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RHB Equity 360° (Strategy, Market, Plantation, Telecom, Steel, Faber, KPJ, PetGas Technical: DRB-Hicom) - 01/04/2010
RHB Equity 360° (Strategy, Market, Plantation, Telecom, Steel, Faber, KPJ, PetGas Technical: DRB-Hicom) - 01/04/2010
Top Story : Market Outlook & Strategy 2Q2010 – Volatile market uptrend amid policy normalisation
Strategy Update
- Good prospects of a sustainable global economic recovery despite a number of global issues and
concerns.
- Whilst both the Malaysian economic and corporate earnings recoveries are gaining pace, valuations are
also back to normal levels.
- The market is however still very under-owned by foreign investors and potentially could be re-rate if these
investors turn positive on the country’s economic reforms to bring about a more competitive economy.
- Meanwhile, we expect external events to dominate market movements and any global policy changes will
likely cause the market to be volatile. Our year-end FBM KLCI target, however, remains unchanged at
1,400 or 15x 2011 earnings.
- In our view, any significant weakness in the market is an opportunity to accumulate quality stocks for
longer-term performance as we believe that a global sovereign credit problem will unlikely unfold and the
global economic recovery is more sustainable than feared.
- Stock picking is key. The challenge is to look for Alpha+ stocks, including recovery leaders and quality
cyclicals that have a strong leverage to the economic recovery.
- In our view, the banking sector would continue to benefit from the economic recovery, while pent-up
demand and new applications will likely attract new focus into the semiconductor industry. In addition, a
base tariff review, which coupled with fundamental recovery in electricity demand, should augur well for
TNB in the power sector, while strong data traffic and attractive dividend yields would present good
investment themes for the telco sector.
Market Update
Sector Update
Building Materials : Japanese and Chinese steelmakers conclude 2Q iron ore benchmark price Overweight
Sector Update
- The world’s top two iron ore producers concluded the 2Q10 iron ore price with Chinese and Japanese
steelmakers at US$110-120/tonne, nearly double the benchmark price in 2009.
- We believe the concluded iron ore benchmark will stabilise global steel prices in 2Q. Also, we believe
domestic steel producers will experience a sharp margin expansion in 1H, as: (1) Most steel producers
managed to stock up raw materials at low prices when prices weakened on seasonal factors in 4Q; and (2)
Steel prices are likely to sustain into 1H.
- We believe global steel prices are likely to take a breather in 2H and price volatility may return. This is
mainly because concerns on overcapacity may resurface.
Corporate Highlights
KPJ : Acquisition of land in Plentong, Johor Bahru for RM7.1m Market Perform (down from OP)
News Update
- Entered into an S&P agreement with JLand Bhd and JCorp for the acquisition of a 3.25 acre land in
Plentong, Johor Bahru, Johor for RM7.07m. Upon completion on the acquisition by 3Q2010, the land will
be developed into a private specialist hospital to be completed by end-2012. Development cost, estimated
at RM54m. Expect commencement of the hospital operations to begin in 2013.
- Purchase consideration deemed to be fair. Overall positive on the deal given that Plentong is a populous
district with an estimated over 500,000 residents covering the towns of Johor Bahru, Permas Jaya and
Pasir Gudang. We expect this hospital to only contribute to the group’s turnover from FY13 onwards and
positively contribute to the bottomline from FY16 onwards.
- No changes to our earnings forecasts. Given the limited upside to our target price of 6% vs. our projected
FBM KLCI return of 9%, we downgrade our recommendation on KPJ to a Market Perform (from
Outperform) with unchanged fair value of RM3.20 based on 14.5x FY10 EPS.
Technical Highlights
Daily Trading Strategy : Profit-taking pressure increases on the recent high flyers…
- While the FBM KLCI still managed to chalk up marginal gains yesterday, the broader market sentiment has
turned slightly more cautious, amid the constant profit-taking pressure due to the lack of positive surprises
from the Invest Malaysia Conference opened by the PM Najib Razak on Tuesday.
- In fact, the T+3 and T+4 selling pressure from recent high trading volume at above 1.0-1.25bn shares since
early last week could add pressure to the recent high flyers, which were mostly traded off high yesterday.
- Therefore, the local market may see higher risk of follow-through profit-taking activities going forward,
unless FBM KLCI manages to overtake Tuesday’s high of 1,323.70. Its next immediate hurdle is 1,334.34.
- Nevertheless, we remain confident that the benchmark will find firm supports near the 10-day SMA of 1,309
and the resistance-turned-support level at 1,300 soon.
- Indeed, our medium-term outlook on the FBM KLCI remains bullish, and we expect the index to resume its
bullish momentum towards the medium-term upside target at 1,390, once it clears off the weak holders
from the recent overbought environment.
Daily Technical Watch: DRB-Hicom – Failing to remove RM1.20 will mean a profit-taking pullback soon…
- 10-day SMA: RM1.059
- 40-day SMA: RM1.015
- Support: IS = RM1.05 S1 = RM0.95 S2 = RM0.82
- Resistance: IR = RM1.20 R1 = RM1.39 R2 = RM1.55
Bulletin Board
Important Dates
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Stock Ratings
Outperform = The stock return is expected to exceed the FBM KLCI benchmark by greater than five percentage points over the next 6-12 months.
Trading Buy = Short-term positive development on the stock that could lead to a re-rating in the share price and translate into an absolute return of 15% or more over a period of three months, but fundamentals are not
strong enough to warrant an Outperform call. It is generally for investors who are willing to take on higher risks.
Market Perform = The stock return is expected to be in line with the FBM KLCI benchmark (+/- five percentage points) over the next 6-12 months.
Underperform = The stock return is expected to underperform the FBM KLCI benchmark by more than five percentage points over the next 6-12 months.
Industry/Sector Ratings
Overweight = Industry expected to outperform the FBM KLCI benchmark, weighted by market capitalisation, over the next 6-12 months.
Neutral = Industry expected to perform in line with the FBM KLCI benchmark, weighted by market capitalisation, over the next 6-12 months.
Underweight = Industry expected to underperform the FBM KLCI benchmark, weighted by market capitalisation, over the next 6-12 months.
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