You are on page 1of 27

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

*Click on title to view Comments **Click here to view Calendar of Events

Rating Changes
Upgrading to Outperform on Strong Q4/09 Earnings and Ebbing Liquidity P. Sklar
Wescast Industries
Concerns
DirectCash Income Fund Downgrading to Market Perform; Q4/09 Results in Line A. Shah

Small Cap Stocks


Cineplex Galaxy Income Lifting 2010 Attendance Forecast on Film Slate; Raising Estimates and J. Logsdon
Fund Target
Reitmans (Canada) 4Q in Line; Reiterate OUTPERFORM Rating J. Morris

Industry/Macro Comments
Energy - Royalty Trusts Weekly Royalty Trust Report – Week Ending March 26, 2010 G. Tait
North American Pipelines Natural Gas IQ C. Kirst
Financials - Real K. MacIndoe
REITers Digest Canadian Real Estate/REIT Weekly (Ending March 5, 2010)
Estate/REITS
Transportation - Rails Tracking Shipments – Week 11 Rail Traffic – Intermodal Rebound R. Cousins
Quantitative Analysis Relative Strength Filter — Outperforming, Not Overbought M. Steele
Quantitative Analysis Market Elements M. Steele
Economic Research A.M. Notes Economics

Disclosure Statements
To view important Disclosure Statements go to http://research-ca.bmocapitalmarkets.com/Company_Disclosure_Public.asp
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Back to Index

Earnings & Conference Calls


Atlantic Power Corporation (ATP) EPU Q4/09 BMO EPU ($0.09) vs. $1.30 last year; First Call Mean ($0.02)
416-849-2698 or 866-400-2270; Replay: 866-245-6755 (Passcode: 151181#);
 10:00 am
Webcast: www.atlanticpower.com
Q4/09 BMO EPS US$0.08 vs. US$0.178 last year; First Call Mean US$0.113
Gammon Gold (GAM) EPS
FY/09 BMO EPS US$0.16 vs. US$0.250 last year; First Call Mean US$0.174
888-231-8191 or 647-427-7450; Replay: 416-849-0833 or 800-642-1687 (Passcode:
 10:00 am
58806907#); Webcast: www.newswire.ca/en/webcast/viewEvent.cgi?eventID=2975940

Today's Events & Marketing


Company presentation in Los Angeles & San Francisco. Mike McAllister (VP, Canadian Deep Basin
EnCana (ECA) (Montney & Bighorn)), Todd Brown (Team Lead, Texana (Haynesville)) and Ryder McRitchie (VP,
Investor Relations).

Company presentation in Toronto. David Beatty (CEO) and Alex Penha (Director, Corporate
Rio Novo (RN)
Development).

Company presentation in Montreal. Bob McFarlane (EVP & CFO) and Robert Mitchell (Investor
TELUS (T)
Relations).

Bert Hazlett
Marketing in Boston
(Pharmaceuticals Analyst)

Karen Short
Marketing in Chicago
(Food Retailing Analyst)

Economics/Industry Data
Time Data Period BMO Capital Previous Consensus
Markets Estimate Period
08:30 am Cdn. Industrial Product Price Index Feb. (e) - 0.1% +0.3% unch
08:30 am Cdn. Raw Materials Price Index Feb. (e) - 0.1% +3.3% -1.0%
09:00 am U.S. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index Jan. (e) -1.0% y/y -3.1% y/y
10:00 am U.S. Conference Board Consumer Mar. (e) 50.0 46.0 50.0
Confidence Index

Upcoming Events & Marketing


Company presentation in Los Angeles & San Francisco. Mike McAllister (VP, Canadian
EnCana (ECA) Deep Basin (Montney & Bighorn)), Todd Brown (Team Lead, Texana (Haynesville)) and Mar. 29-31
Ryder McRitchie (VP, Investor Relations).

Company presentation in Chicago. Armin Martens (President & CEO) and Jim Green
Artis REIT (AX.UN) Mar. 31
(CFO).

Ballard Power Systems (BLD) Company presentation in Toronto Mar. 31

Mike Vinciquerra
(Exchanges & Discount Brokers Marketing in Boston Mar. 31
Analyst)

Dan Salmon
(Marketing Services & Advertising Marketing in Chicago Mar. 31-Apr. 1
Agencies Analyst)
BMO Capital Markets Calendar of Events

Karine MacIndoe
Marketing in the Mid-Atlantic region Apr. 1
(Real Estate & REITs Analyst)

Dan Salmon
(Marketing Services & Advertising Marketing in the Pacific Northwest Apr. 5
Agencies Analyst)

Wayne Hood
Marketing in New York Apr. 5-6
(Broadline Retailing Analyst)

Andrew Kaip
Marketing in Boston & New York Apr. 5-7
(Precious Metals & Mining Analyst)

Company presentation in Toronto. Bob Bell (President & CEO) and Candace
INV Metals (INV) Apr. 6
MacGibbon (CFO).

Gordon Tait
Marketing in Vancouver Apr. 6
(Royalty & Income Trusts Analyst)

Meredith Bandy
Marketing in Boston Apr. 6
(Coal Analyst)

Connie Maneaty
(Personal Care & Household Products Marketing in Richmond & Atlanta Apr. 6
Analyst)

Lana Chan & Peter Winter


Marketing in Texas Apr. 6-8
(Financial Institutions Analysts)

Company presentation in Boston & New York. Scott Perry (CFO) and Anne Day
Gammon Gold (GAM) Apr. 6-9
(Director, IR).

Joanne Wuensch
(Medical Technology & Devices Marketing in the Mid-West Apr. 7
Research Analyst)

Karine MacIndoe
Marketing in Vancouver Apr. 7
(Real Estate & REITs Analyst)

Claude Proulx
Marketing in Toronto Apr. 7-8
(Airlines & Special Situations Analyst)

Company presentation in Winnipeg & Vancouver. Tom Schwartz (President & CEO)
Cap REIT (CAR.UN) Apr. 7-8
and Richard Smith (CFO).

Christopher Brown
(Oil & Gas International Producers Marketing in Winnipeg Apr. 8
Analyst)

Alan Laws
Marketing in New York & Connecticut Apr. 8-9
(Oil Services Analyst)

Christopher Brown
(Oil & Gas International Producers Marketing in Toronto Apr. 9
Analyst)

Carl Kirst
Marketing in Boston Apr. 12
(North American Pipeline Analyst)

Wayne Hood
Marketing in Europe Apr. 12-14
(Broadline Retailing Analyst)

Page 2 • March 30, 2010 (Back to Index)


BMO Capital Markets Calendar of Events

Company presentation in Texas, L.A. & San Francisco. Scott Perry (CFO) and Anne
Gammon Gold (GAM) Apr. 12-14
Day (Director, IR).

Company presentation in Europe. Kevin Crutchfield (CEO), Frank Wood (CFO) and
Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) Apr. 12-15
Allen Todd (VP, IR).

Company presentation in Europe. Kevin Crutchfield (CEO), Frank Wood (CFO) and
Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) Apr. 12-16
Allen Todd (VP, Investor Relations).

Detour Gold Corp. (DGC) Company presentation in Europe Apr. 12-16

New Gold (NGD) Company presentation in Europe Apr. 12-16

Randy Ollenberger
(Oil & Gas Producers & Integrated Oils Marketing in Toronto Apr. 13-15
Analyst)

Gordon Tait
Marketing in Montreal Apr. 14
(Royalty & Income Trusts Analyst)

Company presentation in the Mid-Atlantic. Don Mulligan (CFO) and Kristen S. Wenker
General Mills (GIS) Apr. 14
(VP, Investor Relations).

Carl Kirst
Marketing in the Mid-West Apr. 14-15
(North American Pipeline Analyst)

Jim Byrne
Marketing in Vancouver Apr. 15
(Integrated Oils & Refiners Analyst)

Paul Adornato & Richard Anderson


Marketing in Boston Apr. 15
(U.S. REITs Analysts)

Jeffrey Logsdon
Marketing in Boston Apr. 15-16
(Entertainment & Gaming Analyst)

Gammon Gold (GAM) Company presentation in Toronto. Scott Perry (CFO) and Anne Day (Director, IR). Apr. 16

Randy Ollenberger
(Oil & Gas Producers & Integrated Oils Marketing in Montreal Apr. 16
Analyst)

Osisko Mining (OSK) Company presentation in Europe Apr. 19-23

Gordon Tait
Marketing in Toronto Apr. 20-21
(Royalty & Income Trusts Analyst)

Company presentation in Europe. John A. McCluskey (President and CEO) and Jeremy
Alamos Gold (AGI) Apr. 21
Link (Investor Relations Manager).

John Morris
Marketing in the Pacific Northwest Apr. 21
(Apparel Retail Analyst)

Pacific Rubiales (PRE) Company presentation in Europe Apr. 22-23

Page 3 • March 30, 2010 (Back to Index)


BMO Capital Markets Calendar of Events

Romarco (R) Company presentation in Europe Apr. 26-27

Jason Zhang
Marketing in Boston Apr. 27
(Healthcare - Biotech Analyst)

If you are interested in any of the above events, please contact your BMO Capital Markets Institutional Equity/Fixed Income salesperson, or the following:
Toronto Events: Laura Heuff 416-359-5816
Montreal Events: Marjorie Heppell at 514-286-7231
Western Canada Events: Jennifer Crombie 604-443-1452
U.S. Events: Angela Dong 212-702-1969
Europe Events: Hannah Pead 44-207-246- 5418

Page 4 • March 30, 2010 (Back to Index)


Back to Index

March 29, 2010


Wescast Industries Research Comment
Toronto, Ontario
(WCS.A-TSX)

Stock Rating: Outperform


Peter Sklar, CA
Industry Rating: Outperform
(416) 359-5188
Peter.Sklar@bmo.com
Assoc: Andrew McKendry, CA, CFA

Price (29-Mar) $3.30 52-Week High $3.30


Upgrading to Outperform on Strong Q4/09 Earnings Target Price $6.00 52-Week Low $0.64
and Ebbing Liquidity Concerns Price: High,Low,Close
Wescast Industries Inc (WCS.A)
Earnings/Share
5
30
Event 25
0
On March 24, 2010, Wescast released its 2009 financial statements and MD&A. 20
15
Wescast reported Q4/09 earnings of $0.15 per share versus a Q4/08 loss of -5
10
$7.28 per share. 5
0 -10

Impact 1.0
Volume (mln)
1.0

0.5 0.5
Positive. Q4/09 earnings of $0.15 per share were significantly better than our
0.0 0.0
forecast for a loss of $0.26 per share, owing to strong performance in North WCS.A Relative to S&P/TSX Comp
200 200
America and Europe. In addition, whereas we had previously been concerned
100 100
about the company’s liquidity, Wescast indicated the company recently received
a commitment to extend its credit facility by two years. The current facility 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0

expires in April 2010. Lastly, Wescast’s financial statements no longer carry a Last Data Point: March 26, 2010

going concern disclosure. (FY-Dec.) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E


