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1
METHODOLOGY
The NBC News Online Poll was conducted online by SurveyMonkey October 13-15, 2015 among a national sample of 4,898 adults aged 18 and over. Respondents for this non-probability survey were selected using an algorithm from among the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Data for this survey have been weighted for age, race, sex, education, and region using the Census
Bureau’s
American Community Survey
to reflect the demographic composition of the United States. Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and measurement error. Polls conducted in one day may include additional error due to the limited time period that panelists have to respond to and complete the survey. To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval to produce an error estimate, meaning we use the weighted data to generate 5000 independent samples and calculate the 95% confidence intervals for the weighted average. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should be taken into consideration in much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error. For example, if 47 percent of voters say they support Candidate A and 43 percent of voters support Candidate B, and the error estimate is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, Candidate A could be supported by as low as 44 percent of voters and Candidate B could have as high as 47 percent of support. Therefore, Candidate A does not have a "lead." The following table provides the unweighted sample sizes and the error estimate that has been calculated in place of the margin of sampling error for a variable that is expected to have close to an even split in most groupings (such as gender):
Group Unweighted N Plus or minus Total sample 4,898 percentage points Republican RVs 1,881 3.2 percentage points Democrat RVs 1,857 3.2 percentage points 18-29 725 4.9 percentage points 30-44 1031 4.4 percentage points 45-64 2276 2.9 percentage points 65+ 866 4.6 percentage points White 3,839 1.5 percentage points Black 353 6.5 percentage points Hispanic 267 7.7 percentage points Other 120 13.3 percentage points
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TOPLINES
Questions 18-20 held for future releases. 1. In general, do you think things in this country are heading in the right direction or the wrong direction? Right Direction Wrong Direction DK/NA 10.13-15.15 29 67 4 9.17-18.15 30 67 2 8.7-10.15 30 68 3 7.13-19.15 33 65 2 6.3-7.15 31 66 3 4.6-8.15 35 64 1 2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Approve Disapprove
Net
Strongly approve Somewhat approve
Net
Strongly disapprove Somewhat disapprove DK/ NA 10.13-15.15 47 23 24 51 37 14 2 9.17-18.15 48 22 26 52 38 14 1 8.7-10.15 45 22 23 54 43 11 1 7.13-19.15 48 24 24 51 38 13 1 6.3-7.15 51 16 35 47 31 16 1 4.6-8.15 51 19 32 48 28 20 0 [SPLIT SAMPLE Q3, Q4, Q5 & Q6, Q7, Q8] 3. Thinking about the 2016 election, if a candidate for president supports raising the federal minimum wage to $15.00 dollars per hour from $7.25, would that make you
more likely to vote for him or her, less likely, or wouldn’t it make much difference to
your vote? More likely to vote for Less likely to vote for Not much difference N/A 10.13-15.15 39 36 23 2 4. Thinking about the 2016 election, if a candidate for president supports stricter gun control laws, would that make you more likely to vote for him or her, less likely,
or wouldn’t it make much difference to your vote?
More likely to vote for Less likely to vote for Not much difference N/A 10.13-15.15 37 40 21 2
3 5. Which of the following comes CLOSER to your view, even if neither is exactly right: [ROTATE RESPONSES] 10.13-15.15 Our country has made the changes needed to give blacks equal rights with whites 52 Our country needs to continue making changes to give blacks equal rights with whites 44 DK/NA 4 6. Thinking about the 2016 election, if a candidate for president supports increasing federal government spending in order to offer free tuition at public universities,
would that make you more likely to vote for him or her, less likely, or wouldn’t it
make much difference to your vote? More likely to vote for Less likely to vote for Not much difference N/A 10.13-15.15 42 35 20 2 7. Thinking about the 2016 election, if a candidate for president supports increased federal regulation over banks, Wall Street investors, and other financial institutions, would that make you more likely to vote for him or her,
less likely, or wouldn’t it
make much difference to your vote? More likely to vote for Less likely to vote for Not much difference N/A 10.13-15.15 44 24 29 3 8. Which of the following comes CLOSER to your view, even if neither are exactly right: [ROTATE RESPONSES] 10.13-15.15 The government should do more to reduce the gap between the rich and everyone else in America 43 The government should do more to ensure everyone in America has the opportunity to reach the highest income class, even if not everyone makes it 52 N/A 5