Rockwall

Independent
School
District

Learn from Yesterday

Understand Today
Plan for Tomorrow

Quarterly
Report
2Q15

Economic Conditions DFW MSA (June 2015)

DFW MSA
Unemployment Rate

-1.3%

3.6%
Job Growth
DFW MSA

23,997

U.S. 5.5%
Texas 4.4%
DFW MSA 4.0%
Rockwall County 3.8%
Rockwall 3.6%

117,800 new jobs created

More than double the national
rate of 1.7%

1,484 more than previous year over year

Annual SF Starts
DFW MSA
2

Rockwall County Housing Market

Year Over Year Comparisons

YTD Sales

7%

(1,138 YTD Sales June 2015)

Average Price

12%

($277,460 June 2015)

Median Price

12%

($237,540 June 2015)

-17%

Number of Listings
(389 June 2015)

-27%

Days on the Market

(49 Days)

-24%

Existing Home Inventory

(2.4 Months Supply)
3

DFW New Home Ranking Report

ISD Ranked by Annual Closings 2Q15
Rank District Name
1 Frisco ISD
2 Denton ISD
3 Prosper ISD
4 Northwest ISD
5 Keller ISD
6 Lewisville ISD
7 Dallas ISD
8 Eagle Mtn. - Saginaw ISD
9 Rockwall ISD
10 Little Elm ISD
11 Allen ISD
12 McKinney ISD
13 Crowley ISD
14 Mansfield ISD
15 Forney ISD
16 Plano ISD
17 Garland ISD
18 Midlothian ISD
19 HEB ISD
20 Burleson ISD

Annual Starts Annual Closings

2,728
2,660
1,707
1,783
1,405
1,298
1,136
1,179
989
978
1,026
913
1,024
902
868
807
663
661
806
621
471
605
481
559
530
533
533
508
469
502
454
429
357
412
427
397
430
391
387
377

VDL
3,589
2,375
2,796
1,710
1,159
2,503
2,311
1,435
1,799
1,744
920
1,343
1,372
1,161
804
1,028
825
1,102
555
591

Future
8,135
16,233
27,990
22,929
2,448
2,980
5,828
19,839
9,463*
5,044
1,305
6,229
8,674
5,359
12,500
2,364
3,390
20,525
5,003
3,770

Source: Metrostudy
*Adjusted based on additional research by Templeton Demographics staff
(Added Heritage Springs-605 lots; Discovery Lakes-507 lots; Gideon Tract-72 lots; Miravista Addition-29 lots; The Dominion at Heath-17 lots)

New Housing Activity Metrostudy data

450

Starts

400

Closings

Housing Inventory

350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

Starts
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
Total

2010
86
69
85
54
294

2011
68
77
63
87
295

2012
83
95
140
134
452

2013
117
137
169
133
556

2014
130
193
205
187
715

2015
115
156

271

Closings
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
Total

2010
56
89
84
80
309

2011
65
72
70
79
286

2012
72
101
90
87
350

2013
100
100
154
149
503

2014
142
135
173
166
616

Rockwall ISD had 156 starts in the second quarter, a 35% increase from 1Q15
The district had 184 2Q15 closings, the highest quarter closings since 2006
5

2015
138
184

322

Annual Closing Distribution 2Q15

Top 10 Subdivisions - 2Q15 (Ranked by Annual Closings)
Rank

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Subdivision

Williamsburg (Fate)
Stone Creek (Rockwall)
Caruth Lake
Woodcreek (Fate-RISD)
Chamberlain Crossing
Preserve, The (Rockwall)
High Point Lake Estates
Sonoma Verde
Chisholm Crossing
Breezy Hill
TOTALS

