Lessons from recent

Philippine disasters

Alfredo Mahar Francisco A. Lagmay

National Institute of Geological Sciences, University of the
Philippines

U.P. Academic Forum on Climate Change Photo from Boston.com

Dec 2005 Typhoon Quedon
Mindoro Flooding US$ 0.5 million
Feb. 17, 2006 Guinsaugon landslide 1126 dead US$ 2.203 million
Guinsaugon
Population = 1,857
Nov. 30, 2006 Typhoon Durian 1399 dead US$ 66.4 million
 Basud

Padang

Guinobatan

Bongga
Camalig
Daraga
June 20, 2008 Typhoon Fenshen 644 dead US$ 135 million
Advanced technologies needed for
disaster mitigation

1. Timely and accurate prediction of rainfall

(TRMM and automated rain/river
gauges)
2. Accurate Topography
(Light Detection and Ranging)
 Tropical Rainfall Mapping Mission
• Armed with both a passive microwave
sensor and a space-borne precipitation
radar
• The primary objective of the Tropical
Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite (better
known as TRMM) is to measure rainfall
from space.
NASA SATELLITE GREATLY IMPROVES
ACCURACY OF TROPICAL RAINFALL
FORECASTING
NASA, Jan 12, 2000 by David E. Steitz, Allen Kenitzer, Stephanie Kenitzer

New research shows that adding rainfall

data from NASA's Tropical Rainfall
Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and
other meteorological satellites to forecast
models can more than triple the accuracy
of short-term rainfall forecasts.
These model properties are then used to
predict the rainfall for three days into the
future, with remarkable success.
 TRMM uses
• Alternative and supplement to ground-
based observations for cost-effective flood
prediction in under-gauged regions
• NASA Applied Science Program in
partnership with USAID and African-
RCMRD to implement an operational
water-hazard warning system
• To build disaster management capacity
Latest 3 Hourly Global Rainfall
Latest Week of Global Rainfall
Accumulation
Latest hurricanes and typhoons
observed by the TRMM satellite.
 Telemetric rain gauge data sent
directly to NASA ground validation
team via the internet

Designs of UP (CP David)

and Ateneo (MO)

To be put in cell phone

towers and churches.

+ project rain gauge

 Hazard map scales
National Scale
• 1:50,000-1:100,000
• Accuracy is low -
Whole river basin
• Broad scale planning for major
emergencies
• Members of public are
interested in flood risk that
applies to them
Local scale
• 1:5,000 to 1:25,000
• Accuracy is high - Cadastral
level; Lidar
• Planning of localised
emergency response (i.e.
evacuation and access routes,
road closures)
• Public awareness
 Accurate local level,
high resolution
hazard maps is a
key element to effective
disaster preparedness!
 2m Resolution
LIDAR DSM

Al Duncan, Geomatic Group, UK

 1m Resolution
LIDAR DSM

Al Duncan, Geomatic Group, UK

 50cm Resolution
LIDAR DSM

Al Duncan, Geomatic Group, UK

 25cm Resolution
LIDAR DSM

Al Duncan, Geomatic Group, UK

Al Duncan, Geomatic Group, UK
Al Duncan, Geomatic Group, UK
 Mobile
Terrestrial
LIDAR

Optech Lynx™
Mobile Mapper

Al Duncan, Geomatic Group, UK

Al Duncan, Geomatic Group, UK
 United Kingdom Philippines

Al Duncan, Geomatic Group, UK

 Flood risk model, 48 hour event

(Model type = 2D, Tuflow model, 1m resolution LIDAR data used)

Al Duncan, Geomatic Group, UK Integrated spatial data

 Modelling Flood Depth

Al Duncan, Geomatic Group, UK

 Modelling Flood Velocity

Al Duncan, Geomatic Group, UK

Scenario 6: Fluvial Flood Model – 7 Return Periods

Viewpoint A
X = 542290
Y = 108900
Z = 400m
Direction 346
© Crown Copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2009.

Integrated spatial data

Scenario 2: Fluvial 1 in 2 year, Tidal 1 in 200 year, Plus Climate Change

Viewpoint A
X = 542290
Y = 108900
Z = 400m
Direction 346
© Crown Copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2009.

Integrated spatial data

Scenario 1: Fluvial 1 in 2 year, Tidal 1 in 200 year

Viewpoint A
X = 542290
Y = 108900
Z = 400m
Direction 346
© Crown Copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2009.

Integrated spatial data

Scenario 3: Fluvial 1 in 100 year, MHWS Tide

Viewpoint A
X = 542290
Y = 108900
Z = 400m
Direction 346
© Crown Copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2009.

Integrated spatial data

Scenario 4: Fluvial 1 in 100 year, MHWS Tide, Plus Climate Change

Viewpoint A
X = 542290
Y = 108900
Z = 400m
Direction 346
© Crown Copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2009.

Integrated spatial data

Scenario 5: Flood Zones Map – 1 in 1,000 year modelled flood

Viewpoint A
X = 542290
Y = 108900
Z = 400m
Direction 346
© Crown Copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2009.

Integrated spatial data

GIS enabled website – OS Topographic Map
GIS enabled website – Aerial Photography
GIS enabled website – Historic Flood Map
GIS enabled website – Modelled Flood Map
 Investing in knowledge
• Space-based radar, automated rain/river
gauge systems and LIDAR are all readily
available.
• Any serious hazard mitigation program
would have to capitalize on these
technologies.