Conducted by the

University of New Hampshire

Survey Center
Interviews with 837 adults in New Hampshire were conducted by land
line and cellular telephone before the Iowa Caucuses (January 29February 1, 2016) and with 556 adults after the Iowa caucuses
(February 2-February 4, 2016 at 3PM).
The pre-caucus sample includes 362 respondents who say they plan to
vote in the Republican presidential primary and 333 respondents who
say they plan to vote in the Democratic presidential primary. The
margin of sampling error for results based on Republican primary
voters is plus or minus 5.2 percentage points and for results based on
Democratic primary voters is plus or minus 5.4 percentage points.
The post-caucus sample includes 209 respondents who say they plan to
vote in the Republican presidential primary and 228 respondents who
say they plan to vote in the Democratic presidential primary. The
margin of sampling error for results based on Republican primary
voters is plus or minus 6.8 percentage points and for results based on
Democratic primary voters is plus or minus 6.5 percentage points.

EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE:

Thursday, Feburary 4 at 5:00 p.m.

CNN/WMUR/UNH Tracking Poll

-1-

January/February, 2016

1.

(UNDECLARED / INDEPENDENT LIKELY VOTERS ONLY) "Which Presidential primary

election do you think you will vote in ... the Republican Primary or the Democratic Primary?"
PROBE: As of RIGHT NOW, which primary do you think you will vote in?

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
UNDECIDED

CNN/WMUR/UNH Tracking Poll

Dec.
2015
48%
38%
14%

-2-

Jan.
13-18
44%
48%
8%

Jan.
27-30
47%
42%
11%

Jan 29Feb 1
43%
45%
12%

Feb 2Feb 4
46%
44%
10%

January/February, 2016

2.

(REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY:) Have you definitely decided who you will vote
for in the New Hampshire primary are you leaning toward someone or have you
considered some candidates but are still trying to decide?
June
2015
DEFINITELY DECIDED
8%
LEANING TOWARD SOMEONE 17%
STILL TRYING TO DECIDE
75%

3.

Sept
2015
13%
28%
59%

Dec
2015
18%
26%
56%

Jan
13-18
31%
26%
43%

Jan.
27-30
39%
24%
37%

Jan 29Feb 1
36%
23%
41%

Feb 2Feb 4
41%
25%
34%

(REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY:) "Im going to read you the names of the
candidates who are running for the Republican nomination. If the Republican primary for
president were held today, which of the following would you support for the Republican
nomination Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim
Gilmore John Kasich Marco Rubio Donald Trump or someone else?" ROTATE
CANDIDATES

DONALD TRUMP
MARCO RUBIO
TED CRUZ
JOHN KASICH
JEB BUSH
CHRIS CHRISTIE
CARLY FIORINA
BEN CARSON
JIM GILMORE
BOB EHRLICH
MARK EVERSON
LINDSEY GRAHAM
MIKE HUCKABEE*
BOBBY JINDAL
PETER KING
GEORGE PATAKI
RAND PAUL*
RICK PERRY
RICK SANTORUM*
SCOTT WALKER
SOMEONE ELSE SPECIFY
DK / NOT SURE

June
2015
11%
6%
3%
2%
16%
5%
6%
5%
0%
0%
--1%
2%
*
0%
1%
9%
4%
0%
8%
1%
21%

Sept.
2015
26%
9%
5%
7%
7%
5%
16%
8%
1%
--0%
1%
*
0%
--*
3%
--*
*
*
11%

Dec.
2015
32%
14%
6%
7%
8%
9%
5%
5%
*
----1%
1%
----0%
2%
--*
--0%
9%

Jan.
13-18
34%
10%
14%
6%
10%
6%
4%
3%
*
---1%
---6%
-0%
-*
6%

Jan
27-30
30%
11%
12%
9%
6%
8%
4%
3%
0%
---1%
---3%
-0%
-3%
10%

Jan 29Feb 1
29%
11%
12%
10%
9%
9%
4%
2%
0%
---1%
---4%
-0%
-2%
9%

Feb 2Feb 4
29%
18%
13%
12%
10%
4%
4%
2%
0%
-----------2%
8%

*Huckabee was removed on 2/1 and Paul and Santorum were removed on 2/3 after dropping out of the
race.

CNN/WMUR/UNH Tracking Poll

-3-

January/February, 2016

4.

(REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY:) Which of the candidates who are running for
the Republican nomination would you NOT vote for under any circumstance?

DONALD TRUMP
TED CRUZ
JEB BUSH
MARCO RUBIO
BEN CARSON
CHRIS CHRISTIE
JIM GILMORE
CARLY FIORINA
JOHN KASICH
BOB EHRLICH
MARK EVERSON
LINDSEY GRAHAM
MIKE HUCKABEE
BOBBY JINDAL
PETER KING
GEORGE PATAKI
RAND PAUL
RICK PERRY
RICK SANTORUM
SCOTT WALKER
SOMEONE ELSE SPECIFY
NONE / ALL ARE OK
DK / NOT SURE

CNN/WMUR/UNH Tracking Poll

June
2015
23%
4%
10%
2%
0%
10%
0%
*
*
1%
--2%
3%
2%
1%
2%
3%
1%
2%
2%
1%
13%
19%

Sept
2015
25%
3%
11%
0%
1%
5%
1%
1%
*
--1%
4%
8%
1%
--2%
10%
--2%
*
0%
10%
15%

-4-

Dec
2015
26%
3%
11%
1%
5%
6%
2%
4%
2%
----3%
4%
----2%
7%
--3%
--1%
11%
9%

Jan.
13-18
30%
4%
18%
4%
2%
9%
3%
4%
2%
---2%
---5%
-1%
-*
10%
6%

Jan.
27-30
35%
9%
12%
3%
2%
3%
1%
2%
2%
---1%
---4%
-1%
-1%
14%
9%

Jan 29- Feb 2Feb 1 Feb 4

31% 37%
10% 13%
9%
7%
3%
5%
3%
3%
3%
3%
1%
3%
2%
2%
4%
1%
------1%
-------6%
---2%
---1%
1%
15% 13%
10% 11%

January/February, 2016

5.

(REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY:) Regardless of who you are voting for, which
candidate do you think is most likely to win the New Hampshire Republican primary?

DONALD TRUMP
TED CRUZ
MARCO RUBIO
JEB BUSH
CARLY FIORINA
JOHN KASICH
BEN CARSON
CHRIS CHRISTIE
JIM GILMORE
MARK EVERSON
LINDSEY GRAHAM
MIKE HUCKABEE
BOBBY JINDAL
GEORGE PATAKI
RAND PAUL
RICK SANTORUM
SCOTT WALKER
SOMEONE ELSE SPECIFY
DK / NOT SURE

CNN/WMUR/UNH Tracking Poll

Sept
2015
40%
*
5%
12%
8%
3%
4%
2%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
1%
1%
*
0%
24%

Dec.
2015
59%
2%
6%
4%
1%
1%
1%
6%
0%
--0%
*
--0%
1%
0%
--0%
20%

-5-

Jan.
27-30
66%
6%
2%
2%
*
1%
1%
1%
0%
--0%
--1%
0%
-1%
19%

Jan 29- Feb 2Feb 1 Feb 4

70% 61%
3%
11%
4%
9%
2%
1%
*
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
1%
0%
0%
0%
----0%
-----1%
-0%
---2%
*
17% 17%

January/February, 2016