EPS -$8.43 -$1.67 -$0.02 $0.53
P/E na 6.2x
Forecasts CFPS -$0.52 $0.64 $1.95 $2.61
P/CFPS 1.7x 1.3x
After considering Wescast’s Q4/09 results, we have revised our 2010 loss
estimate to $0.02 from $0.96 per share, and our 2011 estimate to earnings of Rev. ($mm) $302 $208 $255 $283
EV ($mm) $63 $24 $55 $56
$0.53 per share from a loss of $0.50 per share. EBITDA ($mm) $9 $11 $28 $37
EV/EBITDA 7.1x 2.2x 2.0x 1.5x
Quarterly EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Valuation 2008A -$0.19 -$0.20 -$0.75 -$7.28
2009A -$0.74 -$0.62 -$0.46 $0.15
Due to the upward revisions to our estimates, we have increased our target price 2010E $0.07 $0.04 -$0.09 -$0.04
to $6.00 from $2.50. Our revised target is based on a projected enterprise value
Dividend $0.00 Yield 0.0%
that is 2.5x (previously 2.3x) our revised 2011 EBITDA forecast. Book Value $16.25 Price/Book 0.2x
Shares O/S (mm) 13.2 Mkt. Cap ($mm) $44
Float O/S (mm) 5.8 Float Cap ($mm) $19
Recommendation Wkly Vol (000s)
Net Debt ($mm)
31
-$1.6
Wkly $ Vol (mm)
Next Rep. Date
$0.1
29-Apr (E)
Based on the return to target, we are upgrading Wescast to Outperform from Notes: All values in C$; Quarterly EPS est. do not include Stock
Appreciation Rights exp.; Subordinate Voting
Market Perform. Despite our more favourable view on the stock, we highlight Major Shareholders: The LeVan family (56%)
that Wescast is not suitable for institutional investors given the company’s First Call Mean Estimates: WESCAST INDUSTRIES INC. (C$)
2009E: -$2.25; 2010E: -$0.96; 2011E: -$0.50
limited float capitalization of $19 million.
Changes Annual EPS Annual CFPS Quarterly EPS Target
2010E -$0.96 to -$0.02 2010E $1.02 to $1.95 Q1/10E -$0.23 to $0.07 $2.50 to $6.00
2011E -$0.50 to $0.53 2011E $1.59 to $2.61 Q2/10E -$0.22 to $0.04 Rating
Q3/10E -$0.28 to -$0.09 Mkt to OP
Q4/10E -$0.23 to -$0.04

This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 4 to 6.
Back to Index

March 29, 2010


DirectCash Income Fund Research Comment
Toronto, Ontario
(DCI.UN-TSX)

Stock Rating: Market Perform 


Atul Shah
(416) 359-4691
Atul.Shah@bmo.com

Price (29-Mar) $15.44 52-Week High $18.06


Downgrading to Market Perform; Q4/09 Results in Target Price $16.00  52-Week Low $8.55

Line DirectCash Income Fund (DCI.UN)


Price: High,Low,Close

20 20

Event
15 15
DirectCash reported in-line Q4/09 results. EBITDA/unit of $0.57 was a penny
shy of our estimate of $0.58 but a penny higher than last year's $0.56. 10 10

5 5
Impact 2
Volume (mln)
2
Slightly Negative. 1 1

0 0
DCI.UN Relative to S&P/TSX Comp
Forecasts 200 200

100 100
We are decreasing both our 2010 and 2011 EBITDA/unit estimates by $0.15 to
$2.40 and $2.50 from $2.55 and $2.65, respectively 0 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Last Data Point: March 26, 2010

Valuation (FY-Dec.) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E


EBITDA/unit $2.08 $2.31 $2.40 $2.50
Our $16.00 target price reflects 7.75x 2010E EV/EBITDA. P/EBITDA 6.4x 6.2x

DCPU $1.81 $2.07 $2.10 na


Recommendation P/DCPU 7.4x na

We are downgrading DirectCash to Market Perform from Outperform to reflect Rev. ($mm) $89 $97 $101 $105
Net Income ($mm) $2 $15 $18 $15
a total potential return of 13%. The fund’s unit price has nearly doubled from EBITDA ($mm) $26 $29 $30 $31

year-ago levels and we believe appreciation over the coming quarters will be
Quarterly EBITDA/unit Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
more modest. We expect annual EBITDA growth of 4% over 2010 and 2011 to 2008A $0.49 $0.52 $0.51 $0.56
primarily come from the deployment of ATMs in Mexico and the continued 2009A $0.57 $0.58 $0.60 $0.57
2010E $0.58 $0.60 $0.62 $0.60
roll-out of the prepaid MasterCard product. The fund indicated that it is
Dividend $1.38 Yield 8.9%
currently evaluating its options for conversion to a “high dividend paying Book Value $4.74 Price/Book 3.3x
Units O/S (mm) 12.5 Mkt. Cap ($mm) $193
corporation” and plans to approach unitholders in Q3/10. It sports a Float O/S (mm) 5.6 Float Cap ($mm) $86
conservative payout ratio, which we believe will most likely enable it to Wkly Vol (000s) 52 Wkly $ Vol (mm) $0.7
Net Debt ($mm) $40.3 Next Rep. Date May (E)
maintain most, if not all, of its current cash distribution when it converts into an
Notes: All values in C$
income tax paying corporation toward the end of 2010. The current monthly Major Unitholders: Management (about 45%)
First Call Mean Estimates: Not Available
cash distribution of $0.115 yields an attractive 8.9%.

Changes Annual EBITDA/unit Annual DCPU Quarterly EBITDA/unit Rating


2010E $2.55 to $2.40 2010E $2.20 to $2.10 Q1/10E $0.62 to $0.58 OP to Mkt
2011E $2.65 to $2.50 Q2/10E $0.65 to $0.60
Q3/10E $0.66 to $0.62
Q4/10E $0.63 to $0.60

This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 5 to 7.
Back to Index
March 30, 2010

Cineplex Galaxy Income Entertainment

Fund Jeffrey B. Logsdon


BMO Capital Markets Corp.
(CGX.UN-TSX) 213-228-2234
jeffrey.logsdon@bmo.com
Stock Rating: Outperform Jeffrey Hoskins, CFA Kara Stevenson
Industry Rating: Outperform 213-228-2405 213-228-2407
jeff.hoskins@bmo.com kara.stevenson@bmo.com

Securities Info
Lifting 2010 Attendance Forecast on Film Slate; Price (29-Mar) $20.25 Target Price $26 
Raising Estimates and Target 52-Wk High/Low
Mkt Cap (mm)
$20/$14
$1,152
Dividend
Yield
$1.26
6.2%
Shs O/S (mm, BASIC) 56.9 Float O/S (mm) 55.6
Options O/S (mm) 4.6 ADVol (30-day, 000s) 192
Event
Price Performance
With better visibility to a quality film slate in 2010, we are raising our
CINEPLEX GALAXY INCOME FD (CGX.UN)
attendance forecast to 73.1 million from 70.5 million. Our new forecast Price: High,Low,Close(US$)
22
Relative to S&P 500
160

implies 4.4% y/y attendance growth on 1.6% more screens (roughly 20 net 20
140
opened screens). 3-D and live event ticket premiums are expected to provide 18

120
incremental revenue in 2010, but our higher attendance forecast is not 16

14
entirely due to the 3-D draw. As such, our raised revenue, EBITDA, and EPS 100

12
estimates are due primarily to incremental customer traffic based on the 80
10
entire 2010 film slate and only to a lesser degree on higher ticket prices. 8 60
Volume (mln)
15 15

Impact 10

5
10

Positive. As we move further into 2010, we are becoming increasingly 0


2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0

convinced that this year’s slate can draw more customers than last year’s. Last Data Point: March 25, 2010

Valuation/Financial Data
Recent 2.5% pricing increases, combined with better first-quarter film results
(FY-Dec.) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E
(up over 20% in Canada) set a better tone for 2010 film revenues. On-screen DCPU $1.86 $2.14 $2.55 $2.75
advertising continues to pick up, a positive from a high margin business. P/DCPU 7.9x 7.4x
First Call Cons.
FCF $1.85 $2.39 $2.24 $2.38
Forecasts P/FCF
EBITDA ($mm) $145 $161
9.0x
$182
8.5x
$199
We are raising our 2010 DCPU estimate to $2.55 from $2.42. We are also EV/EBITDA 7.9x 7.3x
Rev. ($mm) $850 $964 $1,039 $1,075
raising our 2011 estimate to $2.75 from $2.55, both on attendance and pricing. EV/Rev 1.4x 1.3x
Quarterly DCPU 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
2009A $0.38 $0.63 $0.67 $0.46
Valuation 2010E $0.50 $0.70 $0.78 $0.57

We are raising our 9-15 month price target for CGX.UN to $26 from $24. Our Balance Sheet Data (31-Dec)
Net Debt ($mm) $293 TotalDebt/EBITDA 2.1x
target is based on a DCF analysis that uses a 7.0x terminal EBITDA multiple. Total Debt ($mm) $380 EBITDA/IntExp na
Net Debt/Cap. 29.5% Price/Book 1.8x
Notes: All values in C$.
Source: BMO Capital Markets estimates, Bloomberg, FactSet, Global
Recommendation Insight, Reuters, and Thomson Financial.
We continue to rate CGX.UN OUTPERFORM.

Changes Annual DCPU Annual FCF Quarterly DCPU Target


2010E $2.42 to $2.55 2010E $2.05 to $2.24 Q1/10E $0.39 to $0.50 $24.00 to $26.00
2011E $2.55 to $2.75 2011E $2.18 to $2.38 Q3/10E $0.77 to $0.78

Please refer to pages 5 to 7 for Important Disclosures, including the Analyst's Certification.
(Back to Index)
March 29, 2010

Reitmans (Canada) Apparel Retail


(RET.A-TSX; RET-TSX)
John D. Morris
Stock Rating: Outperform BMO Capital Markets Corp.
212-885-4016
Industry Rating: Market Perform john.morris@bmo.com
Edward Plank Jennifer Redding
212-885-4053 212-885-4072
edward.plank @bmo.com jennifer.redding@bmo.com

4Q in Line; Reiterate OUTPERFORM Rating Securities Info


Price (26-Mar) $16.65 Target Price $19
52-Wk High/Low $18/$10 Dividend $0.72
Mkt Cap (mm) $902 Yield 4.3%
Event Shs O/S (mm, BASIC) 54.2 Float O/S (mm) 48.8
Options O/S (mm) na ADVol (30-day, 000s) 73
Reitmans reported 4Q EPS of $0.21, in line with our estimate. Same-store
Price Performance
sales increased 1.5%, which was better than our flat forecast. Encouragingly,
sales were up 2%, which was a little better than expected and we believe the Price: High,Low,Close(US$)
REITMANS CDA LTD (RET.A)
Relative to S&P 500
150
company’s promotional cadence was in line with plan, driven by strong post-
Christmas business. Importantly, gross margin improved 420 bp to 65.0%, as 25
140

the average rate for a USD strengthened to $1.05 CAD versus $1.23 last 130
20
year, contributing $7 million to gross margin. This led to a 260 bp gain in 120
EBITDA margin to 13.9%, which was in line with our forecast. 15
110

10
100
Impact
5 90
The company maintained a somewhat conservative view toward FY2010. 10
Volume (mln)
10

However, based on our conversations with management and our channel 5 5


checks, we believe spring business is checking well so far. We feel confident
the company’s strong fundamentals will help weather any remaining short- 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0

Last Data Point: March 26, 2010


term headwinds as the Canadian economy picks up. We remain positive on
the name given 1) Reitmans’ dominant position in the Canadian specialty Valuation/Financial Data
apparel market, 2) the company’s brand strength and diversified portfolio of (FY-Jan.) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E
retail concepts, and 3) a 4% dividend yield that is among the highest in our EPS Pro Forma $1.21 $0.98 $1.25 $1.40
P/E 13.3x 11.9x
group. We think EBITDA should continue to benefit from improving First Call Cons. $0.99 $1.22
currency exchange rates over the next few quarters, which could provide EPS GAAP $1.21 $0.98 $1.25 $1.40
some leverage to the bottom line in FY2010. FCF $1.00 $1.37 $1.74 $1.86
P/FCF 9.6x 9.0x
EBITDA ($mm) $181 $158 $186 $202
EV/EBITDA 3.7x 3.4x
Forecasts Rev. ($mm) $1,051 $1,057 $1,093 $1,132
EV/Rev 0.6x 0.6x
We are making no changes to our FY2010 and FY2011 EPS estimates.
Quarterly EPS 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
2009A $0.11 $0.38 $0.28 $0.21
2010E $0.22 $0.43 $0.33 $0.27
Valuation Balance Sheet Data (10/30/09)
We view RET shares as a compelling investment based on an attractive Net Debt ($mm) -$222 TotalDebt/EBITDA 0.1x
Total Debt ($mm) $13 EBITDA/IntExp na
risk/reward scenario. Our 12-month price target of $19 is based on 14x our Net Debt/Cap. nm Price/Book 2.2x
2011 EPS estimate. Notes: All values in C$.
Source: BMO Capital Markets estimates, Bloomberg, FactSet, Global
Insight, Reuters, and Thomson Financial.
Recommendation
We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on the shares.

