Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Rating Changes
Upgrading to Outperform on Strong Q4/09 Earnings and Ebbing Liquidity P. Sklar
Wescast Industries
Concerns
DirectCash Income Fund Downgrading to Market Perform; Q4/09 Results in Line A. Shah
Industry/Macro Comments
Energy - Royalty Trusts Weekly Royalty Trust Report – Week Ending March 26, 2010 G. Tait
North American Pipelines Natural Gas IQ C. Kirst
Financials - Real K. MacIndoe
REITers Digest Canadian Real Estate/REIT Weekly (Ending March 5, 2010)
Estate/REITS
Transportation - Rails Tracking Shipments – Week 11 Rail Traffic – Intermodal Rebound R. Cousins
Quantitative Analysis Relative Strength Filter — Outperforming, Not Overbought M. Steele
Quantitative Analysis Market Elements M. Steele
Economic Research A.M. Notes Economics
Disclosure Statements
To view important Disclosure Statements go to http://research-ca.bmocapitalmarkets.com/Company_Disclosure_Public.asp
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Back to Index
Company presentation in Toronto. David Beatty (CEO) and Alex Penha (Director, Corporate
Rio Novo (RN)
Development).
Company presentation in Montreal. Bob McFarlane (EVP & CFO) and Robert Mitchell (Investor
TELUS (T)
Relations).
Bert Hazlett
Marketing in Boston
(Pharmaceuticals Analyst)
Karen Short
Marketing in Chicago
(Food Retailing Analyst)
Economics/Industry Data
Time Data Period BMO Capital Previous Consensus
Markets Estimate Period
08:30 am Cdn. Industrial Product Price Index Feb. (e) - 0.1% +0.3% unch
08:30 am Cdn. Raw Materials Price Index Feb. (e) - 0.1% +3.3% -1.0%
09:00 am U.S. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index Jan. (e) -1.0% y/y -3.1% y/y
10:00 am U.S. Conference Board Consumer Mar. (e) 50.0 46.0 50.0
Confidence Index
Company presentation in Chicago. Armin Martens (President & CEO) and Jim Green
Artis REIT (AX.UN) Mar. 31
(CFO).
Mike Vinciquerra
(Exchanges & Discount Brokers Marketing in Boston Mar. 31
Analyst)
Dan Salmon
(Marketing Services & Advertising Marketing in Chicago Mar. 31-Apr. 1
Agencies Analyst)
BMO Capital Markets Calendar of Events
Karine MacIndoe
Marketing in the Mid-Atlantic region Apr. 1
(Real Estate & REITs Analyst)
Dan Salmon
(Marketing Services & Advertising Marketing in the Pacific Northwest Apr. 5
Agencies Analyst)
Wayne Hood
Marketing in New York Apr. 5-6
(Broadline Retailing Analyst)
Andrew Kaip
Marketing in Boston & New York Apr. 5-7
(Precious Metals & Mining Analyst)
Company presentation in Toronto. Bob Bell (President & CEO) and Candace
INV Metals (INV) Apr. 6
MacGibbon (CFO).
Gordon Tait
Marketing in Vancouver Apr. 6
(Royalty & Income Trusts Analyst)
Meredith Bandy
Marketing in Boston Apr. 6
(Coal Analyst)
Connie Maneaty
(Personal Care & Household Products Marketing in Richmond & Atlanta Apr. 6
Analyst)
Company presentation in Boston & New York. Scott Perry (CFO) and Anne Day
Gammon Gold (GAM) Apr. 6-9
(Director, IR).
Joanne Wuensch
(Medical Technology & Devices Marketing in the Mid-West Apr. 7
Research Analyst)
Karine MacIndoe
Marketing in Vancouver Apr. 7
(Real Estate & REITs Analyst)
Claude Proulx
Marketing in Toronto Apr. 7-8
(Airlines & Special Situations Analyst)
Company presentation in Winnipeg & Vancouver. Tom Schwartz (President & CEO)
Cap REIT (CAR.UN) Apr. 7-8
and Richard Smith (CFO).
Christopher Brown
(Oil & Gas International Producers Marketing in Winnipeg Apr. 8
Analyst)
Alan Laws
Marketing in New York & Connecticut Apr. 8-9
(Oil Services Analyst)
Christopher Brown
(Oil & Gas International Producers Marketing in Toronto Apr. 9
Analyst)
Carl Kirst
Marketing in Boston Apr. 12
(North American Pipeline Analyst)
Wayne Hood
Marketing in Europe Apr. 12-14
(Broadline Retailing Analyst)
Company presentation in Texas, L.A. & San Francisco. Scott Perry (CFO) and Anne
Gammon Gold (GAM) Apr. 12-14
Day (Director, IR).
Company presentation in Europe. Kevin Crutchfield (CEO), Frank Wood (CFO) and
Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) Apr. 12-15
Allen Todd (VP, IR).
Company presentation in Europe. Kevin Crutchfield (CEO), Frank Wood (CFO) and
Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) Apr. 12-16
Allen Todd (VP, Investor Relations).
Randy Ollenberger
(Oil & Gas Producers & Integrated Oils Marketing in Toronto Apr. 13-15
Analyst)
Gordon Tait
Marketing in Montreal Apr. 14
(Royalty & Income Trusts Analyst)
Company presentation in the Mid-Atlantic. Don Mulligan (CFO) and Kristen S. Wenker
General Mills (GIS) Apr. 14
(VP, Investor Relations).
