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ICWAI Cost Benefits Risk Analysis for Projects study material download

ICWAI Cost Benefits Risk Analysis for Projects study material download

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ICWAI Cost Benefits Risk Analysis for Projects-Financial Management & International Finance study material download
ICWAI Cost Benefits Risk Analysis for Projects-Financial Management & International Finance study material download

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Fianancial Management & international finance
502
Investment Decisions
Study Note - 6
INVESTMENT DECISIONS
6.1 Cost Benefits Risk Analysis For Projects
This Section includes :
l
Techniques of Risk Analysis
l
Convention Techniques
l
Statistical TechniquesINTRODUCTION :
In the capital budgeting decisions, if there is an element of risk involved, it must be consideredwhile evaluating investment proposals. There are several techniques available to analyse therisk perception of capital budgeting proposals. These techniques differ in their approach andmethodology to analyse risk in the evaluation process.
TECHNIQUES OF RISK ANALYSIS :Conventional Techniques
1.Risk Adjusted Discount Rate2.Certainty Equivalents Approach3.Sensitivity Analysis
Statistical Techniques
1.Probability Distribution Approach2.Simulation Analysis3.Decision Tree Approach
CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES :
There are several conventional techniques which attempt to incorporate the risk or capital budgeting proposals. Some of these techniques have been discussed hereunder.
1. Risk Adjusted Discount Rate (RADR)
Every firm is basically risk averse and tries to avoid risk. However, it may be ready to take riskprovided it is rewarded for undertaking risk by higher returns. So, more risky the investmentis, the greater would be the expected return. The expected return is expressed in terms of discount rate which is also termed as the minimum required rate of return generated by aproposal if it is to be accepted. Therefore, there is a positive correlation between risk of aproposal and the discount rate.
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503
Fianancial Management & international finance
A firm at any point of time has a risk level emanating from the existing investment. The firmalso has a discount rate to reflect that level of risk. In case, there is no risk of the existinginvestment, then the discount rate may be known as the risk free discount rate. If the risk levelof the new proposal is higher than the risk level of the existing investment, then the discountrate to be applied to find out the present values of the cash flows of the proposals havingvarying degree of risk should be evaluate at different discount rates. The difference betweenthe discount rate applied to a riskless proposal and to a risky proposal is known as risk pre-mium.RADR attempts to incorporate risk by modifying the discount rate. A risk premium is addedto the riskless discount rate, to reflect the risk inherent in the project. The reasoning behindadding the risk premium is quire simple. i.e., the greater the risk, the higher should be thedesired return from a proposal. The RADR approach to handle risk in a capital budgetingdecision process is a more direct method. The RADR is based on the premise that riskiness of a proposal may be taken care of, by adjusting the discount rate. The cash flows from a morerisky proposal should be discounted at a relatively higher discount rate as compared to otherproposals whose cash flows are less risky. The RADR may be expressed in terms of Equation
RADR = Risk Free Return + Premium for facing the Risk
The risk free discount rate is described as the rate of return on the government securities. Sinceall the business proposals have higher degree of risk as computed to zero degree of risk of government securities, the RADR is always greater than the risk free rate. Moreover, as therisk of a proposal increases, the risk adjustment premium also increases. The relationship between the risk free rate, the risk premium, the RADR and the risk return line has been ex-plained in the figure below :
Risk-free rate, Risk Premium and Risk-return relationship.
 
ReturnRisk AdjustmentPremiumRisk-freeRateCBAOX1X2Risk-Return Line
RiskThe figures reflects that if the risk of proposal is zero, then the minimum required rate of return, i.e., the discount rate will be just equal to the risk free rate, i.e., OA. However, as therisk increases, say, up to X1, then the required rate of return also increases from OA to OB. Thecomponent AB is known as the risk adjustment premium. Similarly, if the level of risk of aproposal is X2, then the risk premium may be AC and the discount rate for such proposal will
 
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Fianancial Management & international finance
504
Investment Decisions
 be equal to OC. The risk premium being added to the risk free rate reflects the greater riskattached to a proposal. As the risk increases, the risk premium also increases and the RADRalso increases. The RADR is used to find out the risk adjusted NPV of the proposal as perEquationRANPV=
0]1[
1
 RaCFi
ni
+
=
RANPV=Risk adjusted NPVCF
1
=Cash inflows occurring at different points of timeC
0
=Initial cash outflowRa=Risk adjusted discount rate.Difference between the NPV method, discussed in the previous chapter, and the RADR is thatthe rate of discount used in RADR, i.e., Ra is higher than the original discount rate, i.e., R. TheRADR reflects the return that must be earned by a proposal to compensate the firm for under-taking the risk. The higher the risk of a proposal, the higher the RADR would be and thereforethe lower the NPV of a given set of cash flows. The decision rule of RADR is that a firm shouldselect the proposal if the RANPV is positive or even zero and reject the proposal if it is nega-tive. In case of mutually exclusive proposals, the rule may be : select the alternative which hasthe highest positive RANPV. In case, the firm is applying the IRR technique for evaluation of capital budgeting proposals, then IRR of the project can be compared with the RADR, i.e., theminimum required rate of return to accept or reject the proposal.
Evaluation of RADR Approach—
The RADR approach considers the time value of moneyand explicitly incorporates the risk involved in the project by making the discount rate as afunction of the proposal’s risk. The RADR helps finding out the expected future wealth gener-ated by a risk project over and above the RADR, However, the RADR suffers from the basicshortcoming relating to the determination of the risk adjustment premium or the RADR itself.Moreover, the RADR does not adjust the future cash flows which are risky and uncertain.
2. Certainty Equivalents (CE)
The CE approach to incorporate the risk is to adjust the cash flows of a proposal to reflect theriskiness. The CE approach attempts at adjusting the future cash flows instead of adjusting thediscount rates. The expected future cash flows which are taken as risky and uncertain areconverted into certainty cash flows. Initiatively, more risky cash flows will be adjusted downlower than the less risky cash flows. The extent of adjustment will vary and it can be eithersubjective or based on a risk return model. These adjusted cash flows are then discounted atrisk free discount rate to find out the NPV of the proposal. The procedure for the CE approachcan be explained as follows:1.Estimate the future cash flows from the proposal. These cash flows do have some degreeof risk involved.
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