Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Prepared by:
David Justin Ross
Chief Investment Officer
Radiant Asset Management, LLC
dave@radiantasset.com
Breaking the Buck:
The Underlying Issues of the Sub-Prime Crisis and Credit Crunch
The credit crunch that began with the sub-prime mortgage market has spread to funds that were
supposed to be safe places to keep short-term cash. Many short-term bond funds, ultra-short-term
bond funds, and money market funds have been adversely affected, some of them disastrously, by the
infection from the sub-prime melt-down. The current credit market problems have many causes but
three events converged into a perfect storm in late 2007 that not only worsened the crisis, but spread it
1. The Sub-Prime Crisis – The market has discovered that packaging a collection of high-risk mortgages
into a Structured Investment Vehicle (SIV) does not make them any less risky. It just makes the
crunch worse when it comes. The incidents of default in these SIVs have been far worse than actual
defaults on mortgage payments, even in the sub-prime space. Many funds and banks that
purchased these SIVs attracted by their promised returns have been forced to liquidate their
As housing prices fell and the credit crisis has deepened, sub-prime borrowers with adjustable rate
mortgages (or worse, with large balloon payments) found that much or all of the equity in their
houses had evaporated, making it impossible for them to refinance. When they defaulted, their
foreclosed houses glutted the market, causing other sellers to have to drop their prices. This led to
lower assessed valuations, helping to deepen the crisis and extend it beyond the sub-prime space.
sub-prime mortgages, they had an outsized effect on the securities that were based on them.
2. FASB Rule 159 – This rule, promulgated in November, 2007, mandated, among other things, that
Level 2 and Level 3 securities be priced by their holders based on “observable inputs” if such were
available. Level 1 securities are continually “marked- to-market” (priced) and trade based on liquid
real prices. Level 2 are generally “marked-to-model” where there may be an observable input (such
as initial purchase price) but where there are no available quoted prices. Level 3 are valued on
“unobservable” inputs that reflect a company’s own assumptions about validation. In May, it was
Fannie Mae estimated that 23 percent of its entire holdings were in Level 3 assets1.
Companies purchased Level 2 and Level 3 securities based on their anticipated cash flow, and since
that cash flow was their primary interest, the ability to mark these securities to market was
considered unimportant. Not only was it difficult (or impossible) to do so, but evaluating these
securities based on a model (Level 2) or guesswork (Level 3) meant that their value didn’t change
very often – which produced a smooth NAV for the holding fund.
FASB 157 made it much harder for Level 2 (and some Level 3) holders to maintain the fiction of fixed
asset value. It requires them to price their holdings based on “observable inputs”, meaning
anything they could use to get a price closer to actual market demand.
Presciently, Paul Kedrosky2 said just before the rule came into effect, “[I]t's hard not to wonder if
FASB Rule 157, which comes into force this Thursday, will turn out to be the fire that lights the final
fuse here. While it's laudable and all to force transparency and push market pricing, when everyone
1
“Freddie Mac Accounting Cuts Losses by $2.6 Billion”, Bloomberg.com, May 14 2008.
2
“Credit Markets, Minsky Moments, and FASB Rule 157”, paul.kedrosky.com, November 13, 2007.
3. “Observable Inputs” – The use of these for valuing securities were mandated by the FASB rule
changes of late 2007. Markit Group was among the first to introduce these for mortgage-backed
securities with their ABX derivatives indices. The ABX was launched in January 2007 to serve as a
benchmark for securities backed by mortgages issued to borrowers with weak credit and therefore
to provide visibility and transparency in the pricing of sub-prime-backed securities. In doing so, it
Since neither the mortgages themselves nor the SIVs traded often, there had no need for their
holders to attempt to determine their fair value for carrying on their books. Derivatives on the
mortgages, however, did trade3. These indices therefore offered a way of valuating the holdings
that met Rule 157 requirements. A vicious cycle resulted. Using the values of the indices, holders of
the SIVs were forced to downgrade the book value of their holdings. This, in turn, reduced the
demand for derivatives based on those SIVs, which further depressed the index.
3
Ibid.
funds and banks were forced into massive asset liquidations. These assets included mortgage- and
asset-backed securities, CDOs (Collateralized Debt Obligations) and credit default swaps. This sale of
securities at distressed prices created more “observable inputs” in pricing – and further
deterioration in the indices. This, in turn, caused asset revaluation at all levels and ever greater risk
Many of the SIVs have lost 90% or more of their value during this period. Since default rates in the
mortgages upon which they are based are nowhere near this extreme, the joke that the problem
here was that someone asked what these securities was actually worth contains more than an
element of truth. It does no good to force the sudden valuation of a security if that valuation leads
While some funds liquidated, others tried different approaches. Some, perhaps figuring that Level 3
securities were less likely to be forced into a pricing situation, restated much of their Level 2
holdings as Level 3. Others, in part out of fear that their own forced sales would create “observable
inputs” for other securities in their portfolios, delayed selling, only to find that in many cases the
The situation was exacerbated when the distressed sales led to “events of default”. These were not,
in general, a default in the underlying security (though there were certainly some of those). Instead,
funds that were restricted to holding securities above a specified credit rating suddenly found their
holdings downgraded. They had to liquidate these holdings, further depressing prices and
frequent rollovers are a problem in the absence of purchasers for those rollovers.
