Welcome to Scribd, the world's digital library. Read, publish, and share books and documents. See more
Download
Standard view
Full view
of .
Look up keyword
Like this
1Activity
0 of .
Results for:
No results containing your search query
P. 1
21000080 Goldman Sachs Research Commodity Watch

21000080 Goldman Sachs Research Commodity Watch

Ratings: (0)|Views: 26|Likes:
Published by MANAZER4

More info:

Published by: MANAZER4 on Mar 13, 2010
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

Availability:

Read on Scribd mobile: iPhone, iPad and Android.
download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
See more
See less

03/12/2010

pdf

text

original

 
October 12, 2009 Commodities: Commodity WatchGoldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 1
 
October 12, 2009
Commodities
Commodity Watch
Patiently waiting for upside
We are maintaining our 12-month forecast for the S&P GSCIEnhanced Total Return Index at 17.5% and ourrecommendation for an overweight allocation tocommodities.
Focus on uneven DM recovery exacerbates uncertainty
Commodity returns have remained relatively flat over the last month withthe exception of gold, consistent with a macro economy just beginning topush off the trough, leading to volatile economic and commodity demanddata and a lack of clear direction in the commodity markets. This has beenparticularly the case as signs that developed economies have troughedhave led to a renewed focus on the recovery in developed markets, whichhas been very fragile and uneven across countries and sectors in contrastto a clear uptrend in emerging market growth since early this year. As wasthe case in 1Q09, the rising uncertainty has led gold to outperform.
Commodity fundamentals remain in line with coincidental data
The lack of a clear trend in the economic and commodity data has createdimpatience for evidence of improving commodity fundamentals,particularly as equity markets have continued to price in positive leadingindicators. However, commodity fundamentals remain generallyconsistent with the coincidental economic indicators that remain muchweaker and more volatile than the positive leading indicators driving themore anticipatory financial markets. We continue to expect this volatilityinthe coincidental data to persist until the commodity markets emerge fromthe weak shoulder period in demand and the economic recovery gainsmore solid footing.
Economic and commodity data suggest gains lie ahead
It is important to emphasize that our forecasts embed only moderateimprovements in commodity demand heading into the end of the year,and both economic and commodity data continue to suggest that suchimprovements lie ahead. We continue to expect gains to be centered inenergy although also expect substantial upside in certain metals such ascopper. We maintain our view that gains will remain limited in agriculturewith the exception of corn.
Allison Nathan
(212) 357-7504 | allison.nathan@gs.comGoldman, Sachs & Co.
Jeffrey Currie
+44(20)7774-6112 | jeffrey.currie@gs.comGoldman Sachs International
Janet Kong
+852-2978-6128 | janet.kong@gs.comGoldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
David Greely
(212) 902-2850 | david.greely@gs.comGoldman, Sachs & Co.
Samantha Dart
+44(20)7552-9350 | samantha.dart@gs.comGoldman Sachs International
Damien Courvalin
+44(20)7051-4092 | damien.courvalin@gs.com
 
Goldman Sachs International
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should beaware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a singlefactor in making their investment decision. For important disclosures, see the text preceding the disclosures or go towww.gs.com/research/hedge.html.
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research
 
October 12, 2009 Commodities: Commodity WatchGoldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 2
Current trading recommendations
Long Copper timespread
Buy December 2010 CopperSeptember 8, 2009 -
Metals 
$112/mt$78/mt
($34/mt)
Sell December 2011 Copper
Long Heating Oil, short Fuel Oil
Buy 1Q2010 USGC Heating OilJuly 15, 2009 -
Commodity Watch
$15.97/bbl$14.66/bbl
($1.31/bbl)
Sell 1Q2010 USGC 3.0% Fuel Oil
Long Natural Gas
Buy Summer 2010 NYMEX Natural GasJuly 15, 2009 -
Commodity Watch
$5.43/mmBtu$6.10/mmBtu
$0.67/mmBtu
Long Platinum
Buy January 2010 NYMEX PlatinumJuly 15, 2009 -
Commodity Watch
$1,140.6/toz$1,339.4/toz
$198.8/toz
WTI call trade
Buy June 2010 NYMEX WTI call struck at $85/bblJune 3, 2009 -
Energy Watch
$2.93/bbl$3.50/bbl
$0.57/bbl
Sell June 2010 NYMEX WTI call struck at $100/bbl
Long corn trade
Buy May 2010 CBOT corn contractMay 14, 2009
- Agriculture 
468 cents/bu383 cents/bu
(85 cents/bu)
Long timespread WTI trade
Buy December 2009 NYMEX WTI contractFebruary 16, 2009-
Energy Weekly 
($11.56/bbl)($8.06/bbl)
$3.50/bbl
Sell December 2011 NYMEX WTI contract¹As of close on October 9, 2009. Inclusive of all previous rolling profits/losses.
Current ValueCurrentprofit/(loss)
1
Current tradesFirst recommendedInitial value
 
Source: GS Global ECS Research.
 
