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DCDC Global Strategic Trends - Out to 2040

DCDC Global Strategic Trends - Out to 2040



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Published by Silendo

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Categories:Types, Research
Published by: Silendo on Apr 14, 2010
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial


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 Global Strategic Trends is a comprehensive view of the future produced by a researchteam at the Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC). This edition of GlobalStrategic Trends is benchmarked at 12 January 2010.
Conditions of Release
The findings contained in Global Strategic Trends are DCDC’s and the document does notrepresent an official position of Her Majesty’s Government or the Ministry of Defence(MOD). The information is, however, Crown Copyright.
Departmental Direction
Global Strategic Trends is an examination of the strategic context that faces defence andthe challenges and opportunities it provides for the MOD. MOD direction on the DCDCStrategic Trends Programme stresses the requirement for a comprehensive approach.DCDC’s Strategic Trends Programme aims to provide a detailed analysis of the futurestrategic context for defence out to 2040. This will be an essential input into policy andconcept development. Major outputs include:
Trends based analysis of the future strategic context;
Analysis of alternative futures, key risks and shocks, including an assessment of their probability, frequency and magnitude;
Identification of how shocks might impact on the future strategic context;
Identification of the broad defence and security implications of this analysis.Building on previous editions of Global Strategic Trends, the analysis adopts acomprehensive approach to the key drivers and deduces the salient themes out to 2040.In compiling the analysis, the Strategic Trends Programme makes use of a broad anddiverse evidence base.
Foreword by the Assistant Chief of the Defence Staff(Development, Concepts and Doctrine) – Major General PaulNewton CBE
The DCDC Strategic Trends Programme provides acomprehensive analysis of the future strategic contextout to 2040. The work is based on researchconducted at DCDC in conjunction with subject matterexperts across a range of disciplines. These expertscome from a multitude of backgrounds, includinggovernment and academia. It is a global view of futuretrends and DCDC has conducted workshops andconsultations in Europe, the Middle East, Asia, Africaand North America to gain an internationalperspective.The document is a contribution to a growing body ofknowledge and is aimed at the defence community. Itseeks to build on previous editions of Global StrategicTrends with a more accessible format. It has a greaterfocus on defence and security issues and expands onother subjects, including resources, and the resurgence of ideology. From acomprehensive review of trends, it draws out 3 key themes: how we will
adapt to thereality of a shifting climate and breakneck technological innovation (see the
Human Environment 
); the dominance of the West in international affairs will fade and globalpower
will become more evenly distributed between the West and the rising powers inAsia (see the
Dynamics of Global Power 
); and finally, as society and the distribution ofglobal power changes, the challenges to defence and security will
increase (see
Evolving Defence and Security Challenges 
). It draws lessons from contemporary events toconclude that globalisation is a more volatile process than previously envisaged and thatthis volatility may leave globalised systems more vulnerable to strategic shock andsystemic failure. It also draws out high level global defence and security implications.Previous editions of Global Strategic Trends have been accused of taking a pessimisticview of the future. However, in this edition, we see the opportunities as well as challengesand believe that we provide a realistic assessment. The period out to 2040 will
be a timeof transition, which is likely
to be characterised by instability, both in the relations betweenstates, and in the relations between groups within states. This period of transition will notoccur in a linear fashion; as climate change, global inequality, population growth, resourcescarcity and the shift of power from west to east will transform the strategic context.These will be persistent, complex challenges.However, it is the manner in which states, their leaders and their populations react tothese challenges that will define the era. If they choose to implement collective responsesthen the challenges are likely to be overcome, and progress and development will follow.However, if they miscalculate under pressure, are constrained by misunderstanding, or failto seize opportunities, the result is likely to be instability, tension and ultimately conflict.
Maj Gen P R Newton CBE

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