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PROBABILITY

• Introduction

• Probability is the study of random or


nondeterministic experiments. If a die is tossed
in the air, then it is certain that the die will come
down but it is not certain that, say, a 6 will
appear. However, suppose we repeat this
experiment of tossing a die; let s be a number of
success, i.e. the number of times a 6 appears
and let n be the number of tosses. Then it has
been empirically observe that the ratio f = s/n,
called the relative frequency, becomes stable
in long run ( approaches a limit ). This stability is
the basis of probability theory.
• Historically, probability theory began with the
study of games of chance, such as roulette and
cards.
Principle of counting

1. Technique of Counting

Understanding the principle of counting,


some techniques such as tree diagram,
crossing table, and ordered pair will be
applied to solve the following problem.
A girl has 4 bags and 3 pairs of shoes with
different colors. In how many ways she can
used the pairs of bag and shoes?
• a. Tree Diagram

…..(b1,s1)
s1
…..(b1,s2)
s2
b1 …..(b1,s3)
s3
…..(b2,s1)
s1
b2 …..(b2,s2)
s2
…..(b2,s3)
s3
…..(b3,s1)
s1
b3 …..(b3,s2)
s2
…..(b3.s3)
s3
…..(b4,s1)
s1
b4 …..(b4,s2)
s2
…..(b4,s3)
s3
• b. Crossing Table

s s1 s2 s3
b
b1 (b1,s1) (b1,s2) (b1,s3)
b2 (b2,s1) (b2,s2) (b2,s3)
b3 (b3,s1) (b3,s2) (b3,s3)
b4 (b4,s1) (b4,s2) (b4,s3)
• C. Ordered Pairs
• Let B = {b1, b2, b3, b4} , S = {s1, s2,s3}
and the pair of bag and shoes C then
C = {(b1,s1), (b1,s2), (b1,s3), (b2,s1),
(b2,s2), (b2,s3), (b3,s1), (b3,s2), (b3,s3),
(b4,s1), (b4,s2), (b4,s3)}.
The Principle of Counting

• If some procedure can be performed in n1


different ways, and if following this procedure, a
second procedure can be performed in n2
different ways, and if following this second
procedure, a third procedure can be performed
in n3 different ways, and so the forth; then the
number of different ways, the procedures can be
performed in the other indicated is the product of
n1.n2. n3.
• Example :

1. Suppose a car number plate contains two distinct letters followed


by three digits with the first digit not zero. How many different car
number plates can be printed?

Solution

The first letter can be printed in 26 different ways, the second


letter in 25 different ways ( since the letter printed first can not be
chosen for the second letter), the first digit in 9 ways and each of
the other two digits in 10 ways. So, there are
26.25.9.10.10 = 585 000 different plates can be printed.

2. In how many ways John, Romy, Grace and Tomy can stand up to
arrange their self in a row?

Solution

At the first place 4 persons can stand up, at the second 3 persons,
the third 2 persons, and the last 1 persons. So, there are
4.3.2.1 = 24 different ways they can stand up in a row.
2. Permutations

Factorial
The product of positive integers from 1 to n
inclusive occurs very often in mathematics and
hence is denoted by the special symbol n! (read ”n
factorial”)
So, n! = 1.2.3.
P ( n, r ) 
n ! …. .(n-2)(n-1)n
(n  r )!

Defined that
0! = 1

2! = 1.2 = 2 8! 8.7.6!
4! = 1.2.3.4 = 24   8.7  56
6! 6!
• An arrangement of a set of n objects in a given order is
called a
permutation of the object ( taken all at a time).
An arrangement of any r < n of these objects is called an
r-permutation or a permutation of the n objects taken
r at a time.
• The number of permutation of n different objects taken r
at a time is denoted by P(n,r)
• Theorem
n!
P ( n, r ) 
(n  r )!
• Example
1. How many permutations are there if 3
objects, say a, b, and c taken 2 at a time?
Solution
The permutations of 3 objects a, b, and c are
ab, ac, bc, ba, ca, and cb. So, there are 6
permutations.
Or, by the theorem