Carl Kirst
Marketing in the Mid-West Apr. 14-15
(North American Pipeline Analyst)
Jim Byrne
Marketing in Vancouver Apr. 15
(Integrated Oils & Refiners Analyst)
Jeffrey Logsdon
Marketing in Boston Apr. 15-16
(Entertainment & Gaming Analyst)
Gammon Gold (GAM) Company presentation in Toronto. Scott Perry (CFO) and Anne Day (Director, IR). Apr. 16
Randy Ollenberger
(Oil & Gas Producers & Integrated Oils Marketing in Montreal Apr. 16
Analyst)
Gordon Tait
Marketing in Toronto Apr. 20-21
(Royalty & Income Trusts Analyst)
Company presentation in Europe. John A. McCluskey (President and CEO) and Jeremy
Alamos Gold (AGI) Apr. 21
Link (Investor Relations Manager).
John Morris
Marketing in the Pacific Northwest Apr. 21
(Apparel Retail Analyst)
Jason Zhang
Marketing in Boston Apr. 27
(Healthcare - Biotech Analyst)
If you are interested in any of the above events, please contact your BMO Capital Markets Institutional Equity/Fixed Income salesperson, or the following:
Toronto Events: Laura Heuff 416-359-5816
Montreal Events: Marjorie Heppell at 514-286-7231
Western Canada Events: Jennifer Crombie 604-443-1452
U.S. Events: Angela Dong 212-702-1969
Europe Events: Hannah Pead 44-207-246- 5418
Impact 1.0
Volume (mln)
1.0
0.5 0.5
Positive. Q4/09 earnings of $0.15 per share were significantly better than our
0.0 0.0
forecast for a loss of $0.26 per share, owing to strong performance in North WCS.A Relative to S&P/TSX Comp
200 200
America and Europe. In addition, whereas we had previously been concerned
100 100
about the company’s liquidity, Wescast indicated the company recently received
a commitment to extend its credit facility by two years. The current facility 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0
expires in April 2010. Lastly, Wescast’s financial statements no longer carry a Last Data Point: March 26, 2010
This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 4 to 6.
Back to Index
20 20
Event
15 15
DirectCash reported in-line Q4/09 results. EBITDA/unit of $0.57 was a penny
shy of our estimate of $0.58 but a penny higher than last year's $0.56. 10 10
5 5
Impact 2
Volume (mln)
2
Slightly Negative. 1 1
0 0
DCI.UN Relative to S&P/TSX Comp
Forecasts 200 200
100 100
We are decreasing both our 2010 and 2011 EBITDA/unit estimates by $0.15 to
$2.40 and $2.50 from $2.55 and $2.65, respectively 0 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Last Data Point: March 26, 2010
We are downgrading DirectCash to Market Perform from Outperform to reflect Rev. ($mm) $89 $97 $101 $105
Net Income ($mm) $2 $15 $18 $15
a total potential return of 13%. The fund’s unit price has nearly doubled from EBITDA ($mm) $26 $29 $30 $31
year-ago levels and we believe appreciation over the coming quarters will be
Quarterly EBITDA/unit Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
more modest. We expect annual EBITDA growth of 4% over 2010 and 2011 to 2008A $0.49 $0.52 $0.51 $0.56
primarily come from the deployment of ATMs in Mexico and the continued 2009A $0.57 $0.58 $0.60 $0.57
2010E $0.58 $0.60 $0.62 $0.60
roll-out of the prepaid MasterCard product. The fund indicated that it is
Dividend $1.38 Yield 8.9%
currently evaluating its options for conversion to a “high dividend paying Book Value $4.74 Price/Book 3.3x
Units O/S (mm) 12.5 Mkt. Cap ($mm) $193
corporation” and plans to approach unitholders in Q3/10. It sports a Float O/S (mm) 5.6 Float Cap ($mm) $86
conservative payout ratio, which we believe will most likely enable it to Wkly Vol (000s) 52 Wkly $ Vol (mm) $0.7
Net Debt ($mm) $40.3 Next Rep. Date May (E)
maintain most, if not all, of its current cash distribution when it converts into an
Notes: All values in C$
income tax paying corporation toward the end of 2010. The current monthly Major Unitholders: Management (about 45%)
First Call Mean Estimates: Not Available
cash distribution of $0.115 yields an attractive 8.9%.
This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 5 to 7.
Back to Index
March 30, 2010
Securities Info
Lifting 2010 Attendance Forecast on Film Slate; Price (29-Mar) $20.25 Target Price $26
Raising Estimates and Target 52-Wk High/Low
Mkt Cap (mm)
$20/$14
$1,152
Dividend
Yield
$1.26
6.2%
Shs O/S (mm, BASIC) 56.9 Float O/S (mm) 55.6
Options O/S (mm) 4.6 ADVol (30-day, 000s) 192
Event
Price Performance
With better visibility to a quality film slate in 2010, we are raising our
CINEPLEX GALAXY INCOME FD (CGX.UN)
attendance forecast to 73.1 million from 70.5 million. Our new forecast Price: High,Low,Close(US$)
22
Relative to S&P 500
160
implies 4.4% y/y attendance growth on 1.6% more screens (roughly 20 net 20
140
opened screens). 3-D and live event ticket premiums are expected to provide 18
120
incremental revenue in 2010, but our higher attendance forecast is not 16
14
entirely due to the 3-D draw. As such, our raised revenue, EBITDA, and EPS 100
12
estimates are due primarily to incremental customer traffic based on the 80
10
entire 2010 film slate and only to a lesser degree on higher ticket prices. 8 60
Volume (mln)
15 15
Impact 10
5
10
convinced that this year’s slate can draw more customers than last year’s. Last Data Point: March 25, 2010
Valuation/Financial Data
Recent 2.5% pricing increases, combined with better first-quarter film results
(FY-Dec.) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E
(up over 20% in Canada) set a better tone for 2010 film revenues. On-screen DCPU $1.86 $2.14 $2.55 $2.75
advertising continues to pick up, a positive from a high margin business. P/DCPU 7.9x 7.4x
First Call Cons.
