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Basic Concepts of Hypothesis Testing (1)

Basic Concepts of Hypothesis Testing (1)

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Basic Concepts of Hypothesis TestingIntroduction
A hypothesis is a statement or a tentative theory that may or may not be true, but is initially assumed to be true until new evidence suggests otherwise. It may be proposedfrom a preliminary observation, a guess or based from previous experiences.In hypothesis testing problem, the researcher has in mind a specific notion concerning the characteristics of the population under study before the sample data aregathered. Then investigate the sample information to examine how consistent the data with the hypothesis in questioned. If the sample information deviate much from the statedhypothesis, then researcher tend to disbelieved and reject the proposed statement. Although the proposed statement may be true, it is expected that any single sample (or samples)will differ slightly from the true characteristic of the population and other will not, because of the sampling variation, have the same exact value as the population parameter. Hence,differences between the sample information and the population under study might be due chance. The procedure of statistical test will provide the basis in deciding whether differencesbetween the sample observation and the hypothesized value could be due to sampling variation alone, or are so large enough as to make the proposed statement untenable.
Types of Hypothesis
Null hypothesis – the null hypothesis is denoted by Ho, it is the hypothesis of “no difference” and usually formulated for the purpose of being rejected.Alternative hypothesis – the alternative hypothesis is denoted by Ha or H1. This is the hypothesis that contradicts the hull hypothesis. If the null hypothesis is rejected, thealternative is being supported. The alternative hypothesis is the operational statement of the experimenter’s research hypothesis.
Types of Errors
 Type I error – usually committed if the Ho is rejected when the Ho is true
 Type II error – usually committed if the Ho is accepted when the Ho is falseIn actual situation a given table below summarizes the kind of action and the type of error when one accepts or rejects a hypothesis.
Status of Hypothesis Accept Ho Reject Ho
Ho is True Correct Decision Type I errorHo is False Type II error Correct Decision
One-sided and Two-sided TestDirectional/Nondirectional Test
In one-sided test the Ha specifies that the unknown population parameter is entirely above or entirely below the specified value of the Ho. It is called one-tailed or a directionaltest. While the two- sided test, the Ha specifies that the unknown population parameter can lie on either side of the value specified by Ho. It is called two-tailed ornondirectional test. The following are classified as one-tailed testHo : µ = 100 Ha : µ < 100Ho : µ = 100 Ha : µ > 100 The Ha is either entirely below 100 or entirely above 100 The following are classified as two-tailed testHo : µ = 100 Ha : µ 100Ho : µ1 = µ2 Ha : (µ1 - µ2) 0 The Ha can fall in either side of the Ho
Note : For a directional test the inequality symbol of the Ha is less than (<) or greater than (>) while a non-directional test the symbol is not equal ( ‡ ).Testing Level of Significance
 The probability of committing type I error is called the level of significance or margin of error of the test and it is denoted by
α
(alpha), and one minus the level of significance is calledconfidence level. The probability of committing type II error is denoted by ß, and (1– ß) is called the power of the test. This will indicate the ability of the test statistics to determine correctly that the Hois false, hence it should be rejected.Rather compute the actual chance of committing type I error, the researcher conventionally establish the level of significance before hand by considering the consequences of committing type I error. There are 2 most commonly used level of significance 0.05 and 0.01. At 0.05 level, the researcher is willing to accept a 5% chance of being wrong decisionwhen Ho is rejected. At 0.01 level, the researcher is willing to accept a 1% chance of being wrong when Ho is rejected.If Ho is rejected at 0.05 level, then it is usually labeled as "significant”, otherwise the result is labeled “not significant”. If Ho is rejected at 0.01 level, then the result is labeled “Highlysignificant”.For a fixed sample size n, decreasing one type of error would mean increasing the other type of error. The only way to decrease both type of errors simultaneously is by increasing thesample size.
The Critical Region
 The level of significance determines which values would be considered improbable or probable if the hypothesis were true. Thus, the range of possible values (sampling distribution) isdivided into two sections or regions, the acceptance region (the probable values) and the rejection region (improbable values). The size of both region is completely specified by thelevel of significance. The acceptance region is equal to (1 –
α
) and the critical region or the rejection region is equal to
α
. The experimenter will decide to reject the null hypothesisonly if the probability of observing of such an observed value is equal to or less than
α
. The size of the critical region is being determined by
α
, in general the location of the critical region is determined by the nature of the alternative hypothesis. The difference in thelocation of the critical region differentiates the statistical hypothesis into one-tailed or two-tailed test.Critical region is the set of all values of the test statistics that would cause to reject the null hypothesis.
Basic Steps in Hypothesis Testing
 The following steps should be properly observed so as to make sure that the thinking is logical.1. State the Ho and Ha, decide what data to collect and under what conditions2. Specify the level of significance µ and the sample size n3. Find the sampling distribution of the test statistics under the assumption that Ho is true4. Establish the critical region for the test statistics5. Computation of the test statistics, for a sample size n6. Decision.
Z-test Statistics
Suppose that X1, X2, . . . Xn are sample observations from a normal populations with unknown mean and known variance. The appropriate test statistics in comparing the samplemean and the population iswhich is normally distributed with mean 0 and variance 1.
t-test Statistics
 