3! 3.2.1
P(3, 2)   6
(3  2)! 1
2. Find the numbers of permutations of 6 objects, say a, b, c, d, e, f
taken three at a time. In other words, find the number of “three
letter words” with distinct letters that can be formed from the above
six letters.
The first letters can be chosen in 6 letters different ways, following
this, the second letter can be chosen in 5 different ways, following
this, the last letters can be chosen in 4 different ways. By the
principle of counting then there are

6.5.4 = 120

three letters words without repetitions from the six letters or there
are 120 permutations of 6 objects taken 3 at a time. By the
theorem,

6! 6.5.4.3!
P(6,3)    120
(6  3)! 3!
• In the special case that n = r, then
n! n! n!
P (n, n)     n!
(n  n)! 0! 1

• Example
How many permutations are there of 3 objects,
say a, b, c
Solution
There are 3! = 1.2.3 = 6 such permutations.
• Permutation with repetitions
Theorem
The number of permutations of n objects with n1
are alike, n2 are alike, n3 are alike, …, nr are alike
is
n!
n1 !.n2 !...nr !
• Examples
1. Form all possible 3 letter words using the letters from the
word DAD.
Solution
If both D’s are distinguished by giving the subscripts then
the word becomes D1AD2. So, there are 3! = 3.2.1= 6
permutations of different objects D1,A,D2. Observe the
following permutations
D1AD2, D1D2A, D2AD1, D2D1A, AD1D2, AD2D1 but
D1AD2=D2AD1, D1D2A=D2D1A and AD1D2=AD2D1 if
the subscripts are removed. So there are 3 letter words
using the letters from the word DAD because there are 2
identical D’s. Or by the theorem that the number of
permutations of 3 objects with 2 objects alike are
3! 3.2!
 3
2! 2!
• How many different permutations can be formed
from the word MATEMATIKA

• Solution
There are 10 objects with 2 M’s are alike, 3 A’s
are alike and 2 T’s are alike. So there are
10! 10.9.8.7.6.5.4.3.2!
  151200
2!.3!2! 2.1.3.2.1.2!
different permutations.
• Circular Permutation

• Let 3 persons A, B, and C sit by surrounding an around table.


They can sit in 2 arrangements:
1. ABC, BCA and CAB
2. ACB, CBA and BAC
By circular permutation the 3 persons can sit surrounding an
around table by 2 different ways or if 3 objects formed by
circular then we have 2 permutations.
If there are n objects formed by circular we consider that 1 object
doesn’t move to other side (or stays at a point) and the other
(n – 1 ) objects form the permutations.
So, the numbers of circular permutation of n different
objects are
nP(circular) =(n – 1 ) !
• Examples
• 1. 6 persons joint a meeting and sit around a
circular table. In how many ways the sitting
formations can be arranged?
Solution
There are (6 – 1)! = 5! = 120 different formations.

2. Mom, Dad and their 8 children sit around a


circular table. In how many ways they can sit if
Mom and Dad don’t sit closely.
Solution
If there is no condition will be circular
permutation (10-1)! = 9!
If Mom and Dad sit closely will be circular
permutation 2.(10–2 )! = 2.8! Because Mom
and Dad must sit closely and Dad at the left
side of Mom or Dad at the right side of Mom
So, by those conditions that Mom and Dad
don’t sit closely there are 9! – 2.8!= 282 240
different ways.
3. Combinations
• Suppose we have a collection of n different objects. A
combination of this n objects taken r at a time, or r-
combination, is any subset of r elements. In other word,
an r-combination is any selection of r of the n objects
where order doesn’t count.
• The number of combination of n objects taken r at a time
denoted by
C (n, r)
Theorem n!
C (n, r ) 
r !(n  r )!
• Examples
• 1. The combination of the letters a, b, c, d taken 3
at a time are
abc, abd, acd, bcd
By the theorem
4! 4.3!
C (4,3)   4
3!(4  3)! 3!.1

Observe that the following combinations are equal


abc, acb, bac, bca, cab, cba
Each denotes the same set {a,b,c}.
• 2. How many committees of 3 can be formed from 8
peoples?

