You’ve seen the big picture, haven’tyou? The typicalbig companywantsbig products. Theywantbig ideas. Ifthey’re big shotswith big ballsthentheyplace big betson a big future. No one wantsthe smallproject. Or tobe the smallprojectmanager. Who wantsto do that?
Problem with the big betapproach isthatyou are limited to a smallnumber ofguesses. You are forced to choose too early. Judging win-nersand losersbefore the race begins. Putting allyour eggsin onebig basket. Or worse – putting allyour faith in one egg.Mostofusacceptthe common sense notion thatriskshould bespread. For some reason itishard for mostcompaniesto spread thatriskbysharing outthe ‘riskdollars’ between manysmallprojects.Some leadersseem to find iteasier to betbig on their own hunchesthan to beton their people.A few yearsago, Whirlpooldecided to make a big beton innovationbymaking hundredsoflittle bets. Instead ofinvesting halfa milliondollarseach on a few ideastheylearned how to take smaller calcu-lated risks. The choice wasno longer allor nothing. Itwas20 milliondollarsin 400 bite-size chunksof$25,000. Enough moneyto testideas, engage smallteamsofpeople and do enough learning toinform future funding decisions. The little betsnow bring in $1 billiona year.Betting big hasother, lessobvious, disadvantages:Mostofthe time, a big projectdevelopsa life ofitsown. No-onewantsto take the decision to write-offallthe moneywasted so far soitbecomesa zombie project- using up resourcesyearsafter itisunnecessaryor unwanted.Often bythe time a big projectiscompleted the advantagesofstarting itare no longer relevant. Competitor productshave overtaken the originalobjectivesso thateven ifthe big projectsucceedsitwillfail.Bizarrely, a big projectislesslikelyto have rigorouscriteria for investmentthan a smallproject. A big bossdoesnothave to justifyhisbig decisions. And, a big decision islessclearlydefined than a smalldecisionbecause there issimplymore ofitto define.Betting smallhelpsin a number ofways:The safestinvestmentsare those thatstartto payoffsoonest. Even better are those thatinform the nextroundofinvestmentdecisions. A smallprojectmaydevelop into a big projecthaving contributed to the successof the company.The smallbetallowsmore people to contribute. Itengagestheir talentsand goodwill. Itencouragesthem toexperimentwith comfortable levelsofresponsibility.Notallideasrequire huge amountsoffunding to take to market, or benefitfrom a large amountofmoneyinthe earlystagesofdevelopment. Theycan be ruined bythe weightofexpectation, and the rush to justifyexpenditure.Toyota believesin betting smallto win big. In one year, itsemployeessuggested over 750,000 ideasfor improvement. The companythen implemented over 80 percent! In isolation, mostsuggestionswere smallandincremental. The totalimpactofquarter ofa million improvementsisto strengthen their culture ofinnovation- getting better isa habitgained through repetition.Sony’ssuccesswith the Walkman showed another side ofbetting smallto win big. Itdid notknow which com-bination offeatureswould mostappealto customersso itdeveloped over two hundred differentmodelseach
Allor nothingbetsare onlywise when thefuture iscertain.Ifwinning iscertain then beteverything. If there’snothing tolose then beteverything.
B E T S MA L L T O WI N B I G
TRUTH
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