 The population variance is generally unknown and is estimated by the variance of the random samples. The sampling variability of the sample variance may be affected if the samplesize is small (n less than or equal to 30). Hence, the unavailability of the population variance must take into consideration and to be estimated by the sample variance.If the given observations X1, X2, . . ., Xn is a random sample from a normal distribution, but the population variance is unknown, then the test statisticshas a t-distribution with (n-1) degrees of freedom.A t-distribution is symmetric probability distribution centered at zero, and looks similar but more variable (spread out) than the normal distribution. The t-distribution becomesmore and more similar with the normal distribution as the number of degree of freedom increases.
Sample Problems
1. A study shows that the average score of the applicants who took the entrance examination was 45 with a standard deviation of 5.15. Is there a reason to believe that the presentexaminees is better than the previous results if a random sample of 36 applicants showed an average score of 47.34, use 0.01 level of significance.
ANSWER
to Sample Problem 11. Ho : µ = 45Ha : µ > 452.
α
= 0.01, n = 363. Test Statistics : Z-test4. Critical Region : Reject the Ho if Zc > 2.335. Computations:(47.36 – 45) V36Zc = ———————— = 2.755.156. Decision: Since Zc > 2.33, therefore reject the Ho hypothesis and conclude that the new batch of applicants is better than the previous one.2. A high school principal claims that the average performance of his graduating class in math was 83. To test this claim, 25 students were randomly selected from the recentgraduating class with the following results: 87, 85, 76, 83, 78, 90, 89, 85, 82, 77, 79, 76, 86, 83, 93, 88, 84, 76, 79, 85, 82, 81, 85, 84, 80. Test the principal's claimusing 0.05 level of significance.
ANSWER to Sample Problem 2
1. Ho : µ = 83 Ha : µ 832.
α
= 0.05, n = 253. Test Statistics : t-test4. Critical Region : Reject the Ho if tc > 2.0645. Computations: X = 82.92 S = 4.6 n = 25 __ (82.92– 83) V25tc = ———————— = 2.754.66. Decision: Since tc < 2.064, therefore accept the Ho hypothesis and conclude that the claim of the principal is valid and the performance of new graduating class in Math is notsignificantly different from the previous graduates.
Comparing Two Dependent Samples
In comparing two dependent samples, the data are considered as a paired values. This is a result of data being obtained from a certain “before and after” studies, a result from a pairsof observation from two different populations, or a result from matching two subjects of similar characteristics to form a matched pairs. This pairs of observations are compared directlyto one another by using their observed differences. The purpose of using correlated or dependent samples is to eliminate or remove the effect of uncontrolled factors which are not part but might influence the outcome of the study.Matched pairs or pairing of observations will assure the researcher that the observed differences of the two samples was really due to the influences of the factors under study.
Test Statistics
 The difference between two populations when dependent or correlated samples was used is almost the same with the t-test with singles samples in the previous module. The onlydifference is that in dependent samples we will be dealing with the difference of two observed values rather than the original values.
Sample Problem/s
1. The following data represent the weights (in lbs.) of 10 obese participants before and after undergoing a two-weeks weight reducing training program.Participants12345678910Before275250235212215263289258215249After250215218198200245260250202230 Test the hypothesis that the mean weight loss of obese participants after the training program is 10 lbs. against the alternative that the loss weight is greater than 10 lbs. Use 0.01level of significance.2. A researcher wishes to determine if there is systematic difference between the readings of the two digital weighing scales. The following data were obtained:Sample No.12345678Scale A50.082.553.885.475.463.535.825.3Scale B49.982.753.885.375.463.735.724.9Use 0.05 level of significance to test whether there is no significant difference between the readings of the two scales. (the weights are express in grams).
Comparing Two Independent Samples
Sometimes it is impossible to design a study or an experiment which utilizes a matched or related samples in comparing two populations. Because it is difficult to look for thesubjects or units with more or less the same characteristics before the intervention or application of treatments. The researcher may use the two independent samples by randomlyselecting the samples from the two populations or by randomly assigning the subjects or units to the different groups or treatments. The samples size in an independent populationneed not necessarily be of the same size.
 