Annual
Closings

Quarter
Closings

VDL

103
70
68
53
52
41
26
22
21
18

15
26
12
6
17
7
15
18
6
7

44
151
150
51
49
36
231
111
50
231

474

129

1,104

VDL= vacant developed lots

Vacant Developed Lots 2Q15

Top 10 Subdivisions - 2Q15 (Ranked by remaining VDL)
Rank
1
2
3
4

5
6
7
8
9
10

Subdivision

High Point Lake Estates

Breezy Hill
Stone Creek (Rockwall)
Caruth Lake
Sonoma Verde
Townsend Village
Chandlers Landing
Park Place West II
McCrummen Estates
Woodcreek (Fate-RISD)
TOTALS

Annual
Closings

VDL

Future

26
18
70
68
22
3
3
6
0
53

231
231
151
150
111
69
68
62
59
51

0
466
373
0
922
0
0
0
0
953

269

1,183

2,714

VDL= vacant developed lots

Future = Preliminary planned

Future Lots 2Q15

Top 10 Subdivisions - 2Q15 (Ranked by Future Inventory)
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

8
9
10

Subdivision
Williamsburg (Fate)
Woodcreek (Fate-RISD)
Sonoma Verde
Heath Golf & Yacht Club
Heritage Springs
Discovery Lakes
Breezy Hill
Heath Golf & Yacht Club Villas
TH
Highlands, The (Rockwall)
Summer Lee Condominiums
TOTALS

VDL
44
51
111
0
0
0
231

Future
1483
953
922
777
605
507
466

0
0
0
437

450
399
398
6,960

VDL= vacant developed lots

Future = Preliminary planned

Overall Housing Data

By Elementary Attendance Zone
Elementary Zone

CULLINS
DOBBS
HARTMAN
HAYS
JONES
NEBBIE
PARKS
PULLEN
REINHARDT
ROCHELL
SHANNON
SPRINGER
STEVENSON
VERNON
TOTALS

Annual Starts

Quarterly
Starts

Annual
Closings

Quarterly
Closings

Inventory

VDL

Futures

24
8
31
145
8
0
97
23
8
5
160
122
32
0
663

9
0
5
21
0
0
21
6
1
0
48
37
8
0
156

27
6
41
158
3
0
92
26
7
8
173
67
53
0
661

10
3
7
45
3
0
28
9
1
1
35
36
6
0
184

17
2
19
59
5
0
52
12
5
1
98
80
18
0
368

35
71
36
533
69
0
302
138
28
1
105
430
51
0
1,799

0
6
266
1,234
90
0
1,578
575
0
5
2,853
1,298
1,558
0
9,463

Source: Metrostudy
Highest activity in the category
Second highest activity in the category

Third highest activity in the category

Active Subdivision
Heath Golf & Yacht Club City of Heath

Heath Golf & Yacht Club

1,227 total homes

777 single-family homes

450 luxury villas

Estimated velocity rates:

2015 = 40
(revised down from 80 due to weather delays)
2016 = 100
2017 = 100

Construction started Summer 2014

328 lots to be delivered August 2015
Roads are 98% complete
Majority of homes in first 5 years of
development priced at $380K-$500K
Gehan Homes, Dunhill & Rendition
Parks Elementary

10

Active Subdivision
Williamsburg City of Fate

Williamsburg

1,854 total homes

294 occupied homes
24 UC/44 VDL/1,483 Futures
Estimated pace:

136 current students

140 lots to be delivered at the end of
October 2015
Shannon Elementary

2015 75-100 homes

2016 75-100 homes
2017 75-100 homes

11

Active Subdivision
Chamberlain Crossing City of Fate

Royse City ISD

Chamberlain Crossing

411 total homes

52 occupied homes
258 future homes
44 under construction
Lennar Homes
Estimated absorption rates:
2015 = 60
2016 = 60
2017 = 60
2018 = 60
Shannon Elementary

Williamsburg

12

Future Development
Dowell Road Development City of Rockwall
Highway 276

Dowell Road

Dowell Road Development

107 total single-family residential lots

107 total future lots
138.79 total acres
Zoning approved 1Q15
Platting has not been approved
If approved, likely to impact district
in late 2016 or early 2017
Shannon Elementary