FCF $1.85 $2.39 $2.24 $2.38
Forecasts P/FCF
EBITDA ($mm) $145 $161
9.0x
$182
8.5x
$199
We are raising our 2010 DCPU estimate to $2.55 from $2.42. We are also EV/EBITDA 7.9x 7.3x
Rev. ($mm) $850 $964 $1,039 $1,075
raising our 2011 estimate to $2.75 from $2.55, both on attendance and pricing. EV/Rev 1.4x 1.3x
Quarterly DCPU 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
2009A $0.38 $0.63 $0.67 $0.46
Valuation 2010E $0.50 $0.70 $0.78 $0.57
We are raising our 9-15 month price target for CGX.UN to $26 from $24. Our Balance Sheet Data (31-Dec)
Net Debt ($mm) $293 TotalDebt/EBITDA 2.1x
target is based on a DCF analysis that uses a 7.0x terminal EBITDA multiple. Total Debt ($mm) $380 EBITDA/IntExp na
Net Debt/Cap. 29.5% Price/Book 1.8x
Notes: All values in C$.
Source: BMO Capital Markets estimates, Bloomberg, FactSet, Global
Recommendation Insight, Reuters, and Thomson Financial.
We continue to rate CGX.UN OUTPERFORM.
Please refer to pages 5 to 7 for Important Disclosures, including the Analyst's Certification.
(Back to Index)
March 29, 2010
the average rate for a USD strengthened to $1.05 CAD versus $1.23 last 130
20
year, contributing $7 million to gross margin. This led to a 260 bp gain in 120
EBITDA margin to 13.9%, which was in line with our forecast. 15
110
10
100
Impact
5 90
The company maintained a somewhat conservative view toward FY2010. 10
Volume (mln)
10
Please refer to pages 5 to 7 for Important Disclosures, including the Analyst's Certification.
Back to Index
Drill Bits
March 29, 2010
Index Performance:
Weekly YTD
Week Ending: 26-Mar Change Change
S&P/TSX ET Index: 325.43 -0.7% 5.7%
S&P/TSX E&P Index 3,765 -1.8% -2.6%
S&P/TSX Composite 31,756 0.1% 2.4%
Commodity Performance:
WTI Oil (US$/bbl): $80.00 -0.8% 0.8%
AECO Gas (C$/Mcf): $3.77 -0.8% -35.0%
US$/C$ Exchange Rate $0.9741 -0.9% 2.4%
For the week, the S&P/TSX Canadian Energy Trust Index decreased
100
90
0.7%, while the S&P/TSX E&P Index declined by 1.8%. Year to 80 ET Index
TSX Co mp.
date, the Energy Trust Index is up 5.7%, compared to a 2.6% 70 TSX Comp.
E&P Index
decrease for the E&P Index and a 2.4% increase for the S&P/TSX 60
50
Composite. Jan-07 M ay-07 Oct-07 Feb-08 Jul-08 No v-08 A pr-09 A ug-09 Jan-10
WTI crude oil ended the week at US$80.00/bbl (C$82.13), a N o t e : last data po int M arch 26, 2010 So urce: B M O Capital M arkets, B lo o mberg
decrease of 0.8% over last week’s close. WTI crude oil has averaged
WTI Oil (US$/bbl) and AECO Gas (C$/Mcf)
US$70.18/bbl over the past 12 months and US$78.57/bbl year to $ 150 $ 15.00
date. AECO natural gas closed the week at C$3.77/Mcf, a decline of $ 135 $ 13.50
0.8% from last week. AECO has averaged C$3.99/Mcf over the past WTI
AECO Gas (C$/Mcf)
$ 120 $ 12.00
WTI Oil (US$/bbl)
The top three performing royalty trusts last week were VET (2.1%),
$ 90 $ 9.00
$ 75 $ 7.50
PGF (1.8%), ZAR (1.4%), while the weakest performance came AECO
$ 60 $ 6.00
from AAV (-8.2%), DAY (-6.5%), NAL (-4.0%). $ 45 $ 4.50
This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 13 to 14.
Back to Index
at least until the market sees more conviction in reduced drilling activity. Until that Natural Gas in Storage (Bcf): +11 to 1,626
happens (1Q conference calls?) and with further pressure likely on the $5.38 2010 Vs. this week last year -1 to 1,655
Vs. this week 5-yr avg -37 to 1,505
consensus (vs. BMO estimate of $4.75), we think the natural gas trade will remain
Natural Gas Directed Rig Count: +2 to 941
muted. To be sure, we have no intent of catching a falling commodity knife, Weekly Change 0.2%
particularly in the pipeline space, but we do note that the relative position of many Y-o-Y Change 16.2%
in our sector—providing downside protection via utility assets and hedging, with Stock Performance: Weekly
long-term upside via E&P and/or midstream—has actually led to notable US Gas Diversifieds -1.3%
US Gas Utilities -1.0%
outperformance YTD versus the E&P and utility indices, a trend that we expect Canadian Pipelines 0.2%
will continue. Top performers in our sector include OUTPERFORM-rated El Paso Canadian Trusts -0.3%
UTY (Philadelphia Utility Index) -1.6%
(EP, $17 price target), Williams (WMB, $28 price target) and Southern Union XOP (S&P E&P SPDR) -2.9%
(SUG, $32, price target) along with MARKET PERFORM-rated Spectra (SE, $23 OSX (Oil Service Index) -2.2%
S&P 500 (SPX) 0.6%
price target), all of which have outperformed the EPX and UTY indices by 13%- 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.3%
15% YTD. Stock Performance: YTD
US Gas Diversifieds 2.1%
Short interest update: NiSource takes the mantle. As shown by the latest US Gas Utilities 2.3%
biweekly update (Mar 25), NI’s short position increased 230 basis points to 4.6% Canadian Pipelines 1.3%
Canadian Trusts 8.5%
versus 2.2% average for the group (although given its liquidity, days to cover are UTY (Philadelphia Utility Index) -5.0%
only 2.9 days vs. the 2.0 day average). We suspect rising short interest is related XOP (S&P E&P SPDR) -1.3%
OSX (Oil Service Index) 2.2%
more to pair trading given the stock’s 7.5% outperformance of the utility index S&P 500 (SPX) 4.6%
YTD, with further upside likely limited until the 2Q resolution of the NIPSCO rate 10-Year US Treasury Yield 0.3%
case (for which we assume a neutral outcome in our $17 price target). * A ll data priced as o f clo se M arch 26, 2010 in US$
So urce: B lo o mberg, EIA , Waterbo rne, B aker Hughes, P latts, Co mpany data.
