Testing of Hypothesis

Prof GRC Nair

 What is a Hypothesis?
• A hypothesis is a statement or claim /
assumption /assertion, which is put to test.
It is neither proved nor provable.

 The accused is innocent,Earth is round, Vitamin C

prevents cold, Fiesta gives 20 km per liter,  = 100 etc.
• Every hypothesis implies its contradiction or alternative.

 The accused is guilty, Earth is flat, Vitamin C has no

effect on cold, Fiesta gives < 20 km only, etc

• Testing is done on evidence from sample data.

 Statistical Hypothesis Testing
• A Null Hypothesis, denoted by H0, may be an assertion.
This is the assertion we hold to be true until we have
sufficient statistical evidence to conclude otherwise.
 H0:  = 100
• The Alternative Hypothesis, denoted by H1, is the
assertion of situation not covered by the Null Hypothesis.
 H1: 100 or H 1 < 100 or H1 > 100

• H0 and H1 are:
 Mutually exclusive
– Only one can be true.
 Collectively Exhaustive
– Together they cover all possibilities, so one or the
other must be true.
 Decision-Making

A Hypothesis is either true or false, and we

may reject it or we may fail to reject it on the
basis of information in the test.
• One hypothesis is maintained to be true
until a decision is made to reject it as false:

 Guilt is established “beyond reasonable

doubt”.
 The alternative is highly improbable.
Hypothesis about other Parameters

• Hypotheses about other parameters such as

population proportions and and population
variances are also possible. For example

 H0: p 40%
 H1: p < 40%

 H0: s2  50
 H1: s2 > 50
The Null Hypothesis, H0

• The Null Hypothesis:

 Often represents the status quo
situation or an existing belief.
 Is maintained, or held to be true, until
a test leads to its rejection in favor of
the Alternative Hypothesis.
 Is rejected as false or not rejected
(continuing to take it as true) on the
basis of a test statistic.
statistic
The Concepts of Hypothesis Testing

• A test statistic is a sample statistic

computed from sample data. The value of the
test statistic is used to decide whether to
reject the null hypothesis or not .
• The decision rule of a statistical hypothesis
test is a rule that specifies the conditions
under which the Null Hypothesis may be
rejected.

Consider H0:  = 100. We may have a decision rule that

says: “Reject H0 if the sample mean is less than 95 or
more than 105.”
In a courtroom we may say: “The accused is innocent
until proven guilty beyond a reasonable doubt.”
 Possible Decisions

• There are two possible states of nature:

H0 is true
H0 is false

• There are two possible decisions:

 Reject H0 ie takes H0 as false.
 Fail to reject H0 ie takes H0 as true.
 Correct Decisions

• A decision to reject or not to reject H0 may be:

 Correct
A true hypothesis may not be rejected
» eg: An innocent defendant may be acquitted
 A false hypothesis may be rejected
» eg: A guilty defendant may be convicted

• A decision may be correct in two ways:

 Fail to reject a true H0
 Reject a false H0
 Incorrect Decisions - Errors

A decision to reject or not to reject H0 may be:

Incorrect
A true hypothesis may be rejected
» eg: An innocent defendant may be convicted
A false hypothesis may not be rejected
» eg: A guilty defendant may be acquitted

• A decision may be incorrect in two ways:

 Reject a true H0 : Type I Error
 Fail to reject a false H0 : Type II Error
 Type I and Type II Errors

A contingency table illustrates the possible

outcomes of a statistical hypothesis test.
 Significance & Power of a Test

• The Probability of a Type I error is denoted

by .
 is called the level of significance of
the test. (1- ) is the confidence level.

• The Probability of a Type II error is

denoted by .
1 -  is called the power of the test.
  and  are conditional probabilities:
  = P(Reject H 0 H 0 is true)

  = P(Accept H 0 H 0 is false)
 When  increases,  decreases. Hence give
preference for the one which is more
important for taking proper decision,
considering the consequences. eg:

 Keep  very low in a murder case.

Innocent should not be punished. ( high)

 H0: Food is free of poison. Keep  very low.

May cause only inconvenience of
transportation, delay etc only
 1-Tailed and 2-Tailed Tests

The number of tails of a statistical test is

determined by the need for an action.

