3Center for American Progress | American Fuel
Te vehicles mos suied or naural gas conversion are medium- and heavy-duy rucks,and ransi and school buses. Te EIA esimaes ha here were a oal o 41,000 vehicles ueled by compressed naural gas on he road in 2007, and 2,600 vehicles ueled by lique-ed naural gas. Te EPA noes ha hese naural gas vehicles emiup o 25 percen less carbon dioxide polluion han heir diesel or gasoline counerpars.
Vehicle classes most appropriate for significant conversion to natural gas
Vehicle class2009Projected 2035
Number(all fueltypes)Oil consump-tion (barrels of oil per day)Number(all fueltypes)Oil consumptionunder business asusual scenario (barrelsof oil per day)Oil consumption withincreased natural gasvehicles (barrels of oil per day)Net oil savings underincreased naturalgas vehicles (barrelsof oil per day)*Heavy-duty trucks4,806,6211,625,0006,448,4892,230,0001,235,0001,010,000Medium-duty trucks3,904,902364,0008,544,441779,000665,000139,000Transit buses**67,50240,00075,42423,000***22,00045,000School buses**693,75257,000808,67876,00042,00036,000Total1,230,000
Sources: Energy Inormation Agency, Annual Energy Outlook 2010, Supplemental Tables 46 and67;Federal Highway Administration,Highway Statistics 2008;
American Public Transport Association,2009 Public Transportation Fact Book, Appendix A, Table 17*Business as usual scenario already includes some natural gas vehicle penetration, but total oil savings are calculated with reerence to total energy used by eachvehicle class.**See methodology note six or details on how we estimated the number o transit and school buses.***The EIA already orecasts a signifcant decrease in oil consumption or transit buses due to a conversion to natural gas.
Replacing 3.5 million o hese heavy vehicles wih naural gas vehicles by 2035 wouldsave more han 1.2 million barrels o oil per day compared o business as usual, whichis more han we impored rom eiher VenezuelaorSaudi Arabiain 2009. Tis would
be accomplished primarily by replacing aging radiional vehicles wih new naural gas vehicles over ime, bu we also assume a small number o reros o con- ver exising vehicles o naural gas. We projec, based on exising ee urnover raes, ha nearly hal o allheavy rucks would be powered by naural gas. Naural gas would also uelone-fh o medium rucks, nearly hal o all school buses, and wo-hirdso ransi buses.Naural gas may be used as a ransporaion uel in eiher o wo orms:compressed naural gas or liqueed naural gas. CNG is currenly he more widely available orm o naural gas and is already being successully used inshor-range, cenrally ueled vehicles such asreuse rucks, concree mixers,sraigh rucks, and school buses. Bu he American rucking Associaionhas concluded ha CNG is an impracical uel or long-disance reighrucks because is lower energy densiy limis vehicle range and necessiaesmore requen ll-ups.
2 0 1 1 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 5 2 0 2 7 2 0 2 9 2 0 3 1 2 0 3 3 2 0 3 5
M i l l i o n s o f b a r r e l s p e r d a y
Potential oil displacement from naturalgas trucks and buses
Sources: Energy Inormation Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2010,Supplementary Tables 46 and 67, available at: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oia/aeo/ supplement/sup_tran.xls#set3.1118a!C170 and http://www.eia.doe.gov/oia/ aeo/supplement/sup_tran.xls#set3.1118a!C2275