Changes Annual FCF Quarterly EPS


2010E $1.78 to $1.74 Q3/10E $0.32 to $0.33
2011E na to $1.86 Q4/10E $0.28 to $0.27

Please refer to pages 5 to 7 for Important Disclosures, including the Analyst's Certification.
Back to Index

Drill Bits
March 29, 2010

Gordon Tait, CFA


(403) 515-1501
Weekly Royalty Trust Report Assoc: Chris Bolton, CFA/Peter Kranz, P. Eng
(403) 515-1503/1517
Email: firstname.lastname@bmo.com
Week Ending March 26, 2010

Index Performance:
Weekly YTD
Week Ending: 26-Mar Change Change
S&P/TSX ET Index: 325.43 -0.7% 5.7%
S&P/TSX E&P Index 3,765 -1.8% -2.6%
S&P/TSX Composite 31,756 0.1% 2.4%
Commodity Performance:
WTI Oil (US$/bbl): $80.00 -0.8% 0.8%
AECO Gas (C$/Mcf): $3.77 -0.8% -35.0%
US$/C$ Exchange Rate $0.9741 -0.9% 2.4%

BMO Forecast Assumptions: '10E '11E


WTI Oil (US$/bbl): $75.00 $80.00
AECO Gas (C$/Mcf): $4.26 $5.05
US$/C$ Exchange Rate: $0.95 $0.95
Source: BMO Capital Markets, Bloomberg

S&P/TSX Energy Trust Index vs. S&P/TSX E&P


Index vs. S&P/TSX Composite Index
150
140 E&P Index
ET Index
130
120
Weekly Highlights 110

 For the week, the S&P/TSX Canadian Energy Trust Index decreased
100
90
0.7%, while the S&P/TSX E&P Index declined by 1.8%. Year to 80 ET Index
TSX Co mp.

date, the Energy Trust Index is up 5.7%, compared to a 2.6% 70 TSX Comp.
E&P Index
decrease for the E&P Index and a 2.4% increase for the S&P/TSX 60
50
Composite. Jan-07 M ay-07 Oct-07 Feb-08 Jul-08 No v-08 A pr-09 A ug-09 Jan-10

 WTI crude oil ended the week at US$80.00/bbl (C$82.13), a N o t e : last data po int M arch 26, 2010 So urce: B M O Capital M arkets, B lo o mberg

decrease of 0.8% over last week’s close. WTI crude oil has averaged
WTI Oil (US$/bbl) and AECO Gas (C$/Mcf)
US$70.18/bbl over the past 12 months and US$78.57/bbl year to $ 150 $ 15.00
date. AECO natural gas closed the week at C$3.77/Mcf, a decline of $ 135 $ 13.50
0.8% from last week. AECO has averaged C$3.99/Mcf over the past WTI
AECO Gas (C$/Mcf)

$ 120 $ 12.00
WTI Oil (US$/bbl)

12 months and $4.99/Mcf year to date. $ 105 $ 10.50

 The top three performing royalty trusts last week were VET (2.1%),
$ 90 $ 9.00

$ 75 $ 7.50
PGF (1.8%), ZAR (1.4%), while the weakest performance came AECO
$ 60 $ 6.00
from AAV (-8.2%), DAY (-6.5%), NAL (-4.0%). $ 45 $ 4.50

 We have Outperform ratings on AET, BTE, COS, CPG, NAE, $ 30 $ 3.00

PGF and VET. We are restricted on BNP and PMT. $ 15 $ 1.50


Jan-07 Jun-07 No v-07 A pr-08 Sep-08 M ar-09 A ug-09 Jan-10
N o t e : last data po int M arch 26, 2010 So urce: B M O Capital M arkets, B lo o mberg

This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 13 to 14.
Back to Index

March 29, 2010


North American Pipelines Carl Kirst, CFA
BMO Capital Markets Corp.
713-546-9756
Industry Rating: Market Perform carl.kirst@bmo.com

Danilo Juvane, CFA


713-546-9741
danilo.juvane@bmo.com

Natural Gas IQ Gas Industry Snapshot*


NYMEX Natural Gas 12-Mo. Strip ($/mmbtu): $4.51
Weekly Change -6.8%
The Natural Gas IQ is our weekly report aimed at developments in the natural gas
YTD Change -23.2%
infrastructure space, and importantly, the implications for our pipeline equities.
NYMEX Crude Oil 12-Mo. Strip ($/bbl): $81.72
Weekly Change -0.7%
Gas bearishness heats up; capitulation is getting closer, but not there yet we
YTD Change -0.5%
think. With the start to the injection season arriving two weeks early (weather
Natural Gas Liquids (40% ethane, $/gal): $1.03
since mid-March has been running 15% warmer than normal), storage remains 8% Current $ Correlation to Spot Crude Oil 54.0%
Weekly Change -1.9%
above five-year averages while the natural gas rig count continues to climb higher
YTD Change -13.4%
(January 914-production data out later today). Over the past two weeks we’ve seen
Processing Frac-Spread (Gulf Coast, $/gal): $0.70
several houses across the Street reduce natural gas forecasts, and as our E&P team Weekly Change -1.6%
YTD Change 0.2%
recently noted, the long oil/short gas position is a bit of a crowded trade, to say the
LNG U.S. Imports (weekly avg, Bcf/d): 1.46
least. That said, even with the 12-month strip of $4.55 this morning now hovering
Weekly Change 255.1%
only $0.10 higher than the low of 2009, it doesn’t mean prices won’t first go lower, Y-o-Y Change -13.1%

at least until the market sees more conviction in reduced drilling activity. Until that Natural Gas in Storage (Bcf): +11 to 1,626
happens (1Q conference calls?) and with further pressure likely on the $5.38 2010 Vs. this week last year -1 to 1,655
Vs. this week 5-yr avg -37 to 1,505
consensus (vs. BMO estimate of $4.75), we think the natural gas trade will remain
Natural Gas Directed Rig Count: +2 to 941
muted. To be sure, we have no intent of catching a falling commodity knife, Weekly Change 0.2%
particularly in the pipeline space, but we do note that the relative position of many Y-o-Y Change 16.2%

in our sector—providing downside protection via utility assets and hedging, with Stock Performance: Weekly
long-term upside via E&P and/or midstream—has actually led to notable US Gas Diversifieds -1.3%
US Gas Utilities -1.0%
outperformance YTD versus the E&P and utility indices, a trend that we expect Canadian Pipelines 0.2%
will continue. Top performers in our sector include OUTPERFORM-rated El Paso Canadian Trusts -0.3%
UTY (Philadelphia Utility Index) -1.6%
(EP, $17 price target), Williams (WMB, $28 price target) and Southern Union XOP (S&P E&P SPDR) -2.9%
(SUG, $32, price target) along with MARKET PERFORM-rated Spectra (SE, $23 OSX (Oil Service Index) -2.2%
S&P 500 (SPX) 0.6%
price target), all of which have outperformed the EPX and UTY indices by 13%- 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.3%
15% YTD. Stock Performance: YTD
US Gas Diversifieds 2.1%
Short interest update: NiSource takes the mantle. As shown by the latest US Gas Utilities 2.3%
biweekly update (Mar 25), NI’s short position increased 230 basis points to 4.6% Canadian Pipelines 1.3%
Canadian Trusts 8.5%
versus 2.2% average for the group (although given its liquidity, days to cover are UTY (Philadelphia Utility Index) -5.0%
only 2.9 days vs. the 2.0 day average). We suspect rising short interest is related XOP (S&P E&P SPDR) -1.3%
OSX (Oil Service Index) 2.2%
more to pair trading given the stock’s 7.5% outperformance of the utility index S&P 500 (SPX) 4.6%
YTD, with further upside likely limited until the 2Q resolution of the NIPSCO rate 10-Year US Treasury Yield 0.3%

case (for which we assume a neutral outcome in our $17 price target). * A ll data priced as o f clo se M arch 26, 2010 in US$
So urce: B lo o mberg, EIA , Waterbo rne, B aker Hughes, P latts, Co mpany data.

Refer to pages 22 to 23 for Important Disclosures, including Analyst's Certification.

Page 1 March 29, 2010


Back to Index

March 29, 2010


Financials - Research Comment
Toronto, Ontario

Real Estate/REITs Karine MacIndoe


(416) 359-4269
Karine.Macindoe@bmo.com
Assoc: Garreth MacRae / Pauline Alimchandani, CA
Industry Rating: Market Perform

REITers Digest
Canadian Real Estate/REIT Weekly
(Ending March 26, 2010)

Summary Relative Price Performance - REITs vs. Broader Indices


(End of 2006-Current)

 Weekly/quarterly performance: the S&P/TSX REIT Price


Index up 1.6% last week (+3% last quarter, +67% last year), 140

which slightly outperformed the MSCI U.S. REIT Index’s Price Only Performance (Indexed to 100)
S&P/TSX Composite

1.3% (7% last quarter; 93.5% last year) and outperformed the 115

S&P/TSX Composite’s 0.1% (+2% last quarter; 33% last year).


S&P/TSX Financials
The top three performing REITs/Corps last week were MRC 90
(11%), LRT.UN (7%) and GDC (7%), while the weakest
performers were LHR.UN (-11%), HLR.UN (-7%), and IIP.UN
65
(-3%). The top three performers over the last quarter were
S&P/TSX Capped REIT
GDC (99.5%), MRC (45%) and HNT.UN (39.5%), while the
weakest were LRT.UN (-18%), ACC (-7%) and MEQ (-5%). 40
MSCI US REIT

US Financials

 Relative Valuation: Canadian REITs are trading at 14.8x our 15

2010E AFFO, representing a 5 pt discount to U.S. REITs. If


7

9
7

0
6

9
-0

-0

-0

-0

-0

-0
-0

-0

-0

-0

-0

-0

-0

-0

-0

-0

-0

-0

-0

-1
pr

pr

pr
un

ug

ct

un

ug

ct

un

ug

ct
ec

ec

ec

ec
eb

eb

eb

eb
-O

-O

-O
-A

-A

-A
-D

-D

-D

-D
-A

-A

-A
-J

-J

-J
-F

-F

-F

-F
we switch to 2011, Canadian REITs are trading a 14.5x 2011E
29

29

29

29

29

29
29

29

29
28

29

28

28
29

29

29
29

29

29

29
Source: Bloomberg, BMO Capital Markets
AFFO, maintaining an attractive 4.4 pt discount to U.S. REITs Last Datapoint: March 26, 2010

(10-year historical average discount is 2.5 pts).