If action is to be taken when a parameter is

either too high or too low compared with
some specific value ‘a’, then H1 is that, the
parameter  to ‘a’, and such test is a two-
tailed test. eg: Identifying Indians by height.
H0:  5’6” H1: 5’6”
If action is to be taken when a parameter is
greater than some value a, then the
alternative hypothesis is that, the parameter
is greater than a, and such test is a right-
tailed test. eg: effect of tuition to increase
mark.
H0: 45 H1:  45

 If action is to be taken when a parameter is

less than some value a , then the
alternative hypothesis is that, the
parameter is less than a, and such test is a
left-tailed test. eg: effect of vitamin C to
reduce common cold & sneezing.
H0:  15 H1:  15
 Rejection Region

• The rejection region of a statistical

hypothesis test is the range of numbers that
will lead us to reject the null hypothesis in
case the test statistic falls within this range.
The rejection region, also called the critical
region, is defined by the critical points.
• The rejection region is defined so that, before
the sampling takes place, our test statistic will
have a probability  of falling within the
rejection region if the null hypothesis is true.
Standard Normal Distribution. Two tailed test 5% significance

0 .8

0 .7

0 .6
0.95

0 .5

0 .4

0 .3

0 .2
0.025 0.025
0 .1

0 .0

-1.96  1.96

Lower Rejection Upper Rejection

Region Nonrejection Region
Region
Some Critical Values for Tests

 Critical Values of ‘z’ for:

 Two tailed test

 90%- 1.645, 95%- 1.96, 99%- 2.58

 One tailed test

 90%- 1.28, 95%- 1.645, 99%- 2.33
 Steps

 Identify the Null Hypothesis.

 Decide if two tail or single tail test.
 Form the Alternative Hypothesis.
 Select the appropriate distribution.
 Set the critical value for the significance level
specified and mark the rejection area.
 Calculate the std error of the statistic.
 Convert the observed values to standardized
values.
 Mark the position of the sample value on the
graph.
 Compare the position visa-a-vis the critical value
and decide to reject H0 or not.
 Type of Hypothesis Tests

We will see different types of hypothesis tests, namely

One Sample Tests

Tests of population means - Z and t
Test of Proportion - Z
 Two Sample tests
Tests for Means
Tests for Proportion
 One Sample Tests - Means

• Cases in which the test statistic is Z

 is known and the population is normal.

 is known or unknown and the sample size is
large > 30. The population need not be normal
for large sample.

The formula for calculating Z is :

x - 
z
 n
 One Sample Tests - Means

• Cases in which the test statistic is t

 is unknown, sample is small, and the

population is normal.

The formula for Calculating t is :

x-
t
S/ n
 Example – z test -1

 A group of 36 men are suspected to be

Indians. Their average height was found to
be 5’ 8”. The mean height of Indians is
known to be 5’ 6” with a std deviation of 3”.
Test the hypothesis that they are Indians at
99% confidence level (1% significance
level).
 H0:  = 5’ 6”, H1:  5’ 6”. Large sample.
 Example - 2

 The average mark for a subject in a college

is 55 with std deviation 10. A group of 36
students from this college, who were
undergoing special tuition, was found to
have an average mark of 60. Test whether
the tuition was effective at 1% significance
level.
 (Hint – one tailed ). Large sample. Use z test
 H0 : = 55 H1 : 55
 Example - 3

An automatic bottling machine fills cola into

two liter (2000 cc) bottles. A consumer
advocate wants to test the null hypothesis that
the average amount filled by the machine into
a bottle is at least 2000 cc. A random sample
of 40 bottles coming out of the machine was
selected and the exact content of the selected
bottles are recorded. The sample mean was
1999.6 cc. The population standard deviation
is known from past experience to be 1.30 cc.
Test the null hypothesis at the 5% significance
level.
 H0:  2000
 H1:  2000
n = 40. Large sample .Use z test. One tailed.
For  = 0.05, the critical value of z is -1.645

x - 0
The test statistic is: z 
/ root n

Do not reject H0 if: [z -1.645]

Reject H0 if: z 
n = 40
x = 1999.6
 = 1.3

x  1999.6 - 2000
z  0 =
 1.3
n 40

=  1.95  Reject H
0
 Example - 4 - t test

From a large population of unemployed youth,

a random sample of 25 was taken and their IQ
measured. It averaged 97 with std deviation of
12. Could it be inferred that their IQ is lower
than that of the average population(100). Test at 5%
Significance level. ans:
H0: =100 H1:  < 100.
n= 25,(small sample) is un known. So use t distribution.
S.E = 2.4. t = (x - ) / S.E = -1.25.
Table value at d.f =24 for 5%(one tail) = -1.711. since 1.25 is
within the acceptance region, Ho is not rejected.
Testing Proportion – Large Sample

 H0: p= p
 H1 : p = p, or p < p or p> p
 For large sample (if both np
and nq are > 5) use Z test
 SE=p = root (pq/n)
 z = (p – p)/p
 Example - 5

A manufacturer claims that at least 95% of the

machinery he supplied was confirming to the
specifications. An examination of a sample of
200 machines showed that 16 were faulty. Test
his claim at ‘’ of i. 5% ii. 1%.