REITers Digest
Canadian Real Estate/REIT Weekly
(Ending March 26, 2010)
which slightly outperformed the MSCI U.S. REIT Index’s Price Only Performance (Indexed to 100)
S&P/TSX Composite
1.3% (7% last quarter; 93.5% last year) and outperformed the 115
US Financials
9
7
0
6
9
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-1
pr
pr
pr
un
ug
ct
un
ug
ct
un
ug
ct
ec
ec
ec
ec
eb
eb
eb
eb
-O
-O
-O
-A
-A
-A
-D
-D
-D
-D
-A
-A
-A
-J
-J
-J
-F
-F
-F
-F
we switch to 2011, Canadian REITs are trading a 14.5x 2011E
29
29
29
29
29
29
29
29
29
28
29
28
28
29
29
29
29
29
29
29
Source: Bloomberg, BMO Capital Markets
AFFO, maintaining an attractive 4.4 pt discount to U.S. REITs Last Datapoint: March 26, 2010
InnVest (15,000 units by the Mangalji Bros), and on the MSCI US REIT Index 679.87 1.3% 11.0% 6.7% 93.5% -44.9%
convert side, First Capital ($485,000, Series C 6.25% converts, S&P US Financials 215.55 2.1% 9% 10.4% 69.0% -57.7%
by Gazit). There was no insider selling activity reported for the S&P 500 1,166.59 0.6% 5.6% 3.4% 40.1% -25.5%
week. YTD, the most active insider selling was reported in Source: Bloomberg, BMO Capital Markets
CSH.UN, HR.UN, INN.UN and NPR.UN. We are restricted Multiple Spread (US vs Canada) : 4.4x 5.0x 2.5x 6.3x/-1x
This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 21 to 22.
Back to Index
Tracking Shipments
Week 11 Rail Traffic – Intermodal Rebound
Observations – Our colleague Jason Granger covers the trucking and logistics companies in Canada and the United States.
Jason is seeing increasing signs of a turn in demand for trucking and an improvement in spot market truckload rates. He notes
that “a significant amount of capacity has been taken offline in the Truckload sector. As a result of carriers parking vehicles in
2009, an estimated 8–10% of capacity has been removed from the road. Moreover, trucking bankruptcies could provide the
next catalyst for supply contraction in 2010.” With firmer demand alongside supply reduction, industry conditions are
tightening. Truck price competition has been a significant issue in the intermodal segment for the railroads. Any improvement
in truck rates should have follow-on or slipstream effect on rail intermodal rates. Chart 1 is the Cass Freight index. The Cass
index is a measure of monthly freight volumes based on freight transactions processed by Cass (not the month the shipment
takes place). The index uses January 1990 as its base month of comparison. The numbers are not seasonally adjusted. The
bottom in truck freight activity occurred in early 2009. Although the absolute level of activity coming off the bottom is still
quite weak, there has been a fairly steady improvement in demand. More recently, the year-over-year comparisons have been
positive.
1.4 25%
20%
1.3 15%
10%
1.2
5%
0%
1.1
-5%
-10%
1.0
-15%
0.9 -20%
-25%
0.8 -30%
Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10
Source: Cass Information Systems, BMO CM research
This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 18 to 19.
Back to Index
March 30, 2010
Relative Strength Filter Research Comment
Quantitative/Technical Research
Mark Steele
(416) 359-4641
mark.steele@bmo.com
Assoc: Tiberiu Stoichita
Outperforming, Not Overbought
CLICK HERE for a printer friendly version of this report including research disclosures.
• The overall market landscape is positive, but quiet this morning – • When markets are trending, as they are, you buy
we will run some basic screens strong stocks within strong groups. Adding on a
• The bottom three panels show the top 10 stocks in each region technical filter (daily and weekly RSI below 70)
which are 1) outperforming the market and the sector; 2) in good helps to avoid the pitfalls of buying into overbought
industries (top 5 deciles from our Group Selection Report); and 3) stocks.
not overbought on both a daily and weekly RSI.
Figure 1: S&P 500 Members – Outperforming Market & Sector, Strong Groups, Not Overbought on RSI – See Full List
Figure 2: S&P/TSX Composite Members – Outperforming Market & Sector, Strong Groups, Not Overbought on RSI – See List
Figure 3: Global 1200 Members – Outperforming Market & Sector, Strong Groups, Not Overbought on RSI – See Full List
This report was prepared in part by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s)
under FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 2 to 3.
