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Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA
Director of Research / Portfolio Manager
Investment Management Associates, Inc.
 
Chinese analysis can be divided into three periods:
1.Pre-crisis
–
1998-2008
–
Late-Stage Growth Obesity
2.During crisis
–
2008 (Q4) -2009 (Q2)
–
You Lie!
3.Post-crisis
–
2009 (Q2) -today
–
SuperSteroids-R-Us
 
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Pre-Crisis -Late-Stage Growth Obesity
Starbucks is a good example of Late-Stage Growth Obesity
1999 2007
Company-Owned Stores2,00010,000Opened Stores a Year4471,403Opened Stores a Biz Day1.85.5
Growth is high, but its quality is low

China - The Mother of All Black Swans by Vitaliy Katsenelson - April 2010

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Joseph Gordonleft a comment

Tsunami is spelled with a T, not a P
04 / 29 / 2010
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Joseph Gordonleft a comment

The next Black Swan: China! A psunami like none the economic world has ever seen!
04 / 29 / 2010
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abaczanleft a comment

its real, but you are using the american way to explain the economic.i am also worried about the china economic, but till now it is good. may be the eastern philosophy can make some miracle out, nobody knows, waiting......
04 / 19 / 2010
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Frode_Haukenes_9881left a comment

tnx ! nice work :-)
04 / 17 / 2010
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