never be reached without theinfluence of science fiction (although some of our more technologically deterministic interviewsubjects beg to differ). This may or may not be desirable.Yet another possibility is that we simply run out of technology-predicting science fiction at somepoint. As suggested by the article "Where Has All the Sci-Fi Gone?" (Our Future Thoughts,2008), it is becoming more and more difficult for writers to make incredibly futuristic claims.Because information technology grows at an exponential rate (Kurzweil, 2001), the more weadvance, the harder it becomes for writers/futurists to keep pace. To add insult to their injury, we(the audience) have become accustomed to this accelerated rate of development, so the bar forshocking/impressing/inspiring us has also risen. At some point, technology may develop fasterthan fiction can predict.

Empowering Technology to Change Social Life

Science fiction has the power to inspire technologies that may have never existed, and it canconjure the support necessary to develop and fund potential technologies. But fiction isconceptualized, communicated, absorbed, and utilized by humans. We are involved in every stepof the process and at any point can say, "no". Science fiction certainly has the ability to settechnologies in motion, but without the continued support of humans, technology would bepowerless (at least until the point of singularity, which will be discussed later in the paper).

Empowering Humans to Change Technology

We feel that this is much more appropriate than the idea of empowering technology. Utilizingscience fiction's predictions allows us to plan for and manage future technologies. We have the

IST 431 – Final Paper – Nick Cherry’s Contributions

foresight to ensure that technology does not become powerful beyond control. We can envisionthe technology's role in society and choose to endorse or reject what we see. Science fictiongives us the power to change the course of technology before it becomes too late.

Winners and Losers

The use of science fiction to predict future technologies is beneficial to society and presumablyeveryone in it. Humans can make the best of what technology has to offer and attempt to avoidunwanted consequences. The only losers would be companies and individuals who waste timeand resources pursuing technologies that can/will never become reality.

Unintended Effects

The most significant and probable "unintended effect" we can imagine is that certaintechnologies, which in reality may have been hugely beneficial to society, will be avoidedbecause of disagreeable predictions described in works of fiction. This could also work the otherway. We may aspire to create technologies because of an appealing fictional description, but inreality the technology is more detrimental to society than helpful. Overlooking fundamentalflaws in authors' logics could mislead us, and there may be unanticipated variables that throw off predictions entirely. These are risks we must be aware of.

Acceptability

We (and some of our interview subjects) believe that many individuals and organizations arealready adopting science fiction as a legitimate source of technological and social prediction.Research and development divisions, in particular, could find these inspiration goldminesincredibly valuable, and there is nothing to lose (but time) by exploring the possibilities.

Professional Support of Thesis

In addition to our own personal thoughts and research on the topic, we sought the insight of scholars and professionals who specialize in particularly relevant fields of technology. We haveproduced four successful interviews via e-mail. Below are the questions asked and the responsesprovided by each subject.

Dr. Massimiliano Vasile

, Department of Aerospace Engineering, University of Glasgow

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Throughout your lifetime/career, have you witnessed technologies, which were originally conceived in some form of science fiction, become reality?

Precisely as you see them in science fiction no.

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Do you feel that science fiction has played a significant role in the development of these technologies? Had the concepts never existed in fiction, would we still have the technologies today?

On top of what I said before, science was often inspired by new discoveries inscience. For example, the whole theory of relativity inspired many science fiction