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UPDATE:updatedfiguresandvariationswillbehighlightedinthisdocumenteachweek–andyoucanfindalldetailsoftheprogressoftheexperimentatoursite:www.tweetminster.co.uk

Canword-of-mouthpredicttheGeneralElectionresult?

ATweetminsterexperimentinpredictivemodelling

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TheforthcomingGeneralElectionisprobablygoingtobeoneoftheclosestinrecentUKhistory,withthepollsterssuggestingvarioushungparliamentandminorityLabourorminorityConservativegovernmentscenarios.DuringtheGeneralElectioncampaign,TweetminsterisconductinganexperimentaroundwhetheractivityonTwittercorrelatestoelectoralsuccess.Ourinspirationforthisexperimentcomesfromlastyear’sGeneralElectioninJapan,whenagroupofsoftwareengineersandPhDgraduatesfromTokyoUniversityundertookastudyanalysingthecorrelationbetween‘onlinebuzz’andelectionresults.Theaimofthestudywastoassessifword-of-mouthmentionsofcandidatescouldhelptopredictwhichoneswouldbesuccessful.Thestudyfoundthatinamajorityofconstituenciesthemostmentionedcandidatewontheseat(seeReferencesbelow).WethoughtitwouldbeinterestingtorunasimilarexperimenttotheJapanesestudyintheUKusingTwitter.Fromnowuntiltheelectionwewillbetrackingthemostmentioned(i.e.postsandconversationsabout)constituenciesandcandidatesonTwitterandusingthisdatawewilltrytomapthecorrelationbetweenbuzz,word-of-mouthandtheeventualelectionresultsthroughpredictivemodelling.Today,tokick-offthestudy,we’republishingastartingsetoffindingsandthemethodologythatwe’llbeadopting.Thispapersetsouttheinitialfindingsofourexperimentalmodel,whichwewillupdateasthecampaignproceeds.Atthisstage,ourmodelsuggeststhattheoverallelectionresultcouldseeasmallLabourmajorityorahungParliament,withtheclosely-foughtcontestbetweentheLiberalDemocratsandtheConservativesinanumberofmarginalsintheSouthWesttiltingtowardstheLibDems;withLabourandtheLiberalDemocratsperformingbetterinLondonthanrecentpollshaveshown;withdecliningSNPsupportinScotland;andwiththeroleofotherpartiesinkeyseatsallinfluencingfactorsinshapingourpredictions.OurdatasetisfedfromalltheconstituenciesrepresentedonTwitter:1.

ConstituencieswithacandidateusingTwitter2.

Frequentlymentionedconstituencies3.

Highprofileconstituencies,i.e.keymarginalsandcabinet/shadowcabinetmembers’constituenciesthatarementionedonTwitter.

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Thestudywillbeadynamicanalysis-wewillupdatethepredictionsandtrackthevariationsinpredictedelectionresultsaspollingdaygetscloser,allowingustoseeifthepassageoftimeaffectsanysignificantshiftsinpredictedoutcomes.Forexample:WilltheLeader’sTVdebatesinmid-Aprilmakeadifferencetotoday’spredictions?Asdiscussionintensifiestowardstheelectionweexpecttoseethemodelreflectanychangesinthebalanceofonlinebuzz.Twomilliontweets(andcounting)arebeingprocessedandanalysedforthisstudy.ThedatasetwillbeupdatedasnewcandidatesjoinTwitterduringthecourseofthecampaign,findingsandvariationsreleasedthroughoutthecampaignandthefinalreportwillbepublishedaftertheelection.Pleasenotethatthescopeofthisexerciseisn’ttocompetewithpollingmethodologies-itisanexperimentalstudythataimstousepredictivemodellingaroundadynamicdatasettodetermineiftherearecorrelationsbetweenword-of-mouthonsocialmediaandelectionresults.Allpredictionsaremadeonanexperimentalbasisandthereliabilityofthemethodforpredictingelectionresultswillbeassessedoncethestudyiscompleted.