 The parametric tests for analyzing data from two independent samples are the z-test and t-test. These test statistics assumes that the data in both samples are normally distributedand are usually in an interval scale of measurement.
Z-test Statistics
Suppose that the observations X1, X2, ..., Xn1 and Y1, Y2, . . . , Yn2 are random samples from two independent populations. To test the hypothesis that the two population means areequal. Then the appropriate test statistics is the Z-test. The formula of the test statistics is given bywhich is normally distributed with mean 0 and variance 1.However, if the population variances are unknown but the sample sizes are assumed to be large. The unknown population variances can be estimated by their corresponding samplevariances. Hence the Z-test statistics is given by
t-test Statistics Equal Variance
Hypothesis testing about the differences of means between two independent populations will involved the t-distribution and the t-test statistics. When the two samples are independent,and the two independent populations are normally distributed and the population variances are unknown but assumed to be equal. The test statisticshas a t-distribution with (n-2) degrees of freedom.
Sample Problems
1. A sample study was made by the Office of Student Affairs of the weekly allowances of the student of a certain university. If 60 students in the main campus averaged 250.00 pesoswith a standard deviation of 15.75, while 40 off-campus students averaged 263.65 with a standard deviation of 17.30, test at 0.05 level of significance whether the differencebetween these two sample means is significance.
Answer
1. Ho : μ1 = μ2 Ha : μ1 μ22.
α
= 0.05, n1 = 60 n2 = 403. Test Statistics : Z-test4. Critical Region : Reject the Ho if IZcI > 1.965. Computations: x1 = 250.00 S1 = 15.75 x2 = 263.65 S2 = 17.32 Zc = - 4.006. Decision: Since IZcI >1.96, therefore reject the Ho hypothesis and conclude that the two groups of students have different Allowances2. A classroom teacher wishes to compare the performance of students in statistics using two methods of teaching. Two independent samples of sizes 15 and 10 were randomlyselected. The following data have been obtained:Method A85837678828186757783Method B857883908987848379827684897887Is there a significant difference between the performance of students in the two methods of teaching statistics? Use 0.05 level of significance.
ANSWER
1. Ho : μ1 = μ2 Ha : μ1 μ22.
α
= 0.05, n1 = 10 n2 = 153. Test Statistics : t-test (independent samples)4. Critical Region : Reject the Ho if I tcI > 2.0695. Computations: x1 = 80.60 S1 = 3.86 x2 = 83.60 S2 = 4.29 tc = -1.753

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