Ho: p >.95; H1: p <.95 ; p= 84/200=.92; n=200;

S.E= root of (pq/n) = root of 0.95*0.05/200= 0.0154;
z=(0.92- 0.95)/0.0154 = 1.948 > 1.645
So Ho rejected at 95%
But 1.948 < 2.33
So not rejected at 99%
 Two Sample Tests
Means of Large Samples

S.E of difference of 2 sample means

= root of [(12/n1)+(22/n2)]
Use Z test
H0: 1=2 ; H1 : as the case may be
Z= (x1-x2)/S.E
Example - 6

A reading test is given to a class that consists of Indian

children and Pakistani children. The results of the test
on sample of size 100 Indians and 120 Pakistanis gave
the following data.
Indian : Mean marks = 74
Standard deviation = 8
Pakistani : Mean Marks = 70
Standard deviation = 10
Are the Indians superior to the Pakistanis children?
Test at significant at a 0.01. ans:
S.E= 1.214, z= 3.295. one tailed. 3.3 >2.33. Ho rejected. ie,
there is statistical evidence of superiority.
 Two Sample Tests
Means of Small Samples
 Use t test
 Find the combined std deviation of the
samples ‘s’
 S2 = [(n1-1)s12 + (n2-1)s22] / (n1+n2-2)
 S.E = s * root of [(1/n1)+(1/n2)]
 t = (x1-x2)/S.E d.f = n1+n2-2
Example – 7. t test

A sample of 15 children from Mumbai showed that

the mean time that they spend watching TV is 28.50
hours per week with a S.D of 4 hours. Another
sample of 16 children from Calcutta showed that the
mean time spent by them watching TV is 23.25
hours per week with a S.D of 5 hours. Using a 2.5%
significance level can you conclude that the mean
time spent watching TV by children in Mumbai is
greater than that for children in Calcutta.
S2= (14x16+15x25)/(15+16-2) = 20.655 s= 4.545
SE= 4.545xroot of [(1/15) + (1/16) ) =1.6335
t = (28.5-23.25)/1.6335 = 3.214. > table value at d.f 29
for one side 2.5%, ie, 2.0452.
Reject Ho. Answer is yes.
 Two Sample Tests
Means of Dependent Samples

 Similar elements of population but under

different conditions.
 eg: before and after a treatment
 Paired samples consisting same/similar
elements before and after.
 H0 :1=2. Use t test.
 s2 =  d2/n – (d/n)2. S.E =s /root (n – 1)
 t =d / S.E. d.f = n -1
 Example – 8. Dependent samples

IQ test was administered to 5 persons before and

after they were trained. The results are as given
below. Is there statistical evidence of improvement?
Test at 5% significance.

Candidates I II III IV V
IQ before 110 120 123 132 125
I Q after 120 118 125 136 121
s.n IQ. (before) IQ (after) d d2
1 110120 10 100

2 120118 -2 4

3 123125 2 4

4 132136 4 16

5 125121 -4 16

 d d

 d =10/5=2 t = 0.82 < table value for d.f 4,

one tailed, which is 2.132. So no evidence.
 Two Sample Tests
Proportions of Large Samples

 S.E of difference of 2 proportions

= root of {pq [(1/n1 )+ (1/n2)]}
 p = (n1p1+ n2p2)/(n1+n2)
 Use Z test
 Z = (p1-p2)/S.E
 Example – 9

 When the role of Tulsi in a popular

serial was played by Smriti Irani, it was
observed that 400 out of 500 viewers
interviewed used to watch that serial.
Later when the same character was
played by Gautmi Kapoor, the
viewership fell to 400 out of 600 viewers
interviewed. Is the drop in viewership
significant ?
 Ho: H1 :
 p1= 400/500=0.8
 p2= 400/600=0.667
 p = (400+400)/(500+600)=8/11
 q=3/11.
 S.E= root {pq[(1/n1)+(1/n2)]}=.027
 z= (p1-p2)/S.E = 4.926 > 2.33 , for 1%
significance level by one tailed test.
 There is significant drop in viewership.