Index Comparison -Relative Price Changes
 Insider & NCIB Activity: Insider buying activity for the week 26-Mar-10
Last Last Last % from All-
was reported in H&R (10,000 units by T. Hofstedter) and on Index Value Last Wk Mth Qtr Year Time High
the convert side First Capital ($300,000 Series C 6.25% S&P/TSX Capped REIT Index 120.00 1.6% 1.5% 3.3% 66.9% -32.4%
converts by Gazit). YTD the most active buying was seen in S&P/TSX Financials 189.38 1.2% 7.5% 8.2% 57.1% -16.1%
H&R (35,000 units by T. Hofstedter), CAP (25,500 units), S&P/TSX Composite 11,957.37 0.1% 2.8% 1.7% 32.9% -20.7%

InnVest (15,000 units by the Mangalji Bros), and on the MSCI US REIT Index 679.87 1.3% 11.0% 6.7% 93.5% -44.9%
convert side, First Capital ($485,000, Series C 6.25% converts, S&P US Financials 215.55 2.1% 9% 10.4% 69.0% -57.7%
by Gazit). There was no insider selling activity reported for the S&P 500 1,166.59 0.6% 5.6% 3.4% 40.1% -25.5%
week. YTD, the most active insider selling was reported in Source: Bloomberg, BMO Capital Markets

Dundee (28,000 units by a director), Calloway (10,000 units by


a director), and BPO (8,500 shares by a senior officer). No Canadian vs. US REIT Comparison -Relative Valuation
NCIB activity was reported for the week. YTD, the most 2011E 2010E 10 Yr
High/Low
active NCIB buying activity was reported by Royal Host (1.3 Date: 26-Mar-10 AFFO
Multiple
2010E AFFO
Multiple
AFFO
Yield
Bond
Yield
Spread 10 Yr Ave
Spread
1
Spread
million units at $2.45/unit under SIB), and InnVest (7,000 units Canadian REITs 14.5x 14.8x 6.76% 3.56% 3.20% 3.66% 0.66/7.95%

at $5.77/unit). US REITs 18.9x 19.8x 5.04% 3.85% 1.19% 2.37% -0.77/8.41%

 We currently have Outperform ratings on BPO, CAR.UN, 2011E 2010E 10 Yr Ave


Spread
High/Low Spread
2

CSH.UN, HR.UN, INN.UN and NPR.UN. We are restricted Multiple Spread (US vs Canada) : 4.4x 5.0x 2.5x 6.3x/-1x

on CUF.UN. Source: Bloomberg, SNL Financial, BMO Capital Markets


1. Cdn Low recorded in May 2007, High in Jan, 2009; US Low in Jan 2007, High In Feb 2009
2. High recorded in Jan '07; Low in 1999

This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 21 to 22.
Back to Index

March 29, 2009


Transportation - Rails Tracking Shipments

Industry Rating: Outperform Randy Cousins, CFA


(416) 359-6194
Randy.Cousins@bmo.com
Assoc: Stephen Yang

Tracking Shipments
Week 11 Rail Traffic – Intermodal Rebound
 Observations – Our colleague Jason Granger covers the trucking and logistics companies in Canada and the United States.
Jason is seeing increasing signs of a turn in demand for trucking and an improvement in spot market truckload rates. He notes
that “a significant amount of capacity has been taken offline in the Truckload sector. As a result of carriers parking vehicles in
2009, an estimated 8–10% of capacity has been removed from the road. Moreover, trucking bankruptcies could provide the
next catalyst for supply contraction in 2010.” With firmer demand alongside supply reduction, industry conditions are
tightening. Truck price competition has been a significant issue in the intermodal segment for the railroads. Any improvement
in truck rates should have follow-on or slipstream effect on rail intermodal rates. Chart 1 is the Cass Freight index. The Cass
index is a measure of monthly freight volumes based on freight transactions processed by Cass (not the month the shipment
takes place). The index uses January 1990 as its base month of comparison. The numbers are not seasonally adjusted. The
bottom in truck freight activity occurred in early 2009. Although the absolute level of activity coming off the bottom is still
quite weak, there has been a fairly steady improvement in demand. More recently, the year-over-year comparisons have been
positive.

Cass Freight Index


Cass Shipments Index Y/Y % Change

1.4 25%

20%
1.3 15%
10%
1.2
5%
0%
1.1
-5%
-10%
1.0
-15%

0.9 -20%
-25%

0.8 -30%
Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10
Source: Cass Information Systems, BMO CM research

This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 18 to 19.
Back to Index
March 30, 2010
Relative Strength Filter Research Comment
Quantitative/Technical Research

Mark Steele
(416) 359-4641
mark.steele@bmo.com
Assoc: Tiberiu Stoichita
Outperforming, Not Overbought
CLICK HERE for a printer friendly version of this report including research disclosures.

• The overall market landscape is positive, but quiet this morning – • When markets are trending, as they are, you buy
we will run some basic screens strong stocks within strong groups. Adding on a
• The bottom three panels show the top 10 stocks in each region technical filter (daily and weekly RSI below 70)
which are 1) outperforming the market and the sector; 2) in good helps to avoid the pitfalls of buying into overbought
industries (top 5 deciles from our Group Selection Report); and 3) stocks.
not overbought on both a daily and weekly RSI.

Figure 1: S&P 500 Members – Outperforming Market & Sector, Strong Groups, Not Overbought on RSI – See Full List

Figure 2: S&P/TSX Composite Members – Outperforming Market & Sector, Strong Groups, Not Overbought on RSI – See List

Figure 3: Global 1200 Members – Outperforming Market & Sector, Strong Groups, Not Overbought on RSI – See Full List

Source: BMO Capital Markets, Bloomberg, Thomson, Markit

This report was prepared in part by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s)
under FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 2 to 3.
Back to Index

March 29, 2010


Market Elements Research Comment
Quantitative/Technical Research

Mark Steele
(416) 359-4641
mark.steele@bmo.com
Assoc: Tiberiu Stoichita

 Equities advanced, yet index levels remained within the range of last  The Australian dollar led a broad-based advance against the U.S.
week; the energy sector led on the back of a $2.50 gain in crude oil. dollar – this commodity currency also benefits from a large yield
 The bond market was relatively quiet; U.S. 10-year treasuries traded differential and hawkish RBA governor – BMOChart.
another inside day.  Metals and Energy (ex natural gas of course) led a broad based
commodity rally.

Levels*
Currencies (USD per) Commodities Government 10- Yr Benchmark Equity Indices & Sentiment
Symbol H/L Level %Chg Symbol H/L Level %Chg Symbol H/L Level Chg Symbol H/L Level %Chg
DXY  81.27 -0.5% DJ UBS  132.07 1.8% U.S.  3.87 0.02 S&P 1200  1,347 0.6%
EUR  1.3479 0.5% WTI Oil  82.42 3.0% Canada  3.58 0.02 S&P 500  1,173 0.6%
CHF  0.9412 0.3% NMX Gas 3.84 -0.8% Germany  3.13 -0.02 S&P/TSX  12,030 0.6%
GBP  1.4982 0.6% Gold  1,110.7 0.3% France  3.46 -0.02 Euro STOXX  2,947 0.2%
JPYx10  0.1082 0.1% Silver  17.38 2.8% Switzerland  1.91 -0.00 FTSE 100  5,711 0.1%
CAD  0.9793 0.5% Platinum  1,627.0 1.9% Italy  3.92 -0.00 Hang Seng  21,237 0.9%
AUD  0.9173 1.5% Palladium  473.5 3.4% Spain  3.83 -0.01 Topix  966 -0.1%
NZD  0.7102 0.9% CMX Cu H 352.95 4.0% Greece 6.29 0.09 S&P/ASX  4,897 0.0%
BRL  0.5565 1.3% LME Al 3m  1.04 2.8% U.K.  3.98 -0.06 Shang/Shen 3,359 2.6%
MXNx10 H 0.8039 0.5% LME Ni 3m H 10.88 1.7% Australia  5.79 0.05 Sensex30 H 17,711 0.4%
ZAR  0.1350 0.3% LME Zn 3m 1.06 4.6% Hong Kong 2.71 0.00 CDX IG 5Yr 85.13 -2.2%
KRWx10  0.8845 0.9% Lumber  281.00 -3.1% India  7.84 -0.03 TRIN 1.03 49%
SGD  0.7149 0.4% Corn  357.00 0.2% Japan  1.41 0.02 VIX  17.59 -1.0%

Moves
Currencies (spot) Commodities Government 10- Yr Benchmarks Equity Indices
AUD LME Zn 3m U.K. Shang/Shen
BRL CMX Cu India
Hang Seng
KRW Palladium France

WTI Oil Germany S&P 1200


NZD
Silver Spain S&P/TSX
GBP
LME Al 3m Italy
CAD S&P 500
Platinum Sw itzerland
EUR Sensex30
DJ UBS Hong Kong
MXN
LME Ni 3m Canada Euro STOXX
SGD
Gold U.S. FTSE 100
ZAR Corn Japan
S&P/ASX
CHF NMX Gas Australia
JPY Lumber Greece Topix

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 0.10 0.05 0.00 -0.05 -0.10 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0%

Sectors
S&P Global 1200 S&P Europe 350 S&P 500 S&P/TSX Composite
Energy Utilities Energy Energy

Materials Telecom Utilities Hlth Care


Telecom Materials Hlth Care Materials

Utilities Info Tech Materials Utilities

Industrials Cons Stap Industrials Industrials


Financials Financials Telecom Telecom

Hlth Care Cons Disc Cons Stap Info Tech

Cons Stap Energy Financials Cons Stap


Cons Disc Hlth Care Info Tech Cons Disc

Info Tech Industrials Cons Disc Financials

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%

Source for all data and graphics in this publication: BMO Capital Markets, Bloomberg, Thomson
* H/L = at a new closing 52- wk High/Low; / = within 10% of the 52- week High/Low; Colour codes are inverted for bond and sentiment indications
This report was prepared in part by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s)
under FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 8 to 9.
Market Elements

Daily Charts
3- Month View with 50- and 26- Day Moving Averages
 Euro/Greece – Greece priced a 5bn euro 7-year bond – Bloomberg, FT
 Aussie Dollar pivots higher on Hawkish RBA signal (next policy meeting April 6) – FT; the AUD is a rate differential driven currency – BMOChart
 Breakout in copper follows the move in nickel on Friday

Currencies Commodities Bonds Equities

Page 2  March 29, 2010 (Back to Index)


Market Elements

Intra Day Charts


2-Day Tick View
 Move in crude oil (WTI and Brent) was also in heating oil, and gasoline – around 9:30am (not FX, or press release related)

Currencies Commodities Bonds Equities

Page 3  March 29, 2010 (Back to Index)


Market Elements

Daily Sector Charts


3-Month View with 50- and 26-Day Moving Averages
 New Highs: U.S. – Industrials, Financials; Canada – Industrials; Europe – Materials

S&P 500

S&P/TSX Composite

S&P Europe 350

Page 4  March 29, 2010 (Back to Index)


Market Elements

Market Movers – Largest Daily Percentage Moves


 Global – Steel Moving Higher: Gerdau SA (GGB), Usinas Siderurgicas de Minas Gerais SA (SID); and commodities see Focal Points
 U.S. – Southwestern Energy (SWN) pivots higher on New Brunswick land purchase – Rigzone, analyst (GS) upgrade - AP
 U.S. – Broker Upgrades/Positive Reports: Expedia (EXPE), CB Richard Ellis (CBG)