Solution
• Each committee is essentially a combination of 8
peoples taken 3 at a time. So

8! 8.7.6.5!
C(8,3)    56
3!(8  3)! 3.2.1.5!
different committees can be formed.
Binomial Theorem
 n  nr r n
( a  b)    a b
n

r 0  r 

n 1 n ( n 1)
 a  na b 
n
1.2 a n2b 2  ...  nab n1  b n
th
The k term of Binomial

If  and
 are the coefficients of a and b then the
k th
term of ( a   b) n denoted by uk

 n  ( n k 1) ( k 1)
uk   ( n  k 1)
. ( k 1)
. a .b
 k  1
• Example
• 1. Expand and simplify ( x 2  2 y )6
• Solution
( x 2  2 y )6
 ( x 2 )6  16 ( x 2 )5 ( 2 y )  1.2
6.5
( x 2 ) 4 ( 2 y ) 2  1.2.3
6.5.4
( x 2 )3 ( 2 y)3
 1.2.3.4
6.5.4.3
( x 2 ) 2 ( 2 y ) 4  1.2.3.4.5
6.5.4.3.2
( x 2 )(2 y )5
 6.5.4.3.2.1
1.2.3.4.5.6 ( x ) (2 y )
2 0 6

 x12  12 x10 y  60 x8 y 2  160 x 6 y 3


240 x 4 y 4  192 x 2 y 5  64 y 6
The Probability of an event
• Experiment
An experiment is very often to apply in statistics, such as tossing a coin, a die
or taking a card from the box.
The characteristic of an experiment:
a. any kind of experiment has some possible outcomes
b. any possible outcome is very hard to be predicted.

• Sample space and event


The set of all possible out outcomes of some given experiment is called the
sample space. A particular outcome, i.e. an element in S, is called a sample
point or sample. An event {a} consisting of a single sample where a is a
subset of S and called an elementary event. The empty set  and S are
events.
 is called impossible event and S the certain or sure event.
• Example
Experiment : Toss a die and observe the number that
appears on the top. Then the sample space consist of the six
possible numbers:
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Let A be the event that an even number occurs, B that an odd
number occurs and C that a prime number occurs:
A = {2, 4, 6}, B = {1, 3, 5}, C = {2, 3, 5}
Then:
A  C  {2,3, 4,5, 6}is the event that an even or a prime number
occurs.
B  C  {3,5} is the event that an odd prime number
occurs.
C c  {1, 4,6} is the event that a prime number does not
occurs.
Note that A and B are mutually exclusive: A  B   or A and
B can not occur simultaneously.
• Theorem
If the sample space S consists of similar sample
points, so each point has the same probability
and E is the expected event then

n( E )
P( E ) 
n( S )
• The complementary probability
c
If A is the complementary of an event A
c
then the probability of event A :

P( A )  1  P( A)
c
• Examples
1. A die tossed once.
Find
a. the sample space, and the number of
sample points.
b. the probability of odd number occurs.
c. the probability of the number less than 5
occurs
• Solution
a. S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}; n(S) = 6
b. E = {1, 3, 5}; n(E) = 3
n( E ) 3 1
P( E )   
n( S ) 6 2

c. Let B be the number less than 5 occurs,


B = {1, 2, 3, 4}; n(B) = 4

n( B ) 4 2
P( B)   
n( S ) 6 3
2. Two coins be tossed together once.
Find the probability of one head appears.
Solution
Any coin consist of two sides, head (H) and tail
(T).
Two coins be tossed once. So, the sample space
S = {(H,H), (H,T), (T,H),(T,T)}; n(S) = 4.
H is the event that a head appears.
So, H = { (H,T), (T,H)}; n(H)= 2.
n( H ) 2 1
P( H )   
n( S ) 4 2
3. In a box there are 4 red, 3 blue and 2
white marbles. Taken at random 3 marbles
one time.
Find the probability that the marbles taken
consist of
a. 2 red and 1 blue marbles.
b. 1 red, 1 blue and 1 white marbles.
c. the 3 marbles are red
• Solutions

