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Critical Challenges for the Philippines

in the Areas of Environment and


Natural Resources

GRACIANO P. YUMUL, JR., D.SC.


DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE
AND TECHNOLOGY
OUTLINE

 Natural hazards and impacts


 ENSO: event and responses
 Realities and recognitions
 Future?

© Yumul, 2010
OUTLINE

Natural hazards
and impacts
 ENSO: event and responses
 Realities and recognitions
 Future?

© Yumul, 2010
NATURAL AND HUMAN-INDUCED
DISASTERS

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ICE SHEET DYNAMIC

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COMPARISON

Tropical cyclones
– very visible, dramatic devastation

El Niño Southern Oscillation


– creeping but dramatic devastation

© Yumul, 2010
OUTLINE

 Natural hazards and impacts

ENSO: event and


responses
 Realities and recognitions
 Future?

© Yumul, 2010
‘09-`10 ENSO

July 2009 – SSTs >1°C above average


December 2009 – Niño 3.4 index values greater than +1.8°C
Conditions will persist for several months http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/
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(Tootle et al., 2009)

’09-’10 ENSO similar to ’82-’83, ’86-’87 and ‘02-’03 ENSO.


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Interrelationship among droughts

© Yumul, 2010 (Source: National Drought Mitigation Center, University of


1997-1998 vs 2009-2010
ENSO

‘97 – ‘98 ‘09 – ‘10


Temperature 2.5C 1.5C
Classification Severe Moderate
ENSO Type East Pacific East Pacific
Power Outages None Extensive
Population 73M 98M

© Yumul, 2010
OUTLINE

 Natural hazards and impacts


 ENSO: event and responses

Realities and
recognitions
 Future?

© Yumul, 2010
WHAT WE HAVE LEARNED

 Disconnect between the National


Government and Local Government units
 Varying levels of awareness of climate
change and related issues
 Different degrees of preparedness
 Disconcerted or duplicated efforts
 Uncertainty in some stakeholders as to
their role
© Yumul, 2010
WHAT WE HAVE LEARNED

 Adaptation too abstract; Motherhood


statements
 Who defines danger?: External (expert) or
internal (people)
 What happens if projections do not come
true?
 Mal-adaptation is a distinct reality
 Sugarcane is us!
© Yumul, 2010
WHAT WE HAVE LEARNED

 Adaptation not only an ecological,


economic and technological issue

 Other factors matter: Ethics, Risks,


Knowledge, Culture, Nationalism

 Governance, poverty alleviation, gender,


sustainability issues critical
© Yumul, 2010
NUMBERS TO REMEMBER

 298
 212
 3
 4
 8
 20
 98
© Yumul, 2010
NUMBERS TO REMEMBER
 PhP298 billion deficit
 Php212 billion for reconstruction
 3% of the GDP
 US$4 billion
 PhP8 billion if ENSO is mild
 PhP20 billion if ENSO is severe
 98 million Filipinos

© Yumul, 2010
OUTLINE

 Natural hazards and impacts


 ENSO: event and responses
 Realities and recognitions

Future?

© Yumul, 2010
© Yumul, 2010
THE FUTURE

Issues : Climate change, DRM, CCA,


Sectors, Environment
People: Defined role; Competitiveness;
Innovativeness
Resources: Finance, Logistics, Education,
Policies
FOURTH FACTOR?

© Yumul, 2010
THE FUTURE
FOURTH FACTOR?

MAKE IT HAPPEN: Walk the Talk!!!


- Catch up mode
- Pride in being a Filipino
- Comparative advantage

© Yumul, 2010

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