S&P Global 1200 ex U.S. & Canada S&P 500 S&P/TSX Composite
Name
SECURITY_NAME Symbol
TICKER % Chg
Chg Name
SECURITY_NAME Symbol % Chg
TICKER Chg Name
SECURITY_NAME Symbol Chg
TICKER % Chg
Energy Petroleo Brasileiro SA PBR/A US 2.2% Southwestern Energy Co SWN 8.0% Precision Drilling Trust PD-U 4.9%
TonenGeneral Sekiyu KK 5012 JP 1.8% Massey Energy Co MEE 7.0% Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd AAV 3.8%
PetroChina Co Ltd 857 HK 1.6% Denbury Resources Inc DNR 4.2% Trinidad Drilling Ltd TDG 3.6%
Technip SA TEC FP -0.9% Tesoro Corp/Texas TSO 0.4% Bonavista Energy Trust BNP-U -1.3%
Santos Ltd STO AU -0.9% Consol Energy Inc CNX 0.4% ARC Energy Trust AET-U -1.5%
Cairn Energy PLC
SECURITY_NAME CNE LN
TICKER -1.6%
Chg ConocoPhillips
SECURITY_NAME COP
TICKER Chg0.3% Baytex ET
SECURI ner gy Trust
Y_NAME BTE-U -2.3%
TICKER Chg
Materials Gerdau SA GGB US 6.0% Titanium Metals Corp TIE 6.0% Equinox Minerals Ltd EQN 6.8%
Cia Siderurgica Nacional SA SID US 4.8% International Flavors & Fragra IFF 5.1% SEMAFO Inc SMF 6.7%
Mitsubishi Materials Corp 5711 JP 3.9% Allegheny Technologies Inc ATI 4.7% Teck Resources Ltd TCK/B 4.1%
Orica Ltd ORI AU -1.9% Airgas Inc ARG -0.4% Jaguar Mining Inc JAG -1.5%
Nippon Paper Group Inc 3893 JP -2.3% PPG Industries Inc PPG -0.5% HudBay Minerals Inc HBM -1.5%
OJI Paper Co Ltd
SECURITY_NAME 3861 JP
TICKER -2.9%
Chg Dow Chemical Co/The
SECURITY_NAME DOW -1.8%
TICKER Chg Gabriel Resources Ltd
SECURITY_NAME GBU -3.5%
TICKER Chg
Industrials Obayashi Corp 1802 JP 2.6% Precision Castparts Corp PCP 2.6% Russel Metals Inc RUS 2.5%
SMC Corp/Japan 6273 JP 2.2% Iron Mountain Inc IRM 2.6% Finning International Inc FTT 2.4%
Hochtief AG HOT GR 2.0% First Solar Inc FSLR 2.5% Bombardier Inc BBD/B 2.0%
Alfa Laval AB ALFA SS -1.9% Emerson Electric Co EMR 0.1% Aecon Group Inc ARE -0.5%
Renewable Energy Corp ASA REC NO -3.3% Goodrich Corp GR 0.1% IESI-BFC Ltd BIN -1.0%
Konink lijke Philips Electronic
SECURITY_NAME PHIA NA
TICKER -3.5%
Chg Illinois Tool W orks Inc
SECURITY_NAME ITW -0.0%
TICKER Chg Ritchie Bros Auctioneers Inc
SECURITY_NAME RBA -1.3%
TICKER Chg
Cons Disc Li & Fung Ltd 494 HK 3.6% Expedia Inc EXPE 6.1% Dorel Industries Inc DII/B 2.2%
ITV PLC ITV LN 3.2% International Game Technology IGT 3.8% Quebecor Inc QBR/B 1.9%
Sanyo Electric Co Ltd 6764 JP 2.7% Apollo Group Inc APOL 3.1% Linamar Corp LNR 1.9%
Hyundai Mobis 012330 KS -2.3% Abercrombie & Fitch Co ANF -1.3% Sears Canada Inc SCC -0.3%
OPAP SA OPAP GA -2.5% Ford Motor Co F -2.1% Thomson Reuters Corp TRI -0.8%
Whitbread PLC
SECURITY_NAME WTB LN
TICKER -2.6%
Chg RadioShack
SECURITY_NAME Corp RSH -2.8%
TICKER Chg RONA Inc
SECURITY_NAME RON -1.6%
TICKER Chg
Cons Stap Seven & I Holdings Co Ltd 3382 JP 2.9% Brown-Forman Corp BF/B 2.6% Cott Corp BCB 2.3%
Wilmar International Ltd WIL SP 1.5% Archer-Daniels-Midland Co ADM 2.1% Saputo Inc SAP 1.1%
Centros Comerciales Sudamerica CENCOSUD CI 1.2% Avon Products Inc AVP 2.1% Alimentation Couche Tard Inc ATD/B 0.9%
Shiseido Co Ltd 4911 JP -1.6% Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc DPS -0.4% Loblaw Cos Ltd L -0.6%
Yakult Honsha Co Ltd 2267 JP -2.0% Lorillard Inc LO -1.5% North West Co Fund NWF-U -1.4%
Ajinomoto Co Inc
SECURITY_NAME 2802 JP
TICKER -2.8%
Chg Molso n Coors Brewing Co
SECURITY_NAME TAP -2.1%
TICKER Chg Empire Co Ltd
SECURITY_NAME EMP/A -1.5%
TICKER Chg
Health Care Roche Holding AG RO SW 1.5% Cephalon Inc CEPH 2.9% Biovail Corp BVF 2.8%
Nobel Biocare Holding AG NOBN VX 1.2% Boston Scientific Corp BSX 2.6% SXC Health Solutions Corp SXC 2.1%
Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co FME GR 0.9% McKesson Corp MCK 2.5% CML Healthcare Income Fund CLC-U -1.7%
Astellas Pharma Inc 4503 JP -2.8% Genzyme Corp GENZ -0.0% MDS Inc MDS -2.2%
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd 4502 JP -2.8% St Jude Medical Inc STJ -0.2%
Eisai Co Ltd
SECURITY_NAME 4523 JP
TICKER -3.4%
Chg Medc o Health Solutions Inc
SECURITY_NAME MHS -0.5%
TICKER Chg SECURITY_NAME TICKER Chg
Financials ORIX Corp 8591 JP 5.1% CB Richard Ellis Group Inc CBG 6.9% GMP Capital Inc GMP 2.7%
Shinsei Bank Ltd 8303 JP 3.8% E*Trade Financial Corp ETFC 2.6% Intact Financial Corp IFC 2.1%
Itau Unibanco Holding SA ITUB US 3.4% Morgan Stanley MS 2.0% FirstService Corp FSV 1.9%
Commerzbank AG CBK GR -1.8% KeyCorp KEY -1.8% Manulife Financial Corp MFC -1.0%
Alpha Bank AE ALPHA GA -2.8% Zions Bancorporation ZION -2.2% Primaris Retail Real Estate In PMZ-U -1.5%
Mizuho Financial Group Inc
SECURITY_NAME 8411 JP
TICKER -3.1%
Chg Citigroup Inc
SECURITY_NAME C -3.0%
TICKER Chg Dundee Real Estate Investment
SECURITY_NAME D-U -1.9%
TICKER Chg
Technology Hitachi Ltd 6501 JP 4.5% Amphenol Corp APH 2.3% Celestica Inc CLS 2.2%
Infineon Technologies AG IFX GR 3.5% Linear Technology Corp LLTC 1.6% Open Text Corp OTC 0.3%
Alcatel-Lucent/France ALU FP 2.4% Corning Inc GLW 1.6% Research In Motion Ltd RIM 0.2%
United Microelectronics Corp 2303 TT -1.5% SAIC Inc SAI -1.8% MacDonald Dettwiler & Associat MDA -0.4%
Yahoo! Japan Corp 4689 JP -1.6% Novell Inc NOVL -1.9% CGI Group Inc GIB/A -0.8%
Nintendo Co Ltd
SECURITY_NAME 7974 JP
TICKER -2.5%
Chg EMC Corp/Massachusetts
SECURITY_NAME EMC -2.7%
TICKER Chg SECURITY_NAME TICKER Chg
Telecom Softbank Corp 9984 JP 3.7% American Tower Corp AMT 2.7% TELUS Corp T 0.9%
Vodafone Group PLC VOD LN 3.0% AT&T Inc T 1.0% Manitoba Telecom Services Inc MBT 0.7%
Singapore Telecommunications L ST SP 2.2% MetroPCS Communications Inc PCS 0.7% BCE Inc BCE 0.5%
Cable & Wireless Communication CWC LN -1.3% Qwest Communications Internati Q 0.2% Rogers Communications Inc RCI/B 0.4%
SK Telecom Co Ltd 017670 KS -1.4% Sprint Nextel Corp S -0.3% Bell Aliant Regional Communica BA-U -0.7%
NTT DoCoMo Inc
SECURITY_NAME 9437 JP
TICKER -2.2%
Chg Windstream
SECURITY_NAMECorp WIN -2.4%
TICKER Chg SECURITY_NAME TICKER Chg
Utilities Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras EBR US 4.0% AES Corp/The AES 3.5% Canadian Utilities Ltd CU 1.0%
EDF SA EDF FP 3.7% Sempra Energy SRE 2.6% Just Energy Income Fund JE-U 0.9%
Drax Group PLC DRX LN 2.7% EQT Corp EQT 2.3% TransAlta Corp TA 0.9%
Osaka Gas Co Ltd 9532 JP -1.8% Constellation Energy Group Inc CEG -0.2% Brookfield Renewable Power Fun BRC-U 0.0%
Chubu Electric Power Co Inc 9502 JP -2.3% PG&E Corp PCG -0.4% Atlantic Power Corp ATP -0.7%
Tokyo Gas Co Ltd 9531 JP -2.7% Nicor Inc GAS -0.5% Northland Power Income Fund NPI-U -1.0%

Bold = move of more than 5%

Page 5  March 29, 2010 (Back to Index)