Back to Index
Mark Steele
(416) 359-4641
mark.steele@bmo.com
Assoc: Tiberiu Stoichita
Equities advanced, yet index levels remained within the range of last The Australian dollar led a broad-based advance against the U.S.
week; the energy sector led on the back of a $2.50 gain in crude oil. dollar – this commodity currency also benefits from a large yield
The bond market was relatively quiet; U.S. 10-year treasuries traded differential and hawkish RBA governor – BMOChart.
another inside day. Metals and Energy (ex natural gas of course) led a broad based
commodity rally.
Levels*
Currencies (USD per) Commodities Government 10- Yr Benchmark Equity Indices & Sentiment
Symbol H/L Level %Chg Symbol H/L Level %Chg Symbol H/L Level Chg Symbol H/L Level %Chg
DXY 81.27 -0.5% DJ UBS 132.07 1.8% U.S. 3.87 0.02 S&P 1200 1,347 0.6%
EUR 1.3479 0.5% WTI Oil 82.42 3.0% Canada 3.58 0.02 S&P 500 1,173 0.6%
CHF 0.9412 0.3% NMX Gas 3.84 -0.8% Germany 3.13 -0.02 S&P/TSX 12,030 0.6%
GBP 1.4982 0.6% Gold 1,110.7 0.3% France 3.46 -0.02 Euro STOXX 2,947 0.2%
JPYx10 0.1082 0.1% Silver 17.38 2.8% Switzerland 1.91 -0.00 FTSE 100 5,711 0.1%
CAD 0.9793 0.5% Platinum 1,627.0 1.9% Italy 3.92 -0.00 Hang Seng 21,237 0.9%
AUD 0.9173 1.5% Palladium 473.5 3.4% Spain 3.83 -0.01 Topix 966 -0.1%
NZD 0.7102 0.9% CMX Cu H 352.95 4.0% Greece 6.29 0.09 S&P/ASX 4,897 0.0%
BRL 0.5565 1.3% LME Al 3m 1.04 2.8% U.K. 3.98 -0.06 Shang/Shen 3,359 2.6%
MXNx10 H 0.8039 0.5% LME Ni 3m H 10.88 1.7% Australia 5.79 0.05 Sensex30 H 17,711 0.4%
ZAR 0.1350 0.3% LME Zn 3m 1.06 4.6% Hong Kong 2.71 0.00 CDX IG 5Yr 85.13 -2.2%
KRWx10 0.8845 0.9% Lumber 281.00 -3.1% India 7.84 -0.03 TRIN 1.03 49%
SGD 0.7149 0.4% Corn 357.00 0.2% Japan 1.41 0.02 VIX 17.59 -1.0%
Moves
Currencies (spot) Commodities Government 10- Yr Benchmarks Equity Indices
AUD LME Zn 3m U.K. Shang/Shen
BRL CMX Cu India
Hang Seng
KRW Palladium France
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 0.10 0.05 0.00 -0.05 -0.10 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0%
Sectors
S&P Global 1200 S&P Europe 350 S&P 500 S&P/TSX Composite
Energy Utilities Energy Energy
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%
Source for all data and graphics in this publication: BMO Capital Markets, Bloomberg, Thomson
* H/L = at a new closing 52- wk High/Low; / = within 10% of the 52- week High/Low; Colour codes are inverted for bond and sentiment indications
This report was prepared in part by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s)
under FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 8 to 9.
Market Elements
Daily Charts
3- Month View with 50- and 26- Day Moving Averages
Euro/Greece – Greece priced a 5bn euro 7-year bond – Bloomberg, FT
Aussie Dollar pivots higher on Hawkish RBA signal (next policy meeting April 6) – FT; the AUD is a rate differential driven currency – BMOChart
Breakout in copper follows the move in nickel on Friday
S&P 500
S&P/TSX Composite
S&P Global 1200 ex U.S. & Canada S&P 500 S&P/TSX Composite
Name
SECURITY_NAME Symbol
TICKER % Chg
Chg Name
SECURITY_NAME Symbol % Chg
TICKER Chg Name
SECURITY_NAME Symbol Chg
TICKER % Chg
Energy Petroleo Brasileiro SA PBR/A US 2.2% Southwestern Energy Co SWN 8.0% Precision Drilling Trust PD-U 4.9%
TonenGeneral Sekiyu KK 5012 JP 1.8% Massey Energy Co MEE 7.0% Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd AAV 3.8%
PetroChina Co Ltd 857 HK 1.6% Denbury Resources Inc DNR 4.2% Trinidad Drilling Ltd TDG 3.6%
Technip SA TEC FP -0.9% Tesoro Corp/Texas TSO 0.4% Bonavista Energy Trust BNP-U -1.3%
Santos Ltd STO AU -0.9% Consol Energy Inc CNX 0.4% ARC Energy Trust AET-U -1.5%
Cairn Energy PLC
SECURITY_NAME CNE LN
TICKER -1.6%
Chg ConocoPhillips
SECURITY_NAME COP
TICKER Chg0.3% Baytex ET
SECURI ner gy Trust
Y_NAME BTE-U -2.3%
TICKER Chg
Materials Gerdau SA GGB US 6.0% Titanium Metals Corp TIE 6.0% Equinox Minerals Ltd EQN 6.8%
Cia Siderurgica Nacional SA SID US 4.8% International Flavors & Fragra IFF 5.1% SEMAFO Inc SMF 6.7%
Mitsubishi Materials Corp 5711 JP 3.9% Allegheny Technologies Inc ATI 4.7% Teck Resources Ltd TCK/B 4.1%
Orica Ltd ORI AU -1.9% Airgas Inc ARG -0.4% Jaguar Mining Inc JAG -1.5%
Nippon Paper Group Inc 3893 JP -2.3% PPG Industries Inc PPG -0.5% HudBay Minerals Inc HBM -1.5%
OJI Paper Co Ltd
SECURITY_NAME 3861 JP
TICKER -2.9%
Chg Dow Chemical Co/The
SECURITY_NAME DOW -1.8%
TICKER Chg Gabriel Resources Ltd
SECURITY_NAME GBU -3.5%
TICKER Chg
Industrials Obayashi Corp 1802 JP 2.6% Precision Castparts Corp PCP 2.6% Russel Metals Inc RUS 2.5%
