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Macro Final

Macro Final

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Published by blueeagle477952
Histirical review of GDP of pakistan
Histirical review of GDP of pakistan

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Published by: blueeagle477952 on Mar 21, 2010
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Historical review of GDP of Pakistan
Allhmad-u-Lillah, for without His blessing we could never conduct this research, though it isimpossible to thank Him enough for this. All respect to his Holy Prophet Hazrat Muhammad (SAW)who brought the light of knowledge when the humanity was wandering in the dessert of ignorance.We would like to thank our parents for their encouragement and suggestion they gave us. They provide us every thing we needed to do this task.We would like to acknowledge the guidance and support of our respected teacher 
whose affection made easy for us.We are also thankful to all those who cooperated with us in the completion of final project, especially to the class fellows, teachers and to all those who directly or indirectly helped us.MACROECONIMICSPage 13/20/2010
Historical review of GDP of Pakistan
Pakistan was a very poor and predominantly agricultural country when it gainedindependence in 1947. Pakistan's average economic growth rate since independence has beenhigher than the average growth rate of the world economy during the period. Averageannualreal GDP growth rateswere 6.8% in the 1960s, 4.8% in the 1970s, and 6.5% in the 1980s.Average annual growth fell to 4.6% in the 1990s with significantly lower growth in thesecond half of that decade.Industrial-sector growth, including manufacturing, was also above average. In the late 1960sPakistan was seen as a model of economic development around the world, and there wasmuch praise for its economic progression. Later, economic mismanagement in general, andfiscally imprudent economic policies in particular, caused a large increase in the country's public debt and led to slower growth in the 1990s. Two wars with India in1965and1971  adversely affected economic growth.
 In particular, the latter war brought the economy closeto recession, although economic output rebounded sharply until thenationalizationsof themid-1970s.
Table - ILong-term structural change and growth1947 1970 2004Population
In million 33 60 151
GDP (current m.p.) Rs. Billion 58 1515,458GDP (US$)billion 3.8 10.892.5Per Capita Income (Constant Rs.) 1,638 2,541 5,767Per Capita Income (US$) 85 170 640Per Capita Income (Current Rs.) 405 80937,495
Production Index 100 219 591Fiber Production Index 100 172 866Water Availability (MAF) 55 76 97Wheat Production (m. tons) 3.3 7.3 20Rice Production (m. tons) 0.7 2.4 5Cotton Production (m. bales) 1.1 3.0 10Fertilizer per ha. Crop (kg) 0 23 212
Manufacturing Production Index 100 234617,047Steel Production (000 tons) 0 0 2203Cement Production (000 tons) 292 265612,957Chemical Production (000 tons) 0 130 758Sugar Production (000 tons) 10 610 4021Cloth Production (000 Sq. meter) 29,581 60,544 657,887
Per Capita Electricity Generation (Index) 1000 1950 9,924Per Capita Electricity (kwh) 6 63 520Road Length (km) 50,367 72,153 255,856Area under Canal Irrigation(mill. ha) 7.9 22.0
 Natural Gas billion cu. Meters 0 2.9 26.1Road Vehicles per 1000 Persons 1 3 33Telephone Connections per 1,000 Persons 0.4 2.5 33.4TV Sets per 1,000 Persons 0 1.5 26.3
Social Indicators
Primary Enrolment Rate 5 22 84Population per Doctor 23,897 4,231 1,397Population per Nurse 369,318 13,141 3,261
Historical review of GDP of Pakistan
Literacy Rate 11 20 54Infant Mortality Rate N.A. 117 80Total Fertility Rate N.A. 6.3 4.0Population with Access to Safe Water N.A. 25 90Under Five Mortality Rate N.A. 181 102
Table – IIChanges in key macroeconomic indicatorsOctober 1999October 2004 Change in theIndicator
GDP Growth Rate 4.2% 6.4% PositiveInflation 5.7% 4.6% PositiveFiscal Deficit/GDP -6.1% -2.4% PositiveCurrent Account/GDP -4.1% +1.4% PositivePublic Debt/GDP 100% 68% PositiveExternal Debt/GDP 52% 37% PositiveInterest 50% 25% PositivePayments/Govt.RevenuesRemittances US$ 88 million perUS$ 300 million per Positivemonth monthExports US$ 7.8 billion US$ 13 billion PositiveTax Revenues Rs. 391 billion Rs. 600 billion PositiveRupee-Dollar Parity Depreciating Stable PositiveForeign Direct Investment US$ 472 million US$ 950 million PositiveForeign Exchange Reserves US$ 1.6 billion US$ 12.0 billion PositivePoverty Incidence 33% Data not available but Negativeperhaps risingPoverty Related Expenditure Rs. 133 billion Rs. 161 billion PositiveUnemployment 6% 8% Negative
Pakistan was one of the few developing countries that had achieved an average growth rate of over 5 percent over a four decade period ending 1988-89.Consequently, the incidence of  poverty had declined from 40 percent to 18 percent by the end of the 1980s. Table I laysdown the main economic and social indicators in 1947 and compare them with 2003. Theoverall picture that emerges from a dispassionate examination of these indicators is that of acountry having made significant economic achievements but a disappointing record of socialdevelopment. The salient features of Pakistan’s economic history are:A Country with 30 million people in 1947 couldn’t feed itself and had to import all its foodrequirements from abroad. In 2002, the farmers of Pakistan were not only able to fulfill thedomestic needs of wheat, rice, sugar, milk of 145 million people at a much higher per capitaconsumption level, but also exported wheat and rice to the rest of the world.• An average Pakistani earns about $500 in 2003 compared to less than $100 in 1947. In UScurrent Dollar terms the per capita income has expanded more than five fold and in constantterms three times.• Agriculture production has risen five times with cotton attaining a level of more than 10million bales compared to 1 million bales in 1947. Pakistan has emerged as one of the leadingworld exporter of textiles.Pakistan hardly had any manufacturing industries in 1947. Five decades later, themanufacturing production index is 12,000 with the base of 100 in 1947. Steel, cement,automobiles, sugar, fertilizer, cloth and vegetable ghee, industrial chemicals, refinedMACROECONIMICSPage 33/20/2010

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