Market Elements

Canadian Market Movers


 Petrominerales (PMG) – analyst upgrade party on production report – BMO, CP

Energy Materials Industrials Consumer Discretionary Technology Financials


Symbol H/L Last %Chg Symbol H/L Last %Chg Symbol H/L Last %Chg Symbol H/L Last %Chg Symbol H/L Last %Chg Symbol H/L Last %Chg
PD-U 7.78 4.8% MX  25.89 3.0% BBD/B  6.00 2.0% MG/A H 63.33 0.0% XIT  7.63 0.2% XFN  23.68 -0.0%
ESI 14.61 0.6% POT  123.04 -0.8% CAE  9.89 -0.1% LNR  18.98 1.9% OTC  48.78 0.3% RY  59.45 -0.6%
TDG 6.95 3.5% AGU  72.19 -0.0% RNO 6. 18 -0.1% MRE  8.90 1.1% MN 3.80 0.2% TD  75.57 -0.5%
SVY 6.98 0.4% CCL/B  28.73 0.2% VIC-U 16. 05 -1.5% WPT  16.78 2.0% CX L 0.74 -8.6% BNS  51.09 0.0%
TCW 13. 26 -1.2% CAS 8.32 0.8% WFI H 28.21 2.5% BLD 2.96 -4.2% MMC 0. 23 -8.1% BMO  61.75 -0.1%
SCL/A  28.15 -0.0% TCK/B H 43.19 4.1% SNC  49.97 0.2% AZD 0.25 -5.7% GIB/A  15.20 -0.8% CM  74.97 0.0%
MTL  16.17 0.8% IVN  17.45 3.8% ARE  13.93 -0.5% ZNN  2.00 -13.7% MTK  3.60 1.9% NA  61.90 -0.0%
CFW 21. 50 -0.4% FM  92.56 2.0% GNV-U  27.80 0.2% DII/B  33.02 2.2% CTY  18.16 -0.6% CWB  24.25 -1.0%
PSI 11. 35 -0.3% IMN 56.56 0.1% BDT-U 31. 40 -0.4% GIL H 27.05 0.5% MDA 37. 65 -0.3% LB  43.80 -0.7%
FES 12. 40 -0.7% LUN  5.05 1.8% KHD US  14.95 0.0% GC 7.83 0.0% CSU H 42.85 0.2% MIC  26.91 0.0%
TESO US 11.17 -1.5% EQN 3.79 6.7% CUQ 19.70 0.5% THI  33.65 0.1% DSG  6.70 -1.7% HCG  43.48 0.0%
SU 31.95 3.5% S  8.28 1.4% SDC  13.87 -0.2% MTY  9.50 -0.5% CMG  16.95 -1.4% ETC  24.25 1.0%
IMO  38.99 0.7% HBM 13. 11 -1.5% CSIQ US 23.80 8.0% BPF-U  11.85 0.0% ESL 7.61 0.1% FN-U  21.79 2.4%
HSE  28.14 2.9% TCM 13.82 3.0% TIH  29.70 0.7% PZA-U  7.36 -1.2% ENA 0. 56 -6.6% MKP  12.90 -0.1%
CVE  25.54 1.7% QUA 15. 89 -0.5% NFI-U  11.02 0.5% AW-U  16.25 0.9% MKX H 12.04 0.3% FC-U  11.35 -0.1%
IOC US 63.98 3.1% FNX  13.92 0.4% AFN  36.42 1.7% KEG-U  12.11 -0.0% RKN  1.52 -0.6% HEQ 7. 10 -0.1%
PVE-U 7. 69 -0.6% WTN H 6.12 3.7% ATA 7.21 1.5% CWI-U 5.22 -0.3% TWT 3.35 -4.8% DHF-U  17.60 -0.5%
CLL H 1.62 5.1% NDM  9.44 1.6% ARF-U 21. 41 -1.3% AER 10.60 0.4% ABT 5. 93 -0.3% OCX H 28.65 1.7%
CNQ  73.45 2.1% TKO 5.24 0.3% WJX-U H 27.38 1.7% MDZ/A  10.80 -2.7% BWC 10.00 0.0% X  29.20 -1.2%
ECA 30.99 2.1% ORA 3. 71 -0.5% GLV/A  9.10 -1.6% ACM/A  35.63 0.6% AXX 1.71 1.1% QC  1.30 0.0%
TLM 17.21 2.0% MDI 25.45 2.5% FTT  18.29 2.3% CJR/B  19.74 0.4% RIM 77.26 0.1% CSF H 14.99 1.1%
COS-U 29.30 2.4% GCE  8.30 1.9% SPB  14.14 -0.4% TVA/B  15.40 -0.2% AAH  32.00 -0.7% IGM H 45.53 1.1%
NXY 25.05 3.5% CTQ  8.14 0.7% RUS H 19.98 2.4% SJR/B  20.15 0.0% DWI 9. 73 -4.0% CIX  21.31 0.5%
PWT-U  21.46 -0.6% AVM  3.85 1.8% RCH H 23.65 0.3% CCA  42.42 0.1% WIN 2.79 2.9% AGF/B  18.32 -0.9%
CPG  39.15 0.6% ABX 38.60 0.4% CWX  4.77 -0.2% CGO  33.99 0.4% SW 8.66 0.3% DC/A  13.57 1.6%
UPL US 46.64 5.5% G 38.32 0.6% CVL  13.40 -0.7% CGX-U H 20.25 1.8% CDV 3.07 0.6% SII 4. 09 -4.6%
AET-U  20.70 -1.5% K  17.69 1.2% TCL/A  13.57 1.1% IMX H 18.05 2.9% RCM 19.70 0.0% U  5.90 -0.1%
PBG  55.10 2.1% AEM  57.31 0.3% BIN  18.02 -0.9% LGF US  6.24 0.6% SVC  1.92 4.3% GS  21.80 3.4%
NKO  106.40 3.0% YRI 10.22 0.6% NAL  9.02 4.0% FMN 1.65 0.0% VCM 6. 55 -1.6% PNP 1.79 5.9%
PBN  26.92 1.7% ELD 12.42 -0.2% MLX  12.50 -2.7% TRI  36.69 -0.8% EXF  6.49 2.2% GCG/A  7.82 -1.0%
PRE  20.30 1.0% IMG 13.90 1.0% RBA US 21.58 -1.0% YLO-U  6.22 0.3% TZT  1.69 1.1% DW H 15.12 2.3%
ERF-U 23.70 0.4% RBI  20.60 2.4% BDI H 20.40 4.7% QBR/B  35.05 1.9% WEW  0.58 -1.6% GMP  14.20 2.6%
BTE-U  34.25 -2.3% FNV 27.48 1.4% GW  11.25 0.3% TS/B  9.96 2.2% ET 14.10 0.0% CF  11.08 -0.7%
PGF-U  11.61 0.0% CG  13.31 -0.5% MSI-U  10.34 1.3% GVC  2.22 -2.2% PUR 4. 60 -3.1% WES  3.27 -0.3%
BNP-U  23.51 -1.3% OSK  8.79 0.9% STN 25.80 1.9% UNS  30.24 -0.2% CTW/S 2.00 0.0% MFC 20.08 -1.0%
PMG H 34.10 8.1% IGT 110. 91 -0.6% IBG-U 14.50 0.0% SCC  28.93 -0.2% MT 4. 61 -0.2% GWO H 28.86 0.1%
VET-U  35.34 0.0% NGD 4.43 3.7% WJA  13.70 1.1% CTC/A  55.10 0.2% VNP  5.29 -0.7% PWF  33.50 -0.4%
PRQ 11.54 0.7% AGI  14.00 0.7% TRZ/B 12.75 1.5% DOL  21.90 0.0% DSA  8.40 1.8% SLF 33.25 0.9%
DAY-U  10.57 0.0% GBU  4.36 -3.5% JAZ-U  4.50 -0.2% RET/A  16.62 -0.1% CLS  11.34 2.1% POW  30.80 0.0%
NAE-U 12. 75 -0.0% GAM 8.64 1.5% AC/B  2.18 3.8% CTU/A  13.71 1.2% SO  10.00 0.0% IAG  34.61 -0.8%
PEY-U  13.41 1.4% SMF H 6.05 6.7% CNR  61.75 -0.0% GLN  15.15 0.0% MSD  23.40 0.3% FFH 374.25 0.0%
BNK  9.23 0.0% DGC  18.72 -0.5% CP  56.60 1.6% RON  15.60 -1.6% GND H 6.60 2.4% IFC H 44.38 2.1%
POU 16.15 3.5% NG  7.49 1.2% TFI  9.83 0.2% FGL 14.35 -0.0% ZL  1.80 2.8% XRE  12.10 0.4%
NVA 11.85 0.0% XGD 19.70 0.9% STB  5.21 -0.1% IDG  17.89 1.0% HR-U  16.70 -0.1%
AAV 7.08 3.8% EGU 6. 72 -0.1% CSS H 9.18 2.0% LNF  12.40 0.8% Utilities REF-U  28.16 1.3%
UTS  2.50 0.8% LSG 2.62 0.3% WTE-U  16.31 -2.2% GBT/A  35.65 0.0% Symbol H/L Last %Chg CUF-U  19.14 -0.9%
BIR 8.74 3.5% RMX 3. 90 -1.2% Health Care Consumer Staples FTS  29.02 0.7% CRR-U H 12.05 0.5%
CR  17.38 1.0% SGR 3.30 3.1% Symbol H/L Last %Chg Symbol H/L Last %Chg EMA  24.64 0.7% AP-U  20.50 0.0%
TNP  3.59 -4.2% JAG 9. 90 -1.4% IM  6.69 0.6% SC  43.60 0.0% GZM-U  16.30 0.3% D-U  25.85 -1.8%
IE 3.44 2.6% GSC 3.91 1.5% EKO 1.32 0.0% PJC/A  9.93 0.8% CU H 49.10 1.0% WRK-U  15.05 -1.3%
FRU-U  17.02 0.4% NGX 3. 08 -0.3% FMD-U  9.23 -1.5% GCL  12.23 -0.9% ACO/X  51.00 0.6% BEI-U H 41.60 0.6%
CLT 19.46 0.9% SEA 25.01 1.0% CLC-U  12.60 -1.7% L  38.00 -0.6% JE-U  14.30 0.9% CAR-U  14.56 0.1%
QEC 4.03 2.0% VEN 9. 30 -1.0% DR-U  10.85 0.3% WN  70.78 0.7% TA  22.67 0.8% NPR-U H 25.20 1.2%
LEG  13.55 3.1% R  1.93 1.5% SXC  69.67 2.0% MRU/A  41.93 -0.2% BRC-U  21.30 0.0% REI-U  18.74 -0.8%
TET 8.61 -0.1% ARZ 4. 83 -0.4% CNJ 4.30 -2.4% ATD/B 18.54 0.8% NPI-U  13.33 -1.0% CWT-U  21.49 -0.6%
PXX  2.63 1.1% CRU 0.46 4.5% TH  5.15 1.5% EMP/A  51.54 -1.4% CPA-U  17.98 0.2% PMZ-U  17.39 -1.5%
BNE  36.80 0.8% JIN H 4.89 3.3% QLT  5.36 -0.1% NWF-U  18.05 -1.4% ATP  12.67 -0.7% MRT-U  13.86 2.4%
PMT-U 4. 77 -0.6% MFL 9. 66 -0.2% BU  9.50 -2.0% LIQ-U  17.34 -0.3% CPX  22.61 -0.8% AX-U  11.49 -1.1%
GO 6.94 2.6% XRC 6. 35 -3.2% ONC 3. 20 -0.9% BR-U H 17.00 0.4% RPG  3.02 1.0% CSH-U  7.40 -0.1%
CMF 7. 75 -1.2% HRG 0.72 2.8% HBP 2.70 0.3% CDL/A 15.43 0.1% AQN  4.48 -2.1% EXE-U  10.75 0.4%
OPC 2.05 3.0% GBG 1.74 -0.5% RVX  7.04 4.7% BCB 8.13 2.2% BLX  10.44 0.5% INN-U H 6.27 2.9%
SEO  10.22 -0.4% SLW 15.97 2.0% NYMX US 3.56 -2.1% VT 9.63 -0.5% MXY  1.47 -1.3% BAM/A H 26.33 0.6%
KEY-U  26.69 0.1% PAA 23.44 1.3% YM 1.19 0.8% ABC 1.42 -3.4% IEF-U  12.10 0.4% FCR  22.20 1.0%
PKI-U 11. 50 -0.8% SSO  17.92 -0.1% TTH  2.66 -1.4% SAP  29.38 1.1% MPT-U  7.18 -0.8% MRC H 46.99 1.0%
TRP  37.10 -0.2% SVM 7.00 0.4% MDG 0.52 0.0% CBY  50.96 0.1% PCC 3.55 1.4% BPP  19.25 -0.0%
ENB  48.71 0.3% ELR  1.46 3.5% AEZ  0.83 -1.1% MFI 10.47 0.5% BPT-U  4.55 1.1% PRK  5.51 0.5%
IPL-U  11.93 1.8% HW 10.07 1.4% BVF H 17.17 2.7% AGT  32.50 -1.9% Telecom Services BPO H 16.11 1.1%
PIF-U  17.35 0.5% PPN 1. 35 -3.5% PLB H 24.95 3.9% RSI-U  4.95 0.2% Symbol H/L Last %Chg MIM/A 13. 12 -0.4%
FCE-U H 10.80 0.0% GNA 7.82 3.0% COM H 6.73 2.4% BXI 1.88 1.6% PIX 1. 09 -0.9% KMP 8. 26 -1.7%
ALA-U  18.40 -0.5% CLM H 9.22 2.2% DDS 1.57 3.2% PBH  14.67 -0.2% BCE  30.30 0.4% MEQ  10.40 0.0%
CCO 27.94 2.0% LIF-U  49.59 -0.9% ANP 1.14 3.6% SOY  4.24 0.4% T H 37.73 0.8% MRD  11.50 -0.8%
SGQ 16. 52 -1.1% TRE 19. 05 -1.2% NRI 0.25 -2.0% HLF  10.90 -0.1% BA-U  25.73 -0.6% GDC  3.80 -4.7%
UUU 2.71 2.6% WFT H 39.29 0.1% MDS 8. 17 -2.1% AG-U 2.75 1.8% MBT  31.72 0.6% FSV H 23.22 1.9%
DML 1.45 2.1% CFP  9.36 0.1% PTI 2. 53 -0.3% ATB  16.95 0.2% WRX 0. 89 -4.3% AIF-U  14.41 1.8%
XEG  17.79 1.9% NBD 16. 29 -0.4% GLG 7.42 3.0% RCI/B  34.60 0.4% BRE-U  13.00 -1.7%

H/L = at a new closing 52- wk High/Low; / = within 10% of the 52- wk High/Low; Blue = S&P/TSX 60 member, Italics = ETF, Bold = move of more than 5%

Page 6  March 29, 2010 (Back to Index)