SMC Corp/Japan 6273 JP 2.2% Iron Mountain Inc IRM 2.6% Finning International Inc FTT 2.4%
Hochtief AG HOT GR 2.0% First Solar Inc FSLR 2.5% Bombardier Inc BBD/B 2.0%
Alfa Laval AB ALFA SS -1.9% Emerson Electric Co EMR 0.1% Aecon Group Inc ARE -0.5%
Renewable Energy Corp ASA REC NO -3.3% Goodrich Corp GR 0.1% IESI-BFC Ltd BIN -1.0%
Konink lijke Philips Electronic
SECURITY_NAME PHIA NA
TICKER -3.5%
Chg Illinois Tool W orks Inc
SECURITY_NAME ITW -0.0%
TICKER Chg Ritchie Bros Auctioneers Inc
SECURITY_NAME RBA -1.3%
TICKER Chg
Cons Disc Li & Fung Ltd 494 HK 3.6% Expedia Inc EXPE 6.1% Dorel Industries Inc DII/B 2.2%
ITV PLC ITV LN 3.2% International Game Technology IGT 3.8% Quebecor Inc QBR/B 1.9%
Sanyo Electric Co Ltd 6764 JP 2.7% Apollo Group Inc APOL 3.1% Linamar Corp LNR 1.9%
Hyundai Mobis 012330 KS -2.3% Abercrombie & Fitch Co ANF -1.3% Sears Canada Inc SCC -0.3%
OPAP SA OPAP GA -2.5% Ford Motor Co F -2.1% Thomson Reuters Corp TRI -0.8%
Whitbread PLC
SECURITY_NAME WTB LN
TICKER -2.6%
Chg RadioShack
SECURITY_NAME Corp RSH -2.8%
TICKER Chg RONA Inc
SECURITY_NAME RON -1.6%
TICKER Chg
Cons Stap Seven & I Holdings Co Ltd 3382 JP 2.9% Brown-Forman Corp BF/B 2.6% Cott Corp BCB 2.3%
Wilmar International Ltd WIL SP 1.5% Archer-Daniels-Midland Co ADM 2.1% Saputo Inc SAP 1.1%
Centros Comerciales Sudamerica CENCOSUD CI 1.2% Avon Products Inc AVP 2.1% Alimentation Couche Tard Inc ATD/B 0.9%
Shiseido Co Ltd 4911 JP -1.6% Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc DPS -0.4% Loblaw Cos Ltd L -0.6%
Yakult Honsha Co Ltd 2267 JP -2.0% Lorillard Inc LO -1.5% North West Co Fund NWF-U -1.4%
Ajinomoto Co Inc
SECURITY_NAME 2802 JP
TICKER -2.8%
Chg Molso n Coors Brewing Co
SECURITY_NAME TAP -2.1%
TICKER Chg Empire Co Ltd
SECURITY_NAME EMP/A -1.5%
TICKER Chg
Health Care Roche Holding AG RO SW 1.5% Cephalon Inc CEPH 2.9% Biovail Corp BVF 2.8%
Nobel Biocare Holding AG NOBN VX 1.2% Boston Scientific Corp BSX 2.6% SXC Health Solutions Corp SXC 2.1%
Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co FME GR 0.9% McKesson Corp MCK 2.5% CML Healthcare Income Fund CLC-U -1.7%
Astellas Pharma Inc 4503 JP -2.8% Genzyme Corp GENZ -0.0% MDS Inc MDS -2.2%
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd 4502 JP -2.8% St Jude Medical Inc STJ -0.2%
Eisai Co Ltd
SECURITY_NAME 4523 JP
TICKER -3.4%
Chg Medc o Health Solutions Inc
SECURITY_NAME MHS -0.5%
TICKER Chg SECURITY_NAME TICKER Chg
Financials ORIX Corp 8591 JP 5.1% CB Richard Ellis Group Inc CBG 6.9% GMP Capital Inc GMP 2.7%
Shinsei Bank Ltd 8303 JP 3.8% E*Trade Financial Corp ETFC 2.6% Intact Financial Corp IFC 2.1%
Itau Unibanco Holding SA ITUB US 3.4% Morgan Stanley MS 2.0% FirstService Corp FSV 1.9%
Commerzbank AG CBK GR -1.8% KeyCorp KEY -1.8% Manulife Financial Corp MFC -1.0%
Alpha Bank AE ALPHA GA -2.8% Zions Bancorporation ZION -2.2% Primaris Retail Real Estate In PMZ-U -1.5%
Mizuho Financial Group Inc
SECURITY_NAME 8411 JP
TICKER -3.1%
Chg Citigroup Inc
SECURITY_NAME C -3.0%
TICKER Chg Dundee Real Estate Investment
SECURITY_NAME D-U -1.9%
TICKER Chg
Technology Hitachi Ltd 6501 JP 4.5% Amphenol Corp APH 2.3% Celestica Inc CLS 2.2%
Infineon Technologies AG IFX GR 3.5% Linear Technology Corp LLTC 1.6% Open Text Corp OTC 0.3%
Alcatel-Lucent/France ALU FP 2.4% Corning Inc GLW 1.6% Research In Motion Ltd RIM 0.2%
United Microelectronics Corp 2303 TT -1.5% SAIC Inc SAI -1.8% MacDonald Dettwiler & Associat MDA -0.4%
Yahoo! Japan Corp 4689 JP -1.6% Novell Inc NOVL -1.9% CGI Group Inc GIB/A -0.8%
Nintendo Co Ltd
SECURITY_NAME 7974 JP
TICKER -2.5%
Chg EMC Corp/Massachusetts
SECURITY_NAME EMC -2.7%
TICKER Chg SECURITY_NAME TICKER Chg
Telecom Softbank Corp 9984 JP 3.7% American Tower Corp AMT 2.7% TELUS Corp T 0.9%
Vodafone Group PLC VOD LN 3.0% AT&T Inc T 1.0% Manitoba Telecom Services Inc MBT 0.7%
Singapore Telecommunications L ST SP 2.2% MetroPCS Communications Inc PCS 0.7% BCE Inc BCE 0.5%
Cable & Wireless Communication CWC LN -1.3% Qwest Communications Internati Q 0.2% Rogers Communications Inc RCI/B 0.4%
SK Telecom Co Ltd 017670 KS -1.4% Sprint Nextel Corp S -0.3% Bell Aliant Regional Communica BA-U -0.7%
NTT DoCoMo Inc
SECURITY_NAME 9437 JP
TICKER -2.2%
Chg Windstream
SECURITY_NAMECorp WIN -2.4%
TICKER Chg SECURITY_NAME TICKER Chg
Utilities Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras EBR US 4.0% AES Corp/The AES 3.5% Canadian Utilities Ltd CU 1.0%
EDF SA EDF FP 3.7% Sempra Energy SRE 2.6% Just Energy Income Fund JE-U 0.9%
