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Interested Parties
Christina Coloroso, DCCC National Analytics Director
October 6, 2015

SCHNEIDER LEADS DOLD BY 8 POINTS IN ILLINOIS 10TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

Democratic former Congressman Brad Schneider leads Republican Bob Dold by 8 points in the race for
Illinois 10th congressional district, according to a DCCC survey of likely 2016 general election voters
conducted September 30, 2015.
At the outset of their 2016 rematch,
Schneider holds an 8 point advantage
over Dold, 37% to 29%, with 34% of
the electorate undecided. When
these undecided voters are allocated
according to likely partisanship,
Schneider maintains a 3 point lead
over Dold (44% to 41%, with a
remaining 15% who cannot be
allocated).

SCHNEIDER LEADS AMONG

KEY VOTING BLOCS
In addition to his overall strength, Schneider performs well with key voting blocs whose support will be
vital to a 2016 victory. Among Independent voters, Schneider leads Dold by 15 points. Among women,
he holds an 11 point advantage. For voters who report that they are very likely to vote in the 2016
election, Schneider is ahead of Dold by 6 percentage points.

VOTERS HOLD NET NEGATIVE VIEW OF DOLD

Though Dold is well known to voters in the 10th district, he is not well liked. A plurality of likely voters
hold an unfavorable view of him (32%), compared to just 27% who have a favorable view. This pattern is
even more pronounced among Independents, women, and younger voters.

Illinois 10th congressional district, which includes parts of Cook and Lake counties, is the most
Democratic seat currently held by a Republican in Congress. In 2012, President Obama carried the
district with 58% of the major party vote. In 2014, Schneider lost the seat to Dold by just 4,856
votes.

The data in this memo is from a survey of 470 likely 2016 general election voters conducted September
30, 2015 in Illinois 10th congressional district. Respondents information came from the voter file and
respondents were interviewed over the phone via either a live or an automated survey. The margin of
error is 4 percentage points.