Market Elements

Earnings Expected Next Session

Company Ticker Country Sector Industry MktCap Period Time


Cobalt International Energy Inc CIE US U. S. Energy OG E&P 4,540 Q4 Bef-mkt
China North East Petroleum Holdings Ltd NEP US U. S. Energy OG E&P 230 Q4
China Oilfield Services Ltd 2883 HK China Energy OG Drill 2,370 Y
Gammon Gold Inc. GAM CN Canada Materials Gold 1,140 Q4 Bef-mkt
Fronteer Development Group FRG CN Canada Materials DvrsMng 600 Q4
Greystar Resources Ltd GSL CN Canada Materials Gold 490 Q4
Farallon Resources Ltd FAN CN Canada Materials DvrsMng 270 Q4 Bef-mkt
Entree Gold Inc ETG CN Canada Materials DvrsMng 260 Q4
Copper Mountain Corp CUM CN Canada Materials DvrsMng 220 Q4
Western Copper Corp WRN CN Canada Materials DvrsMng 140 Q4
Mountain Province Diamonds MPV CN Canada Materials PrecMet 140 Q3
Globestar Mining Corp GMI CN Canada Materials DvrsMng 100 Q4
Polaris Minerals Corporation PLS CN Canada Materials CstrMat 90 Q4
Ivernia West Inc IVW CN Canada Materials DvrsMng 80 Q4 Aft-mkt
Scorpio Mining Corp SPM CN Canada Materials PrecMet 70 Q4
Commerce Resources Corp CCE CN Canada Materials DvrsMng 40 Q1
HB Fuller Co FUL US U. S. Materials SpecChm 1,130 Q1 Aft-mkt
Geovic Mining Corporation GMC CN U. S. Materials DvrsMng 70 Q4
Mines Management MGN US U. S. Materials DvrsMng 60 Q4
Kazakhmys PLC KAZ LN U.K. Materials DvrsMng 12,170 Y 07:00
Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Ltd 2689 HK Bermuda Materials PapProd 7,680 S1
Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd 2899 HK China Materials Gold 3,230 Y
Jiangxi Copper Co Ltd 358 HK China Materials DvrsMng 2,960 Y
Nufarm Ltd/Australia NUF AU Australia Materials Fert&Ag 1,730 S1 10:00
Maanshan Iron & Steel 323 HK China Materials Steel 990 Y
Iberian Minerals Corp IZN CN Switzerland Materials DvrsMng 160 Q4 Aft-mkt
Westshore Terminals Income Fnd WTE.UN CN Canada Industrials MarineSrv 1,210 Q4
Foremost Income Fund FMO.UN CN Canada Industrials CnstFmM 140 Q4
Layne Christensen Co LAYN US U. S. Industrials Cns&Eng 540 Q4
Team Inc TISI US U. S. Industrials EnvionServ 310 Q3 Aft-mkt
Advanced Battery Technologies Inc ABAT US U. S. Industrials ElcCmpEq 260 Q4
Hutchison Whampoa Ltd 13 HK Hong Kong Industrials IndCongl 31,910 Y
COSCO Pacific Ltd 1199 HK Bermuda Industrials MarineSrv 3,540 Y
Wendel MF FP France Industrials IndCongl 3,070 Y
TAM SA TAM US Brazil Industrials Airline 1,590 Q1
Ultrapetrol Bahamas Ltd ULTR US Bahamas Industrials Marine 170 Q4 Aft-mkt
Uni-Select Inc UNS CN Canada CMR Disc Distrib 580 Q4
Charming Shoppes Inc CHRS US U. S. CMR Disc ApparlRtl 780 Q4
Sealy Corp ZZ US U. S. CMR Disc HomeFurn 340 Q1 Aft-mkt
Fuqi International Inc FUQI US U. S. CMR Disc Aprl&Gds 320 Q4
Ports Design Ltd 589 HK Bermuda CMR Disc Aprl&Gds 1,540 Y
Bio-extraction Inc BXI CN Canada CMR Stap PkgFdMt 290 Q4 Aft-mkt
China Agri-Industries Holdings Ltd 606 HK Hong Kong CMR Stap AgriProd 5,520 Y
Anadolu Efes Biracilik Ve Malt Sanayii AS AEFES TI Turkey CMR Stap Brewers 4,660 Y
Cia Cervecerias Unidas SA CCU US Chile CMR Stap Brewers 2,340 Q1
MI Developments Inc MIM.A CN Canada Financials REstOpCo 590 Q4 Bef-mkt
Forest City Enterprises Inc FCE.A US U. S. Financials REstOpCo 1,840 Q4 Aft-mkt
Cheung Kong Holdings Ltd 1 HK Hong Kong Financials REstDevl 29,840 Y
Citic Securities 600030 CH China Financials InvBnkBrk 26,630 Y
Bank of Communications Co Ltd 3328 HK China Financials DiversBnk 25,640 Y
Henderson Land Development Co Ltd 12 HK Hong Kong Financials REstDvAct 15,500 S1
Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI IJ Indonesia Financials DiversBnk 11,360 Y
Country Garden Holdings Co 2007 HK Cayman Financials REstDevl 5,720 Y
Banco Popolare Scarl BP IM Italy Financials DiversBnk 4,500 Y
Uranium Ltd UML LN Guernsey Financials AsstMgmt 120 S1
Exfo Electro-Optical Engin. EXF CN Canada Info Tech ComEquip 140 Q2 Aft-mkt
SAIC Inc SAI US U. S. Info Tech ITConsult 7,630 Q4 Aft-mkt
Neopost SA NEO FP France Info Tech OffElectr 2,520 Y Aft-mkt
LDK Solar Company Ltd. LDK US Cayman Info Tech Semi 920 Q4 Bef-mkt
Manz Automation AG M5Z GR Germany Info Tech Semi 360 Y
China Communications Services Corp Ltd 552 HK China Telecom IntegTelSrv 990 Y
China Longyuan Power Group Corp 916 HK China Utilities IPPTrad 3,270 Y
Plambeck Neue Energien AG PNE3 GR Germany Utilities IPPTrad 120 Y

Red = Canadian incorporated, Blue = U.S. incorporated, Highlighted = S&P Global 1200 Index member

Page 7  March 29, 2010 (Back to Index)


Back to Index

Economic Research
March 30, 2010
Research Comment

Dr. Sherry Cooper (800) 613-0205


Jennifer Lee (416) 359-4092
Carl Campus (416) 359-6792

A.M. Notes

Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist


sherry.cooper@bmonb.com
416-359-4112

NORTH AMERICA – Jennifer Lee

The Day Ahead…..

The state of the wavering U.S. housing market and consumer will be in focus today. At 9 pm ET, the closely watched S&P Case-
Shiller house price index will be released for January. Home values remain below year-ago levels but the declines have become
less deep……from a low of -19% in January of 2009 to a reading of -3.1% in December. In other words, less negative, which is one
of the much-used phrases during this recovery. The month-to-month changes have hovered in the 0.2%-to-0.3% range over the past
few months, which are slower than the 0.7%-to-1.1% gains seen over the three months prior, suggesting that the factors that had
pushed prices up more significantly are now behind us (example: the possible end of the homebuyer tax credit). We’re expecting the
improvement in house prices to head closer to the zero line (and that much closer to positive terrain) but no matter what the reading,
the big unknown of how many foreclosures could flood the market will still be hovering in the background and thus, keep a lid on
any sharper gain in prices. Even with the new homeowner assistance plans that the White House announced last week.

Still, some deals will be seized before the April 30th deadline. See the housing story on page B1 of today’s New York
Times….“Spurt of Home Buying as End of Tax Credit Looms: Nine hundred days after putting their house on the market,
Andrew and Jane Palestini were beginning to think they might be stuck in Iowa forever. The looming expiration of the government’s
housing tax credit pushed them into action. They dropped their price by an additional $10,000, to $235,000. Somewhat to their
shock, a buyer emerged. The house is now under contract. After several disastrous months for home sales across the country, when
volume dropped by 23 percent, the pace appears to be picking up again. These deals will be reflected in the national sales reports
when they become final, this month or next. There is no evidence that prices have begun to move in response to the higher volume.
Indeed, so many homes are coming on the market that prices might well fall further.”

At 10 am, the Conference Board will release its survey of consumer confidence for March. The index is expected to pick up by 4
pts to 50 in the month, and while any improvement is welcomed, such a move would only retrace about half of the prior month’s
hefty fall. Key to watch will be the net ‘jobs hard to get’ component, given that the March nonfarm payroll #s are out on Friday.
Although this component rose in February (bad news), the jobless rate was unchanged at 9.7%. Another increase in the hard to get
series will suggest that the jobless rate is heading higher again after topping out in October. Also, keep an eye on the expectations
component, as it would give a good hint on buying intentions in coming months…on big-ticket items such as cars and homes, other
smaller durable goods such as air conditions, vacuum cleaners, washer/dryers, etc…..as well as on non-discretionary expenses such
as vacations.

Please refer to pages 5- for Disclosure Statements.


Sector Comment Economic Research

Provincial Budget Update: In Canada, the provincial budgets continue to roll in. This week, it
is Newfoundland & Labrador, along with Quebec. After this, leaves Nova Scotia and PEI.
Yesterday, Newfoundland & Labrador reported their new numbers for FY2010/11.
According to our Robert Kavcic, the Province “is forecasting a reduced $194.3 mln deficit
(0.8% of GDP) for FY2010/11, as rebounding offshore oil revenues offset still-strong spending
growth. The deficit is an improvement from the $294.9 mln shortfall now estimated for
FY2009/10, which marks another major oil-fuelled improvement ($148 mln) from December’s
update. Going forward, the Province expects to post deficits averaging $175 mln in each of the
next two fiscal years, as revenues and program spending both post sturdy increases.”

Today, Quebec takes its turn in the spotlight. Our Benjamin Reitzes cautioned in Focus last
week not to “anticipate many goodies, if any, in what will be a “slim” budget according to
Quebec Finance Minister Raymond Bachand. The latest provincial forecast has the deficit
holding steady at $4.7 bln (1.5% of GDP) in 2010/11. Look for some clarity on the savings
measures that were yet to be identified in last year’s budget, as they remain a significant wild
card. Expect a 1 ppt hike in the QST, and some increased user fees, as outlined in the 2009/10
budget, which will boost revenues and bring Quebec towards its goal of a balanced budget by
2013/14.”

Canada’s industrial product prices for February are released at 8:30 am. Look for prices that
are leaving the factory gate to be little changed as the CAD softened a little, on average, in the
month.

Paul Jenkins did not put in his two cents on monetary policy during his speech yesterday to the
Economic Club of Canada in Toronto, but the BoC’s Deputy Governor did address a longer-
term issue……productivity. Calling Canada’s track record of investing in modern,
productivity-enhancing equipment and structures ‘not…impressive”, he stressed the importance
of Canadian companies to boost productivity, given healthy corporate balance sheets, good
profitability, the profits-to-GDP ratio back to its long-term average, low leverage ratios and
high liquidity.

Our Sherry Cooper also weighed in recently with her views on “Canada’s Disturbing
Productivity Performance”. See (Link to Article)

Backgrounders:

“Mortgage rate boost signals rock-bottom era is over: Canadian banks delivered the first
clear sign that the era of rock-bottom interest rates is over by suddenly hiking mortgage rates, a
move that will cost Canadians more to finance home purchases and likely hasten an expected
slowdown of the red-hot housing sector. Surging home sales and prices were already expected
to cool in the second half of this year as more listings hit the market and the Harmonized Sales
Tax adds to purchase costs in Ontario and British Columbia. Hikes on fixed-rate mortgages
announced by three banks Monday are expected to contribute to the slowdown as home buyers
face higher costs amid a growing expectation that interest rates are likely entering a phase of
higher levels.” Globe and Mail, page A1

“Treasury hires M Stanley bankers to offload Citi stake: The Treasury expects to sell its 27
per cent in stake in Citigroup before the end of the year in an “orderly and measured fashion”,
as it tries to turn a profit from one of the most high-profile government investments of the
financial crisis. The Treasury said on Monday that it had hired Morgan Stanley bankers to
handle the sale of about 7.7bn Citi shares, which it received in exchange for its 2008 bail-out.
The government had hoped to begin selling its Citi stake last year, but when the bank’s share
price dropped below $3.20 in December it delayed those plans amid fears that it might lose

Page 2 • March 30, 2010 (Back to Index)


Sector Comment Economic Research

money on the investment. Since then, Citi shares have risen about 30 per cent, and at current
prices the Treasury would make about $7.5bn in profits on the sale of the stake.” Financial
Times, page 1

“State Debt Woes Grow Too Big to Camouflage: California, New York and other states are
showing many of the same signs of debt overload that recently took Greece to the brink —
budgets that will not balance, accounting that masks debt, the use of derivatives to plug holes,
and armies of retired public workers who are counting on benefits that are proving harder and
harder to pay. And states are responding in sometimes desperate ways, raising concerns that
they, too, could face a debt crisis.” New York Times, page A1

OVERSEAS – Carl Campus

The USD index bounced off its weakest level in 4 days but still remains relatively soft this
morning as the GBP leads the currency pack following some positive economic data. After
falling to the lowest levels of the year last week, the GBP strengthened towards $1.51 after a
final count on Q4:2009 GDP revealed that the U.K. grew slightly more than expected. In
separate reports, the Nationwide Building Society said U.K. house prices rose a greater-than-
expected +0.7% in March leaving prices 9% above year-ago levels, while the current account
deficit unexpectedly narrowed in Q4 to 1.7 billion pounds from a revised 5.9 billion pound
deficit in Q3 of last year. European markets started the trading session off strong but have
since retreated and remain relatively unchanged (FTSE -0.1%, DAX unch, CAC unch). The
EUR followed the same trajectory and also remains flat on the day.