Nationaltop-linefigures

AsofMarch26

April2

12th18

May4

2010therewere376384389402427433constituenciesrepresentedonTwitter.Topredictthetop-linenationalfiguresnoweightingisapplied-wecountthemostmentionedcandidateineachofthe376402427433constituenciesanalysed–givingafirstpastthepostpredictionwhichisthenevenlyappliedtotheUKasawhole.Thisrevealsthefollowingtop-linebreakdownbasedonfrequencyofmentions:

ConservativesLabourLiberalDemocratsOthers34%36%3533%35%35%(nc)35%33%32%30%30%(nc)22%2328%26%27%(+1)9%107%9%8%(-1)

OnaUNS,thiswouldtranslateintoaLabourmajorityofc.14seatsLabourshortof26292444

45seats.IfweassumeasimilarmarginoferroroftheJapanesestudy,therangeofresultsforthewholeUKsuggestedbythesenumbersgiveusvarioushungparliamentscenarios,fromLabourandConservativesafewseatsshortofaworkingmajoritytoaslimLabourmajorityforeitherparty.Thefullanalysisbehindthefindingsispresentedbelow,followingconstituency-levelpredictions.

Constituency-levelmodelling

Forconstituency-by-constituencypredictionstheonlyweightingthatwewillapply(tothefrequencyofmentionsanalysisabove)istoonlycountseatswhereatleast

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onecandidatefromthethreemajorpartiesisrepresentedandmentionedonTwitter.Thisbringsdownthenumberofconstituenciesanalysedforconstituencylevelpredictionsto324367.Basedoncandidatementionswithintheseconstituencies,the324367seatswouldbedistributedinthefollowingway:

ConservativesLabourLiberalDemocratsOthers126148131138seats135151142138seats5

455837977seats109111214seats

Amongstotherparties,themodelpredicts:

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AdeclineinSNPsupport

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NosignificantchangeinPlaidCymrusupport

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StrongperformancesfortheGreenPartyinBrightonandNorwich

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AhighlikelihoodofaGreenPartyMPemergingfromoneoftheseconstituencies.ThelowlikelihoodofanIndependentMPs,despiteacoupleofpositiveperformances.

Thekeybattlegrounds

Duringthecourseofthisstudywewillpaycloseattentiontokeybattlegrounds.Wedefinetheseasconstituencieswherethedifferenceinmentionsbetweencandidatesis20%orless.

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Severalinitialfindingsofinterestemergefromthedataofaround50keyseats:

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AnimportantnumberofseatsarebeingcloselycontestedintheSouthWestbetweentheConservativesandtheLiberalDemocrats.ThemetricsadoptedinthisstudyshowthatinmanyoftheseseatstheLiberalDemocratsaregeneratinggreaterbuzz.ThisbuzzfiguresupportsthestrongLibDemseatpredictioninthetop-linefiguresabove.However,itisworthpointingoutthattheLibDemshaveaproportionatelyhighernumberoftheirMPsonTwittercomparedtotheConservativeswhichprobablymeanstheactualresultswillbelowerthanpredictedfortheLibDemsandcommensuratelyhigherthanpredictedfortheConservativesintheseseats.OurdataindicatesthattargetseatsrepresentedonTwitterincludeChippenham,MidDorset&NorthPoole,SouthWestNorfolkandSouthEastCornwall.

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BrightonKemptown,BrightonPavillion,LutonSouth,ManchesterWithington,NorthWarwickshire,NorwichNorth,NorwichSouth,SouthDerbyshire,Cambridge,Gravesham,Lancaster&Fleetwood,Rochford,SouthendEastandLancaster&FleetwoodaretheseatsonTwittershowingthenarrowestmarginsbetweenthevariouspartiescontestingthem.Thisindicatesthattheyaretheoneswherethepartiesaremostactivelycampaigning.ThedatafortheseconstituencieswouldalsoindicatestrongperformancesfortheGreenPartyinBrightonandNorwich.