Drax Group PLC DRX LN 2.7% EQT Corp EQT 2.3% TransAlta Corp TA 0.9%
Osaka Gas Co Ltd 9532 JP -1.8% Constellation Energy Group Inc CEG -0.2% Brookfield Renewable Power Fun BRC-U 0.0%
Chubu Electric Power Co Inc 9502 JP -2.3% PG&E Corp PCG -0.4% Atlantic Power Corp ATP -0.7%
Tokyo Gas Co Ltd 9531 JP -2.7% Nicor Inc GAS -0.5% Northland Power Income Fund NPI-U -1.0%
H/L = at a new closing 52- wk High/Low; / = within 10% of the 52- wk High/Low; Blue = S&P/TSX 60 member, Italics = ETF, Bold = move of more than 5%
Red = Canadian incorporated, Blue = U.S. incorporated, Highlighted = S&P Global 1200 Index member
Economic Research
March 30, 2010
Research Comment
A.M. Notes
The state of the wavering U.S. housing market and consumer will be in focus today. At 9 pm ET, the closely watched S&P Case-
Shiller house price index will be released for January. Home values remain below year-ago levels but the declines have become
less deep……from a low of -19% in January of 2009 to a reading of -3.1% in December. In other words, less negative, which is one
of the much-used phrases during this recovery. The month-to-month changes have hovered in the 0.2%-to-0.3% range over the past
few months, which are slower than the 0.7%-to-1.1% gains seen over the three months prior, suggesting that the factors that had
pushed prices up more significantly are now behind us (example: the possible end of the homebuyer tax credit). We’re expecting the
improvement in house prices to head closer to the zero line (and that much closer to positive terrain) but no matter what the reading,
the big unknown of how many foreclosures could flood the market will still be hovering in the background and thus, keep a lid on
any sharper gain in prices. Even with the new homeowner assistance plans that the White House announced last week.
Still, some deals will be seized before the April 30th deadline. See the housing story on page B1 of today’s New York
Times….“Spurt of Home Buying as End of Tax Credit Looms: Nine hundred days after putting their house on the market,
Andrew and Jane Palestini were beginning to think they might be stuck in Iowa forever. The looming expiration of the government’s
housing tax credit pushed them into action. They dropped their price by an additional $10,000, to $235,000. Somewhat to their
shock, a buyer emerged. The house is now under contract. After several disastrous months for home sales across the country, when
volume dropped by 23 percent, the pace appears to be picking up again. These deals will be reflected in the national sales reports
when they become final, this month or next. There is no evidence that prices have begun to move in response to the higher volume.
Indeed, so many homes are coming on the market that prices might well fall further.”
At 10 am, the Conference Board will release its survey of consumer confidence for March. The index is expected to pick up by 4
pts to 50 in the month, and while any improvement is welcomed, such a move would only retrace about half of the prior month’s
hefty fall. Key to watch will be the net ‘jobs hard to get’ component, given that the March nonfarm payroll #s are out on Friday.
Although this component rose in February (bad news), the jobless rate was unchanged at 9.7%. Another increase in the hard to get
series will suggest that the jobless rate is heading higher again after topping out in October. Also, keep an eye on the expectations
component, as it would give a good hint on buying intentions in coming months…on big-ticket items such as cars and homes, other
smaller durable goods such as air conditions, vacuum cleaners, washer/dryers, etc…..as well as on non-discretionary expenses such
as vacations.
Provincial Budget Update: In Canada, the provincial budgets continue to roll in. This week, it
is Newfoundland & Labrador, along with Quebec. After this, leaves Nova Scotia and PEI.
Yesterday, Newfoundland & Labrador reported their new numbers for FY2010/11.
According to our Robert Kavcic, the Province “is forecasting a reduced $194.3 mln deficit
(0.8% of GDP) for FY2010/11, as rebounding offshore oil revenues offset still-strong spending
growth. The deficit is an improvement from the $294.9 mln shortfall now estimated for
FY2009/10, which marks another major oil-fuelled improvement ($148 mln) from December’s
update. Going forward, the Province expects to post deficits averaging $175 mln in each of the
next two fiscal years, as revenues and program spending both post sturdy increases.”