13

Future Development
Heritage Springs City of Fate

Royse City ISD

Heritage Springs

971 total units

605 single-family
366 multi-family
187 total acres
City and developer are working
closely together to get this
project approved
Not approved as of July 2015
First homes possible in 1Q17
(preliminary estimate)
Stevenson Elementary

Williamsburg

14

Future Development
Ridge Lakes City of Heath

Ridge Lakes

95 total lots
95 future lots
Phase I = 52 total lots
Approved by City of Heath in
May 2015
Grading work has begun
Pullen Elementary

15

Future Development
Discovery Lakes City of Rockwall

Discovery Lakes

507 total lots

507 future lots
Estimated lot size breakdown:

60 ft. = 259 lots

70 ft. = 127 lots
80 ft. = 121 lots

Approved by City of Rockwall in

August 2015
Shannon Elementary

16

Enrollment History
Year (Oct.)

EE/PK

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

10th

2011/12

397

937

1,053

1,060

1,003

1,079

1,115

1,086

1,147

1,091

1,227

2012/13

392

950

1,003

1,083

1,093

1,057

1,124

1,161

1,148

1,177

1,179

2013/14

390

925

1,014

1,033

1,127

1,135

1,081

1,159

1,195

1,189

2014/15

358

1,006

968

1,073

1,101

1,170

1,203

1,118

1,207

1,220

2015/16

360

950

1,057

1,057

1,157

1,182

1,242

1,264

1,179

1,254

Total
Growth

% Growth

14,486

156

1.1%

1,006

14,647

161

1.1%

1,022

14,992

345

2.4%

1,021

15,468

476

3.2%

11th

12th

Total

1,106

998

1,031

14,330

1,135

1,050

934

1,251

1,081

1,061

1,275

1,219

1,052

1,329

1,272

1,144

*Yellow box = largest grade per year

*Green box = second largest grade per year

Student Race/Ethnicity and Economically Disadvantaged

Year
(Oct.)
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15

Total
14,072
14,330
14,486
14,647
14,992

Black or
African
American
914
895
939
942
993

%
6.5%
6.2%
6.5%
6.4%
6.6%

Hispanic
2,904
3,012
3,132
3,125
3,175

%
20.6%
21.0%
21.6%
21.3%
21.2%

American
Indian or
Alaska
Native
103
117
119
148
143

%
0.7%
0.8%
0.8%
1.0%
1.0%

Asian
363
386
393
398
440

%
2.6%
2.7%
2.7%
2.7%
2.9%

White
9,330
9,435
9,382
9,472
9,675

%
66.3%
65.8%
64.8%
64.7%
64.5%

Two or more
races
434
461
500
538
537

%
3.1%
3.2%
3.5%
3.7%
3.6%

Native
Hawaiian/
Other Pacific
Islander
24
24
21
24
29

%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%

STUDENT RACE/ETHNICITY TOTALS 2014-15

WHITE, 9,675,
64.5%

MORE THAN 1,
537, 3.6%

HISPANIC/LATINO,
3,175, 21.2%

Year
(Oct.)
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15

Economically
Disadvantaged
3,648
3,662
3,688
3,669
3,719

% ED
25.9%
25.6%
25.5%
25.0%
24.8%

HAWAIIAN/PACIFIC
ISLANDER, 29, 0.2%
BLACK, 993, 6.6%

ASIAN, 440, 2.9%

AM. INDIAN/ALASKA
NATIVE, 143, 1.0%

17

Ten Year Forecast

By Grade Level
Year (Oct.)
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
2020/21
2021/22
2022/23
2023/24
2024/25
2025/26

EE/PK
397
392
390
358
360
360
360
360
360
360
360
360
360
360
360

K
937
950
925
1,006
950
979
1,027
1,056
1,086
1,104
1,137
1,163
1,192
1,221
1,254

1st
1,053
1,003
1,014
968
1,057
1,025
1,048
1,103
1,134
1,165
1,195
1,222
1,250
1,282
1,313

