Real-world population calamities

in

seemingly empty environments?

( possible implications for us? )

2/1000ths of one percent

Imagine a real-world population of organisms surrounded by vast amounts of open-space in surroundings that remain 99.998% unoccupied and which, visuallyspeaking, appears to remain almost entirely empty

For the population in the above tiny white dot, the moment in time depicted here was already too-late

End of part two

One must read population articles and graphs CAREFULLY

Some authors and websites, for example, invite their readers to assume that it is permissible to present a graph of human population growth as an s-curve

One must examine such graphs CAREFULLY, however.

For if we do so, we will notice that some authors commonly do not BEGIN their graphs until some recent decade such as the 1950s or 1970s

bring them up to the present

and then extend them several decades into the future on the basis of their own hopes, wishes, guesstimates, and suppositions

We note, however, that in SCIENCE it is not generally permissible to OMIT 9,000 years of population data

in order to force-fit ones data into a more preferable theoretical outcome

Although U.N. medium-fertility projections suggest trajectories toward 10 or 11 billion by the end of this century

It is possible and disquieting that the real-world worldwide human population numbers that actually emerge could turn out to be

very much larger

than the contemplated medium-fertility U.N. estimates shown here

Unexpected advances in life-extension or unexpected declines in mortality or if worldwide fertility levels stall or turn out to be just

child per woman

higher than the U.N.s medium-fertility estimates

Six-fold life-extensions have already been achieved in laboratory organisms And an equivalent extension in humans would result in healthy, active 500-year-olds

Even tiny fractional such extensions in humans would toss current U.N. population projections right out the window

by the end of this century

We could find ourselves headed toward

(as shown in this graph)

billion

15.8

And since we are now beyond seven billion and may be headed toward 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, or 15.8 billion this century

and since each one of our billions is a truly enormous number (see appendix)

Some suggest that statistically-speaking, our rate of growth is slowing down.

There a potentially-calamitous untruth concealed in such assertions, however. Response 1: 1981 On a worldwide basis our population is growing larger at 80 million extra persons per year 2011 On a worldwide basis our population is growing larger at 83 million extra persons per year

Imagine that you are on a bus headed off a cliff at 80 km/hr. The driver, however, who is a statistician, seeks to reassure you by informing you that although the bus is now closer to the cliff and is now headed off the cliff at 83 km/hr, the RATE, he says, of increasingly heading off the cliff is slowing down and is on a trajectory that could result in eventual stabilization

Response 2: Back in 1981, Earths biospheric life-support machinery was being assaulted, damaged, and eradicated by roughly 4.5 billion persons supplemented by approximately 80 million extra persons per year Since then, our worldwide totals have grown to more than 7 billion and our assaults, damages, and eradications are now being amplified and supplemented by 83 million extra persons per year

Earths natural systems and life-support machinery might be forgiven, perhaps, for not considering that to be slowing down?

It is the fault of those silly natural systems, however, for never having taken a statistics course, isnt it?

Otherwise, if they were so smart, they might realize that all of the damage and eradications that they think they are experiencing are just temporary illusions?

Notice that these graphs are quintessential examples of J-curves (one of the most dangerous
types of graphs in the world)

and since earths planetary carrying capacity for a modern industrialized humanity is on the order of TWO billion or less

Key Ideas so far

There is a widely-held misperception within our societies that human population growth and overpopulation cannot be truly serious so long as vast amounts of open space appear to remain theoretically-available

Part two Key Ideas

Real-world examples of Climb-and-collapse in population systems Collapse can and does occur in environments that appear to be almost entirely empty (.. less than 2/1000ths of one percent ..)

Real-world examples of 99% - plus die-offs

A graph of human population growth over the past two centuries appears to be both more-pronounced and more extreme than those seen in either of the cited reindeer examples

Supporting mathematics is posted in appendices ONE AND TWO

Given the current demographic challenge that these numbers represent

(and with up to our 10th to 15th billions on-track to arrive by the end of this century)

One would hope that we are collectively smarter than a mindless population of one-celled dinoflagellates that routinely show themselves capable of calamity while occupying

less than 2/1000ths of 1% of the volume in which the population sample resides

Invoking sobriety, however, we may actually be following a trajectory that has a worrisome similarity to that of the dinoflagellates

because our own species, like the red-tide dinoflagellates of marine habitats, releases chemical wastes and toxins into our surroundings

Worse still, from at least one point of view, however, we may actually be on a trajectory that is worse than that of the dinoflagellates

and multiple orders of magnitude worse at that

for each dinoflagellate cell releases ONLY its metabolic and biological wastes into its surroundings

In our own case, however, we release not only our biological and metabolic wastes

but also an unprecedented daily avalanche of societal and industrial wastes that are worldwide in scope

and amplified by our ever-growing numbers and increasing industrialization

Reviewing Several Key Ideas

1 Dinoflagellate red-tides are quintessential examples of population calamities arising from the release of wastes 2 Dinoflagellate red-tide calamities, however, arise from their release of cellular and metabolic wastes into their surroundings 3 Because our own species also releases wastes into its surroundings, we may be following a trajectory that is provocatively similar to that of an outbreak of dinoflagellate red-tide

Reviewing Several Key Ideas

4 Except, of course, our own species supplements its biological and cellular wastes with a daily worldwide avalanche of industrial and societal wastes 5 (A behavior that no other animals on earth exhibit and has never previously happened in the entire history of the earth)

6 And lastly, while deadly outbreaks of dinoflagellate red-tide are localized events, our own population outbreak is a worldwide phenomenon and worldwide in its effects

Lastly, but not least, there are these two graphs of our demographics which are very much like J-curves on steroids

Policymakers, academia, and the worlds rising generations of Under-20s should accord emergency-scale attention to these numbers

First, five additional billions in less than one human lifetime since 1930

with the potential arrivals of billions numbers 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, and 15 (and 800 million more after that) due by the end of this century

on a planet whose biospheric machinery was already being damaged at levels of five billion and six billion in 1987 and 1999 and whose planetary carrying capacity for a modern, industrialized humanity is on the order of two billion or less

also remembering the levels of

sheer physical damage and eradication

that we inflict all around the world

We also suggest the PowerPoint shown below