October 12, 2009 Commodities: Commodity WatchGoldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 3
Price actions, volatilities and forecasts
units09 OctChangeImplied
2
ChangeRealized
2
Change1Q 082Q 083Q 084Q 081Q 092Q 093m6m12mEnergy
0.46
0.17
-0.06
0.08
1.94
8.60
Industrial Metals
4
20
-180
800
59
Precious Metals
51
1.4
Agriculture
39
3
57
2
12
227
0.3
-4.9
-0.6
1
Monthly change is difference of close on last business day and close a month ago.
2
Monthly volatility change is difference of average volatility over the past month and that of the prior month (3-mo ATM implied volatility, 1-mo realized volatility).
3
Price forecasts refer to prompt contract price forecasts in 3-, 6-, and 12-months time.
4
Based on LME three month prices.
63.2
65.065.080.0
72.574.759.160.1n/a28.2-12.657.9CME Lean Hogcent/lb50.9n/a83.0
85.090.0110.0
93.7101.388.783.8n/a11.2-6.491.5CME Live Cattlecent/lb82.6n/a14.7
16.017.017.0
11.213.111.612.7-3.2148.6-1.412.5NYBOT Sugarcent/lb21.241.92499
270027002700
2769278422522553n/a35.9-3.52420NYBOT Cocoa$/mt3243n/a124
130135140
136138112113n/a34.68.0143NYBOT Coffeecent/lb136n/a54
506065
72674746n/a30.6-0.873NYBOT Cottoncent/lb63n/a406
400400450
629578384377-3.8255.027.0517CBOT Corncent/bu36230.91116
100010001000
13881320915949-6.8736.6-25.61359CBOT Soybeancent/bu96428.1572
500500550
843792552551-4.7844.821.91028CBOT Wheatcent/bu46828.813.8
15.615.516.0
17.215.110.212.62.5141.2-3.817.6London Silver$/troy oz17.6 38.1922
930960960
8968727959081.1915.2-0.3925London Gold$/troy oz104923.41509
185018402150
2150179812191208-3.0644.28.52460LME Zinc$/mt203944.313147
174101745018800
25859191331111810625-0.4244.45.329120LME Nickel$/mt1875050.04708
697070007400
8323757139483494-4.0834.3-0.37741LME Copper$/mt623541.11530
168017202050
2995283918851401-3.1130.5-1.62779LME Aluminum$/mt190935.927.57
36.4039.8046.60
63.0866.4565.5945.306.7799.6-40.252.75UK NBP Nat. Gasp/th32.95 55.03.81
6.507.007.70
11.478.986.404.47-10.43140.075.88.74NYMEX Nat. Gas$/mmBtu4.77 56.31.56
2.202.332.54
3.533.311.841.34-0.6338.60.72.74USGC Heating Oil$/gal1.83 47.7
Volatilities (%) and monthly changes
2
Prices and monthly changes
1
Price Forecasts
3
Historical Prices
WTI Crude Oil$/bbl71.77 47.2-0.6640.22.097.82123.80118.2259.08
94.00
43.3159.79
85.0087.50
117.1557.4945.7259.90
83.5086.0092.50
Brent Crude Oil$/bbl70.00 47.3-0.4044.110.696.31122.79RBOB Gasoline$/gal1.77 49.0-0.0143.1-6.32.483.172.961.341.251.71
2.142.342.36
 
Source: GS Global ECS Research.
S&P GSCI
 
Enhanced Commodity Index and strategies’ total returns and forecasts
1
 
 
(%)200720082009 YTD12-mo Forecast
S&P GSCI Enhanced Commodity Index100.036.2-41.112.017.5Energy70.244.8-45.915.125.0Industrial Metals7.9-5.3-48.957.05.0Precious Metals3.328.00.516.3-1.0Agriculture14.336.6-23.4-6.9-1.0Livestock4.31.2-26.5-15.15.0
 
1
YTD returns through September 30, 2009.
Source: Standard & Poor’s, GS Global ECS Research.

You're Reading a Free Preview

Download
scribd
/*********** DO NOT ALTER ANYTHING BELOW THIS LINE ! ************/ var s_code=s.t();if(s_code)document.write(s_code)//-->