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ENERGY VISIONUPDATE 2010Towards a MoreEnergy EfficientWorld
World Economic Forum
in partnership withIHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates
 
 Abt the Wrld Ecmic Frm
 The World Economic Forum is an independent international organization committed to improving the state o the world byengaging leaders in partnerships to shape global, regional and industry agendas. Incorporated as a oundation in 1971 andbased in Geneva, Switzerland, the World Economic Forum is impartial and not-or-prot; it is tied to no political, partisan or national interests. (www.weorum.org)
 Abt IHS CERA
IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates (IHS CERA) is a leading advisor to energy companies, governments, nancialinstitutions, technology providers and consumers. IHS CERA delivers critical knowledge and independent objective analysison energy markets, geopolitics, industry trends and strategy. (www.ihscera.com)IHS CERA’s expertise covers all major energy sectors – oil and rened products, natural gas, coal, electric power andrenewables, as well as energy demand, climate and eciency – on a global and regional basis. IHS CERA’s team oexperts is headed by Daniel Yergin, Chairman, author o
The Prize: The Epic Quest or Oil, Money and Power,
or which he won the Pulitzer Prize, and o
Commanding Heights: The Battle or the World Economy.
IHS is the leading source or thecritical inormation and data on which the upstream oil and gas industry operates worldwide, and delivers insight on theglobal economy, security and the standards on which the world’s industries unction. (www.ihs.com)
 Abt the Eergy Idstry Partership
 The Energy Industry Partnership programme o the World Economic Forum provides the chie executive ocers and senior executives o the world’s leading companies as well as select energy ministers with the opportunity to engage with their peers to dene and address critical industry issues throughout the year. Identiying, developing and acting upon thesespecic industry issues is undamental to the Forum’s commitment to deliver sustainable social development ounded uponeconomic progress. The Energy Community Leader or 2009/2010 has been Mr. José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo, ChieExecutive Ocer, Petrobras. The Energy Community Leader or 2010/2011 will be Mr. Gérard Mestrallet, Chairman andChie Executive Ocer, GDF SUEZ. As o 1 November 2009 the Energy Industry Partner companies include: ABB, Applied Materials, BC Hydro, BP, Centrica, IHS CERA Inc., Chevron Corporation, Duke Energy, EDF, EGL, EnBW,Eni, E.ON, Eskom, Essar Global, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Fluor Corporation, Fortum, GDF SUEZ SA, GE, GridPoint,Iberdrola, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, LUKOIL Oil Company, Oerlikon, Pemex, Petrobras, PETRONAS, RelianceIndustries, Renova, RusHydro, RWE, Sasol, Saudi Aramco, Shell, Siemens, SK Corporation, Socar, StatoilHydro, TokyoElectric Power, Total, Vattenall, Vestas Wind Systems, Xenel Group
 Abt the Advisry Bard
 The Advisory Board helps drive the Industry Partnership towards analysis, insights and conclusions that ull the Forum’smission. It helps ensure the quality o Industry Partnership meetings, reports and projects. The Advisory Board currentlyconsists o the ollowing select and renowned experts:
Fatih Birl,
•
Chie Economist and Head, Economic Analysis Division, International Energy Agency (IEA), Paris
Keeth Rg,
•
 Thomas D. Cabot Proessor o Public Policy and Proessor o Economics, Harvard University, USA
Daiel Yergi,
•
Chairman, IHS CERA, USA
Wrld Ecmic Frm
91-93 route de la CapiteCH-1223 Cologny/GenevaSwitzerland Tel.: +41 (0)22 869 1212Fax: +41 (0)22 786 2744E-mail:
contact@weorum.org www.weorum.org
 © 2010 World Economic Forum. All rights reserved. No part o this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any orm or byany means, including photocopying and recording, or by any inormation storage and retrieval system.
1
 