2nd
1,060
1,083
1,033
1,073
1,057
1,144
1,090
1,115
1,176
1,204
1,251
1,281
1,308
1,340
1,372

3rd
1,003
1,093
1,127
1,101
1,157
1,132
1,219
1,159
1,182
1,245
1,282
1,334
1,364
1,396
1,429

4th
1,079
1,057
1,135
1,170
1,182
1,236
1,206
1,293
1,232
1,258
1,324
1,363
1,415
1,452
1,484

5th
1,115
1,124
1,081
1,203
1,242
1,237
1,293
1,267
1,354
1,286
1,324
1,378
1,425
1,482
1,523

6th
1,086
1,161
1,159
1,118
1,264
1,300
1,286
1,346
1,327
1,424
1,351
1,388
1,447
1,496
1,555

7th
1,147
1,148
1,195
1,207
1,179
1,329
1,364
1,348
1,414
1,407
1,507
1,434
1,469
1,530
1,584

8th
1,091
1,177
1,189
1,220
1,254
1,229
1,379
1,414
1,422
1,485
1,470
1,568
1,499
1,534
1,596

9th
1,227
1,179
1,251
1,275
1,329
1,360
1,327
1,465
1,502
1,526
1,586
1,600
1,693
1,618
1,656

10th
1,106
1,135
1,081
1,219
1,272
1,320
1,358
1,322
1,460
1,495
1,494
1,569
1,575
1,666
1,596

11th
998
1,050
1,061
1,052
1,144
1,199
1,245
1,278
1,247
1,377
1,401
1,423
1,481
1,518
1,589

12th
1,031
934
1,006
1,022
1,021
1,101
1,152
1,200
1,228
1,197
1,303
1,365
1,375
1,429
1,459

Total
14,330
14,486
14,647
14,992
15,468
15,952
16,354
16,727
17,124
17,534
17,984
18,447
18,854
19,323
19,770

Total
Growth

% Growth

156
161
345
476
484
403
372
398
409
451
463
407
469
446

1.1%
1.1%
2.4%
3.2%
3.1%
2.5%
2.3%
2.4%
2.4%
2.6%
2.6%
2.2%
2.5%
2.3%

*Yellow box = largest grade per year

*Green box = second largest grade per year

Rockwall ISD will approach 16,000 next fall

5 year growth = 2,066 students

2020 enrollment = 17,534 students

10 year growth = 4,302 students

2025 enrollment = 19,770 students

18

Ten Year Forecast

By Elementary Campus
Campus

Capacity
725
750
765
1,000
750
750
750
650
750
750
765
600
765

AMANDA ROCHELL ELEMENTARY

AMY PARKS-HEATH ELEMENTARY
CELIA HAYS ELEMENTARY
CULLINS-LAKE POINTE ELEM
DORTHY SMITH-PULLEN ELEM
DORRIS JONES ELEMENTARY
GRACE HARTMAN ELEMENTARY
HOWARD DOBBS ELEM
NEBBIE WILLIAMS ELEM
OUIDA SPRINGER ELEMENTARY
SHARON SHANNON ELEMENTARY
VIRGINIA REINHARDT ELEM
BILLIE STEVENSON ELEMENTARY
ELEMENTARY TOTALS
Elementary Percent Change
Elementary Absolute Change

Current
2015/16
557
828
641
768
593
574
584
615
570
719
654
595
571
8,269
3.40%
272

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
2016/17
539
876
713
770
583
557
551
625
549
751
691
594
615
8,414
1.75%
145