C (4, 2).C (3,1) 6.3 3


a.P (2r ,1b)   
C (9,3) 84 14
C (4,1).C (3,1).C (2,1) 4.3.2 2
b.P(1r ,1b,1w)   
C (9,3) 84 7
C (4,3) 4 1
c.P(3r )   
C (9,3) 84 21
• Probability of Compound Event
A compound event is an event that has more
than one sample point. A compound event can be
composed from simple event or other compound
events by using several operations of set, such
c
A
as complementary, union, and intersection.
1. Complementary Probability of an event.
Let S be a set of natural number less than 6 and
A is an event of multiplication of 2 occurs when
tossing a die. So, S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5}, n(S) = 5 and
A ={2, 4}, n(A) = 2.
The complementary of event A denoted by Ac
C
So, Ac = {1, 3, 5}, n( Ac ) =3 , and P( AC )  n( A )  3
n( S ) 5
Or, by complementary probability, we can write that
P ( AC )  1  P ( A)
2
 1
5
3

5
• Probability of mutually exclusive event

Two events are mutually exclusive if they are disjoint, or

A B  
. In other word, A and B are mutually exclusive if
they can not be occured simultaneously.

If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then


P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)
• Examples
• 1. From an ordinary pack of 52 bridge cards taken a card.
Find the probability that an As or a King are taken.
Solution
S = {a pack of bridge card}, then n(S) = 52
A = {As}, then n(A) = 4.
B = {King}, then n(B) = 4
It’s mutually exclusive event.
P ( A  B )  P ( A)  P ( B )
n( A) n( B )
 
n( S ) n( S )
4 4
 
52 52
2

13
• 2. A die tossed once.
Find the probability of numbers < 3 or > = 4 appear.
Solution
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, then n(S) = 6
A = { the event that numbers < 3 appear}
= {1, 2}, then n(A) = 2.
B = { the event that numbers > = 4 appear}
= {4,5, 6}, then n(B) = 3.

A B  
P ( A  B )  P ( A)  P ( B )
n( A) n( B )
 
n( S ) n( S )
2 3 5
  
6 6 6
• 3. A pouch contains 10 red, 18 green, and 22 yellow marbles.
From the pouch taken a marble at random, find the probability
that the red or yellow marbles are taken.
Solution
n(S) = 10 + 18 + 22 =50
Let A be the event that the red marble taken.
B be the event that the green marble taken.
C be the event that the yellow marble taken.
The events A, B, and C are mutually exclusive events.
n( A) C (10,1) 10 n(C ) C (22,1) 22
P( A)    ; P(C )   
n( S ) C (50,1) 50 n( S ) C (50,1) 50

AC  
P ( A  C )  P ( A)  P (C )
10 22 32
  
50 50 50
• Probability of Two Events
If A and B are two events, then

P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)  P( A  B)

Example
1. A die tossed one time.
A is the event that the prime numbers occurs
B is the event that the multiplication of 3 occurs
Find the probability of the prime or multiplication of 3
occurs.
Solution
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}; n(S) = 6
A = {2, 3, 5}; n(A) = 3
B = {3, 6}; n(B) = 2
A  B  {3}; n( A  B )  1
P ( A  B )  P ( A)  P ( B )  P ( A  B )
n( A) n( B ) n( A  B )
  
n( S ) n( S ) n( S )
3 2 1
  
6 6 6
4

6
2

3
• 2. Two dies are tossed together once.
Find the probability that number 3 of first die or sum is 5
of both dies appear.
Solution
n(S) = 36
A is the event that number 3 of the first die appears.
B is the event that sum is 5 of both dies appear
A = {(3,1),(3,2),(3,3),(3,4),(3,5),(3,6)}; n(A) = 6
B = {(1,4),(2,3),(3,2),(4,1)}; n(B) = 4
A  B  {(2, 3)}; n ( A  B )  1
n ( A) n( B ) n( A  B )
P( A  B)   
n( S ) n( S ) n( S )
6 4 1
  
36 36 36
9

36
1

4
• The Probability of Stochastic Independent Event
• Two events are stochastic independence if an event
doesn’t influence the other, or an event doesn’t depend to
the other.
If two events A and B are stochastic independence, then
P ( A  B )  P ( A).P ( B )
Example
1. Two coins are tossed together.
Let A is the event that head of the first coin appears and B is the event
that head of the second coin appears. Find the probability of A and B .
Solution
Because there are 2 coins, then the event of the first coin don’t influence
to the event of the second coin.
P ( A  B )  P ( A).P ( B )
1 1 1
 . 
2 2 4
The other solution

A  B  {( H , H )}; n( A  B)  1; n( S )  4
n( A  B ) 1
P( A  B)  
n( S ) 4

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