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 WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
Message from the Energy Community Leader 2009: Towards a
More Efcient World
By José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo, Chief Executive Ofcer, Petrobras, Brazil 
I welcome the opportunity, on behal o the Energy Community o the World Economic Forum, to introduce the
Energy Vision 2010
because o the importance o energy eciency in all parts o today’s world – and its even greaterimportance or tomorrow. For developing and developed nations, or countries that import energy and or thosethat export energy – and or the entire world community – energy eciency is ront and centre.The long-term prospect o increasing energy demand is very challenging. It can contribute to high productioncosts and complex geopolitical issues, thus reinorcing the trend o rising prices and volatility. On the other hand,rising demand creates incentives or the development o new and promising alternative technologies. Indeed, thepersistent quest or access to energy sources and energy security shapes national policies. Demand or alternativeenergy is growing at a ast pace, although rom a small base, and the pursuit o a low carbon economy is likely toescalate urther as a result o increasing social pressure.In the years ahead we will pave the road towards a more energy ecient world, with the objectives o sustainablegrowth and long-term benets, including energy security. A lasting lesson rom the recent economic crisis isthat business as usual is not sustainable. It is time to change paradigms. Energy eciency is central to the newparadigm.The potential o energy conservation is unquestionable. The wise use o resources is among the most valuableinitiatives we can take to ace our challenges. Within this context, public policies and regulation are crucial, as the pricesystem takes into account only part o the energy production costs, and may disregard environmental externalitiesand market ineciencies. Price incentives and business opportunities, together with suitable and transparent rules,are required or successul public policies. Public policy is also essential to accelerate the adoption o advancedeciency standards or household and industrial appliances and equipment, and to promote innovative nancingschemes or energy eciency.Technology plays a critical role in enabling energy eciency. On the energy supply side, the use o increasinglyecient procedures, technology and equipment is evident. On the demand side, the search or higher eciencyis particularly evident in the automotive industry, through incentives to incorporate hybrid and electric vehicles inthe market. New engines, new vehicles, new modes o transportation, new structures o urban planning and betterutilization o logistical networks – and new attitudes – all these will urther increase transportation eciency.New equipment and new orms o production organization contribute to the gains rom energy eciency. Similarly,the link between energy and mobility requires a new concept o urban lie, new building standards, ecient masstransportation and better organization o the economic space.The energy landscape o the world will change with renewables in response to environmental challenges. However,alternative sources o energy will be marginal additions to primary energy supply in the medium run. There is noobvious scenario or 2030 where oil, natural gas and coal do not predominate. Even i new sources o supplygrow in an intense way, the size o the existing inventory o vehicle feets, energy systems, housing and industrialprocesses implies gradual and slow progress.Notwithstanding the gradual reduction o oil’s share o the global energy mix, the use o oil will increase in absoluteterms over the next years. The absolute number o barrels will increase, even though the relative share may decline. It isthus necessary to ocus not only on the consumption o ossil uels, but also on the quality o such consumption.Challenges associated with energy production and consumption prompt the human mind to be creative. At the coreo current international negotiations to ght climate change, the world energy system stands out, as it is responsibleor 75% o the total greenhouse gas emissions. Its eective contribution to a sustainable uture implies substantialconservation policies and eciency gains in concert with development and use o new energy technologies.Sustainability requires society to adopt new economic and sociocultural norms. Cooperative programmes areneeded to identiy and implement structural changes. Apparent limitations may become opportunities to shape abetter uture or generations to come. All these issues are what make energy eciency so important a topic. But what are the routes to a more energyecient world? And how will we get there? These are the questions we explore in this
Energy Vision.
We do soin the report that ollows and the deeply inormed Perspectives that are integral to our energy vision. From theresearch and writing o this report, we have learned a great deal that we are pleased to share with you. I certainlywant to express the appreciation o the Energy Community to those who have created this report and directed theoverall project and to all who, in contributing their Perspectives, share their experiences and insights, all o whichare so timely and so relevant.

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