2017/18
519
905
786
774
554
538
544
621
540
782
744
584
638
8,529
1.38%
116

2018/19
524
936
832
749
553
525
531
645
529
806
791
594
685
8,700
2.00%
170

2019/20
525
964
880
752
547
512
501
655
534
830
836
591
724
8,851
1.75%
152

2020/21
514
982
928
768
523
518
516
651
548
841
889
603
766
9,047
2.21%
195

2021/22
501
1,003
970
760
517
523
514
659
557
866
937
606
810
9,223
1.95%
177

2022/23
507
1,042
1,014
758
525
540
526
683
582
891
980
588
852
9,488
2.87%
265

2023/24
518
1,079
1,057
755
535
560
535
701
597
909
1,024
589
903
9,762
2.88%
274

2024/25 2025/26
525
533
1,115
1,143
1,105
1,152
762
769
543
552
564
570
541
548
719
739
601
608
933
949
1,076
1,124
594
603
950
1,000
10,028
10,290
2.73%
2.61%
266
261

*Yellow box = exceeds stated capacity

Amy Parks-Heath and Ouida Springer likely over capacity fall 2016

By 2019, five elementary schools in Rockwall ISD may exceed stated capacity

19

Ten Year Forecast

By Middle and High School Campus
ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

Current
Campus

Capacity
1,125

2015/16
691

2016/17
771

2017/18
873

2018/19
883

2019/20
860

2020/21
882

2021/22
922

2022/23
967

2023/24
985

J W WILLIAMS MIDDLE SCHOOL

1,050

798

814

834

846

925

835

821

870

849

887

910

MAURINE CAIN MIDDLE SCHOOL

1,050

HERMAN UTLEY MIDDLE SCHOOL

2024/25 2025/26
1,014
1,062

944

973

1,036

1,033

1,051

1,175

1,234

1,165

1,134

1,163

1,208

MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTALS

2,433

2,558

2,743

2,762

2,836

2,892

2,977

3,002

2,968

3,064

Middle School Percent Change

Middle School Absolute Change
ROCKWALL HIGH SCHOOL
ROCKWALL-HEATH HIGH SCHOOL
ROCKWALL ALTERNATIVE H S

0.25%
6
2,421
2,292
53

5.14%
125
2,539
2,388
53

7.23%
185
2,573
2,456
53

0.69%
19
2,691
2,521
53

2.68%
74
2,777
2,607
53

1.97%
56
2,893
2,649
53

2.94%
85
2,987
2,744
53

0.84%
25
2,999
2,905
53

-1.13%
34
3,065
3,006
53

3.23%
96
3,093
3,085
53

3,180
3.79%
116
3,127
3,120
53

HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS

4,766

4,980

5,082

5,265

5,437

5,595

5,784

5,957

6,124

6,231

6,300

High School Percent Change

4.33%

4.49%

2.05%

3.60%

3.27%

2.91%

3.38%

2.99%

2.80%

1.75%

1.11%

High School Absolute Change

198

214

102

183

172

158

189

173

167

107

69

DISTRICT TOTALS

15,468

15,952

16,354

16,727

17,124

17,534

17,984

18,447

18,854

19,323

19,770

District Percent Change

3.18%

3.13%

2.52%

2.28%

2.38%

2.39%

2.57%

2.57%

2.20%

2.49%

2.31%

District Absolute Change

476

484

403

372

398

409

451

463

407

469

446

2,650
2,650

*Yellow box = exceeds stated capacity

Maurine Cain M.S. over 1,000 by fall 2017

Rockwall High School may reach more than 2,500 students by the fall
of 2016

Rockwall-Heath High School may reach 2,400 students by 2017

20

Summary
DFW continues to be a leader in job and population growth by
creating 117,800 jobs in the last 12 months.

The district had 184 2Q15 closings, the highest quarter

closings since 2006
Vacant developed lot supply remains in good position to
sustain new housing growth.
Hays, Shannon and Springer elementary zones have the
highest rates of new home activity, representing more than
64% of the total starts for the district.
RISD can expect an increase of approximately 2,066 students
during the next 5 years.
2020 enrollment projection: 17,534 students

21