The Legislative Council Staff is the nonpartisanresearch staff of the Colorado General Assembly.Natalie Mullis, Chief EconomistJason SchrockMarc CareyLeora Starr Kate WatkinsFiona SigallaRon KirkElizabeth HansonDebbie Grunlien
Colorado's economy is slowly recovering from the"Great Recession." The state's educated workforce andfavorable industry mix positions the state to be a leader as business investment recovers. However, weak realestate markets, high debt levels, bank failures, and tightcredit conditions will constrain economic growth over the next few years.
The FY 2009-10 General Fund budget is in balance.The forecast for FY 2009-10 General Fund revenue in-creased $229.9 million relative to December’s forecast.
Revenue available for spending in the General Fundwill be $110.1 million higher in FY 2010-11 than thecurrent FY 2009-10 budget. However, a General Fundshortfall will exist in FY 2010-11. Many of FY 2009-10's budget measures are one-time in nature. In addi-tion, budget estimates in this report do not incorporatecost increases due to rising caseloads and inflation and adrop off in budgetary support from federal stimulusfunds.
A General Fund shortfall will exist in FY 2011-12.
The Referendum C Cap will equal $10.7 billion in FY2010-11, and revenue subject to TABOR will be $1.3 billion below the cap.
After decreasing 71.3 percent to $96.6 million in FY2009-10 due to lower energy prices and sizable taxcredits, severance tax revenue will improve in FY2010-11.
The Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund is in deficitand the state is borrowing money from the Federal TrustFund to meet benefit payments. It will remain in deficitthrough at least the end of the forecast period.
Legislative Council Staff 029 State Capitol BuildingDenver, Colorado 80203(303) 866-3521www.colorado.gov/lcs
Table Of Contents
Executive Summary 2General Fund Revenue 10Cash Fund Revenue 14National Economy 23Colorado Economy 32Colorado Economic Regions 44Appendix A: Historical Data 69
Focus Colorado: Economic AndRevenue Forecast
Colorado Legislative Council StaffEconomics SectionMarch 19, 2010
Photograph taken in Rocky Mountain National Park, July 2009Courtesy of Simon Maghakyan, Legislative Council Staff