Today, Quebec takes its turn in the spotlight. Our Benjamin Reitzes cautioned in Focus last
week not to “anticipate many goodies, if any, in what will be a “slim” budget according to
Quebec Finance Minister Raymond Bachand. The latest provincial forecast has the deficit
holding steady at $4.7 bln (1.5% of GDP) in 2010/11. Look for some clarity on the savings
measures that were yet to be identified in last year’s budget, as they remain a significant wild
card. Expect a 1 ppt hike in the QST, and some increased user fees, as outlined in the 2009/10
budget, which will boost revenues and bring Quebec towards its goal of a balanced budget by
2013/14.”
Canada’s industrial product prices for February are released at 8:30 am. Look for prices that
are leaving the factory gate to be little changed as the CAD softened a little, on average, in the
month.
Paul Jenkins did not put in his two cents on monetary policy during his speech yesterday to the
Economic Club of Canada in Toronto, but the BoC’s Deputy Governor did address a longer-
term issue……productivity. Calling Canada’s track record of investing in modern,
productivity-enhancing equipment and structures ‘not…impressive”, he stressed the importance
of Canadian companies to boost productivity, given healthy corporate balance sheets, good
profitability, the profits-to-GDP ratio back to its long-term average, low leverage ratios and
high liquidity.
Our Sherry Cooper also weighed in recently with her views on “Canada’s Disturbing
Productivity Performance”. See (Link to Article)
Backgrounders:
“Mortgage rate boost signals rock-bottom era is over: Canadian banks delivered the first
clear sign that the era of rock-bottom interest rates is over by suddenly hiking mortgage rates, a
move that will cost Canadians more to finance home purchases and likely hasten an expected
slowdown of the red-hot housing sector. Surging home sales and prices were already expected
to cool in the second half of this year as more listings hit the market and the Harmonized Sales
Tax adds to purchase costs in Ontario and British Columbia. Hikes on fixed-rate mortgages
announced by three banks Monday are expected to contribute to the slowdown as home buyers
face higher costs amid a growing expectation that interest rates are likely entering a phase of
higher levels.” Globe and Mail, page A1
“Treasury hires M Stanley bankers to offload Citi stake: The Treasury expects to sell its 27
per cent in stake in Citigroup before the end of the year in an “orderly and measured fashion”,
as it tries to turn a profit from one of the most high-profile government investments of the
financial crisis. The Treasury said on Monday that it had hired Morgan Stanley bankers to
handle the sale of about 7.7bn Citi shares, which it received in exchange for its 2008 bail-out.
The government had hoped to begin selling its Citi stake last year, but when the bank’s share
price dropped below $3.20 in December it delayed those plans amid fears that it might lose
money on the investment. Since then, Citi shares have risen about 30 per cent, and at current
prices the Treasury would make about $7.5bn in profits on the sale of the stake.” Financial
Times, page 1
“State Debt Woes Grow Too Big to Camouflage: California, New York and other states are
showing many of the same signs of debt overload that recently took Greece to the brink —
budgets that will not balance, accounting that masks debt, the use of derivatives to plug holes,
and armies of retired public workers who are counting on benefits that are proving harder and
harder to pay. And states are responding in sometimes desperate ways, raising concerns that
they, too, could face a debt crisis.” New York Times, page A1
The USD index bounced off its weakest level in 4 days but still remains relatively soft this
morning as the GBP leads the currency pack following some positive economic data. After
falling to the lowest levels of the year last week, the GBP strengthened towards $1.51 after a
final count on Q4:2009 GDP revealed that the U.K. grew slightly more than expected. In
separate reports, the Nationwide Building Society said U.K. house prices rose a greater-than-
expected +0.7% in March leaving prices 9% above year-ago levels, while the current account
deficit unexpectedly narrowed in Q4 to 1.7 billion pounds from a revised 5.9 billion pound
deficit in Q3 of last year. European markets started the trading session off strong but have
since retreated and remain relatively unchanged (FTSE -0.1%, DAX unch, CAC unch). The
EUR followed the same trajectory and also remains flat on the day.
Commodity prices are mixed this morning… Gold +0.1%… Oil and NatGas +0.1%… Copper
+0.4%.... Grains +0.3-0.9%...
China’s Chen Says Stronger Yuan Can’t Solve Trade Gap… “Chinese Commerce Minister
Chen Deming said increasing the value of the yuan won’t overcome the lopsided trade with the
U.S., and urged American policy makers to avoid confrontation.” Bloomberg
(Link to Article)
Banks come under fire in TV clash… “Britain’s would-be chancellors declared open season
on bankers on Monday night, in a televised pre-election debate that saw the three contenders
for Number 11 pour scorn on alleged greed in the financial services sector.” Financial Times
(Link to Article)
Ireland to launch €81bn bad loan bank… “Ireland will on Tuesday begin operating a new
“bad bank” to house €81bn in bad property loans left over from the financial crisis and set out
new capital requirements that are expected to see the further nationalisation of its banking
sector.” Financial Times
(Link to Article)
Currency Market
Current Change High Low
7:01 AM
US$ Index 81.18 -0.18 81.283 81.006
C$ 1.0189 -0.0022 1.0222 1.0180
C$ (US cents) 98.15 +0.21 97.82 98.23
GBP 1.5085 +0.0096 1.5090 1.4976
EUR 1.3478 -0.0006 1.3533 1.3461
JPY 92.54 +0.08 92.68 92.15
A$ 0.9203 +0.0026 0.9212 0.9161
CNY 6.8258 -0.0006
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