Commodity prices are mixed this morning… Gold +0.1%… Oil and NatGas +0.1%… Copper
+0.4%.... Grains +0.3-0.9%...

In Asia… Industrial production in Japan snapped a streak of 11 months of gains, falling


0.9% in February. While a decline in output was expected, the magnitude was almost double
the consensus estimate (-0.5%). Another report showed Japan’s jobless rate held steady at
4.9% in February after peaking in mid-2009. The Nikkei managed a healthy gain of 1.0% on
Tuesday while the JPY softened in early morning trading.

China’s Chen Says Stronger Yuan Can’t Solve Trade Gap… “Chinese Commerce Minister
Chen Deming said increasing the value of the yuan won’t overcome the lopsided trade with the
U.S., and urged American policy makers to avoid confrontation.” Bloomberg
(Link to Article)

Banks come under fire in TV clash… “Britain’s would-be chancellors declared open season
on bankers on Monday night, in a televised pre-election debate that saw the three contenders
for Number 11 pour scorn on alleged greed in the financial services sector.” Financial Times
(Link to Article)

Ireland to launch €81bn bad loan bank… “Ireland will on Tuesday begin operating a new
“bad bank” to house €81bn in bad property loans left over from the financial crisis and set out
new capital requirements that are expected to see the further nationalisation of its banking
sector.” Financial Times
(Link to Article)

Page 3 • March 30, 2010 (Back to Index)


Sector Comment Economic Research

Currency Market
Current Change High Low
7:01 AM
US$ Index 81.18 -0.18 81.283 81.006
C$ 1.0189 -0.0022 1.0222 1.0180
C$ (US cents) 98.15 +0.21 97.82 98.23
GBP 1.5085 +0.0096 1.5090 1.4976
EUR 1.3478 -0.0006 1.3533 1.3461
JPY 92.54 +0.08 92.68 92.15
A$ 0.9203 +0.0026 0.9212 0.9161
CNY 6.8258 -0.0006

AM CHARTS

• Not Everything Is Going The Loonie’s Way


• Good Consumer News…..For A Change
• Eurozone Inflation Still Not Worrisome

ON THE WEB: (Link to Charts)

(If your email application cannot directly open the AM Charts document, (1) copy the text of
the appropriate link above, (2) paste it into the address field of your web browser, and (3) press
the ENTER key.)

Page 4 • March 30, 2010 (Back to Index)


BMO Capital Markets Disclosure Statements

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

Analyst's Certification
As to each company covered in this report, each analyst hereby certifies that the views expressed accurately reflect the analyst’s personal views about
the subject securities or issuers. Each analyst also certifies that no part of the analyst’s compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to
the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Analysts who prepared this report are compensated based upon (among other factors) the overall profitability of BMO Capital Markets and their
affiliates, which includes the overall profitability of investment banking services. Compensation for research is based on effectiveness in generating
new ideas and in communication of ideas to clients, performance of recommendations, accuracy of earnings estimates, and service to clients.

Company Specific Disclosures


For Important Disclosures on the stocks discussed in this report, please go to
http://researchglobal.bmocapitalmarkets.com/Company_Disclosure_Public.asp

Distribution of Ratings (Dec. 31, 2009)

Rating BMOCM US BMOCM US BMOCM US BMOCM BMOCM First Call


Category BMO Rating Universe* IB Clients** IB Clients*** Universe**** IB Clients***** Universe
Buy Outperform 32.2% 12.3% 38.3% 36.1% 47.9% 50%
Hold Market Perform 62.6% 10.2% 61.7% 56.9% 48.9% 43%
Sell Underperform 5.3% 0% 0% 6.9% 3.2% 7%
* Reflects rating distribution of all companies covered by BMO Capital Markets Corp. equity research analysts.
** Reflects rating distribution of all companies from which BMO Capital Markets Corp. has received compensation for Investment Banking services
as percentage within ratings category.
*** Reflects rating distribution of all companies from which BMO Capital Markets Corp. has received compensation for Investment Banking
services as percentage of Investment Banking clients.
**** Reflects rating distribution of all companies covered by BMO Capital Markets equity research analysts.
***** Reflects rating distribution of all companies from which BMO Capital Markets has received compensation for Investment Banking services as
percentage of Investment Banking clients.

Ratings and Sector Key


We use the following ratings system definitions:
OP = Outperform - Forecast to outperform the market;
Mkt = Market Perform - Forecast to perform roughly in line with the market;
Und = Underperform - Forecast to underperform the market;
(S) = speculative investment;
NR = No rating at this time;
R = Restricted – Dissemination of research is currently restricted.

Market performance is measured by a benchmark index such as the S&P/TSX Composite Index, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, as appropriate for each
company. BMO Capital Markets eight Top 15 lists guide investors to our best ideas according to different objectives (Canadian large, small, growth,
value, income, quantitative; and US large, US small) have replaced the Top Pick rating.

Other Important Disclosures


For Important Disclosures on the stocks discussed in this report, please go to
http://researchglobal.bmocapitalmarkets.com/Company_Disclosure_Public.asp or write to Editorial Department, BMO Capital Markets, 3 Times
Square, New York, NY 10036 or Editorial Department, BMO Capital Markets, 1 First Canadian Place, Toronto, Ontario, M5X 1H3.

Prior BMO Capital Markets Ratings Systems


http://researchglobal.bmocapitalmarkets.com/documents/2009/prior_rating_systems.pdf
Dissemination of Research
Our research publications are available via our web site http://bmocapitalmarkets.com/research/. Institutional clients may also receive our research via
FIRST CALL, FIRST CALL Research Direct, Reuters, Bloomberg, FactSet, Capital IQ, and TheMarkets.com. All of our research is made widely
available at the same time to all BMO Capital Markets client groups entitled to our research. Additional dissemination may occur via email or regular
mail. Please contact your investment advisor or institutional salesperson for more information.

Conflict Statement
A general description of how BMO Financial Group identifies and manages conflicts of interest is contained in our public facing policy for managing
conflicts of interest in connection with investment research which is available at
http://researchglobal.bmocapitalmarkets.com/Conflict_Statement_Public.asp

Page 1 • March 30, 2010 (Back to Index)


BMO Capital Markets Disclosure Statements

General Disclaimer
“BMO Capital Markets” is a trade name used by the BMO Investment Banking Group, which includes the wholesale arm of Bank of Montreal and its
subsidiaries BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. and BMO Nesbitt Burns Ltée./Ltd., BMO Capital Markets Ltd. in the U.K. and BMO Capital Markets Corp. in the
U.S. BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., BMO Capital Markets Ltd. and BMO Capital Markets Corp are affiliates. Bank of Montreal or its subsidiaries (“BMO
Financial Group”) has lending arrangements with, or provide other remunerated services to, many issuers covered by BMO Capital Markets. The
opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are those of BMO Capital Markets as of the date of this report and are subject to change
without notice. BMO Capital Markets endeavours to ensure that the contents have been compiled or derived from sources that we believe are reliable
and contain information and opinions that are accurate and complete. However, BMO Capital Markets makes no representation or warranty, express or
implied, in respect thereof, takes no responsibility for any errors and omissions contained herein and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising
from any use of, or reliance on, this report or its contents. Information may be available to BMO Capital Markets or its affiliates that is not reflected in
this report. The information in this report is not intended to be used as the primary basis of investment decisions, and because of individual client
objectives, should not be construed as advice designed to meet the particular investment needs of any investor. This material is for information purposes
only and is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. BMO Capital Markets or its affiliates will buy from or sell to customers
the securities of issuers mentioned in this report on a principal basis. BMO Capital Markets or its affiliates, officers, directors or employees have a long
or short position in many of the securities discussed herein, related securities or in options, futures or other derivative instruments based thereon. The
reader should assume that BMO Capital Markets or its affiliates may have a conflict of interest and should not rely solely on this report in evaluating
whether or not to buy or sell securities of issuers discussed herein.
Additional Matters
To Canadian Residents: BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. and BMO Nesbitt Burns Ltee/Ltd., affiliates of BMO Capital Markets Corp., furnish this report to
Canadian residents and accept responsibility for the contents herein subject to the terms set out above. Any Canadian person wishing to effect
transactions in any of the securities included in this report should do so through BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. and/or BMO Nesbitt Burns Ltee/Ltd.
To U.S. Residents: BMO Capital Markets Corp. and/or BMO Nesbitt Burns Securities Ltd., affiliates of BMO NB, furnish this report to U.S. residents
and accept responsibility for the contents herein, except to the extent that it refers to securities of Bank of Montreal. Any U.S. person wishing to effect
transactions in any security discussed herein should do so through BMO Capital Markets Corp. and/or BMO Nesbitt Burns Securities Ltd.
To U.K. Residents: In the UK this document is published by BMO Capital Markets Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial
Services Authority. The contents hereof are intended solely for the use of, and may only be issued or passed on to, (I) persons who have professional
experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order
2005 (the “Order”) or (II) high net worth entities falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the Order (all such persons together referred to as “relevant
persons”). The contents hereof are not intended for the use of and may not be issued or passed on to, retail clients.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST


BMO Financial Group (NYSE, TSX: BMO) is an integrated financial services provider offering a range of retail banking, wealth management, and investment and
corporate banking products. BMO serves Canadian retail clients through BMO Bank of Montreal and BMO Nesbitt Burns. In the United States, retail clients are
served through Harris N.A. Investment and corporate banking services are provided in Canada and the US through BMO Capital Markets.
BMO Capital Markets is a trade name used by BMO Financial Group for the wholesale banking businesses of Bank of Montreal, Harris N.A. and BMO Ireland Plc,
and the institutional broker dealer businesses of BMO Capital Markets Corp. (Member SIPC), BMO Nesbitt Burns Trading Corp. and BMO Capital Markets GKST
Inc. (Member SIPC) in the U.S., BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. (Member CIPF) in Canada, Europe and Asia, BMO Nesbitt Burns Securities Limited (U.S. registered and
member of FINRA), and BMO Nesbitt Burns Ltée/Ltd. (Member CIPF) in Canada, and BMO Capital Markets Limited in Europe and Australia. “Nesbitt Burns” is a
registered trademark of BMO Nesbitt Burns Corporation Limited, used under license. “BMO Capital Markets” is a trademark of Bank of Montreal, used under license.
"BMO (M-Bar roundel symbol)" is a registered trademark of Bank of Montreal, used under license.
® Registered trademark of Bank of Montreal in the United States, Canada and elsewhere.
TM Trademark Bank of Montreal

©COPYRIGHT 2010 BMO CAPITAL MARKETS CORP.


A member of BMO Financial Group

Page 2 • March 30, 2010 (Back to Index)

You might also like