Funds that were negatively impacted as described above had been attracted to the securities by
their relatively high cash flow. They believed that by pooling the assets, default risk could be
minimized. Also by keeping them short-term, interest rate exposure could be minimized. As long as
the risks were borrower-specific – an issue here, a company there – this strategy worked. These
funds discovered however, that diversification evaporates in a crisis. As the credit crisis hit and
investments started to fall in value, investors rushed to withdraw their funds. To raise the necessary
cash, the funds were forced to sell already distressed assets into a market that was not interested in
buying them.
A recent Morningstar article stated, “The roots of [these] problems shouldn't come as a surprise to
readers. Like beaten-up funds in other categories, many ultra-short funds own securities tied to the
performance of the housing market and, as it became clearer that that area was running into
trouble, these bonds started flailing. A key force in this downdraft is that heaps of investors
including hedge funds that had owned these securities had to sell them to stay afloat, which further
As banks and funds liquidated their holdings, the infection spread. This negatively affected
securities only distantly touched by the sub-prime crisis. Eventually even Fannie Mae and Ginny
Mae backed securities found themselves out-of-favor. This, of course, badly affected the asset value
of the funds that held them, including several cash management funds. Even some money market
funds either “broke the buck” or had to be bailed out by their owners.
4
Paul Herbert, Morningstar.com, April 21, 2008.
In the tradeoff between market and interest rate risk on the one hand and default risk on the other,
cash management funds have generally chosen to minimize the former while taking on more of the
latter than perhaps they realized. Exposure to longer-term securities carries exposure to the following:
1. Market /Allocation Risk – The securities may find themselves with diminished demand, a situation
2. Interest Rate/Duration Risk – Other than default, the primary risk to the value of debt instruments
is a change in interest rates. A rise in interest rates tends to depress the value of debt and the
Cash management funds traditionally have deemed duration risk and market risk of primary importance
and consequently preferred very short-term instruments, even those with higher default risk. Because
these instruments were rolled over frequently, their exposure to interest rate changes was low. Holders
also believed that by pooling their investments they could cut their exposure to default risk while
Consequence Examples
demonstrates. All charts in this report reflect total Figure 3 – HOSBX Total Return net of fees
(3/1/07-8/31/08)
return net of fees.
Source: Yahoo Finance
Two funds that have been more strongly affected by the credit crisis were provided by two of the largest
Charles Schwab Yield Plus is a large (more than $600 million in mid-2008, currently $133 million) fund
(SWYPX) that invests primarily in investment-grade bonds. It may, however, invest up to 25% of its
assets in bonds below investment quality, provided they have no lower than a B rating from one NRSRO.
lost about 33% of net asset value, its holdings have declined by nearly 80% during this period. See
aimed for high current income and liquidity. It invested Figure 5 - SSYPX Total Return net of fees (3/1/07-
8/31/08)
in mortgage-backed securities, corporate notes, conduit Source: Yahoo Finance
debt instruments, and various asset-backed securities, as well as derivatives of the above. It was shut
Much larger than State Street’s fund are Fidelity’s Ultra-Short Bond Fund (FUSFX $310 million) and JP
Morgan’s Ultra-Short Duration Bond fund (JUSUX 275 million). Both have stated investment processes
that are more conservative than State Street’s or Schwab’s. FUSFX seeks a high level of current income
consistent with preservation of capital. It invests 80% of the fund in investment grade securities or
repurchase agreements for those securities. 25% or more of its assets may be invested in the financial
services industry. Its investments have a targeted average maturity of two years or less.
JUSUX has a similar profile, investing in bonds, money market instruments, adjustable rate mortgage-
backed securities, and municipal bonds. It targets a 1-year interest rate sensitivity. As the chart below
shows, these investments turned out not to be quite as conservative as Fidelity or Morgan intended.
JUSUX has lost nearly half its assets under management (through withdrawals and decline in NAV) since
An excellent example of the spread of the credit infection “upstream” in mortgage-backed securities can
be seen with TCW’s Short-Term Bond I fund, TGSMX, see Figure 8 for Total Return. Its mortgage-backed
securities are guaranteed by, or secured by collateral guaranteed by the US Government or its
sponsored corporations (Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac). It also invests in AA or higher privately issued
mortgage backed securities. It has assets of more than $100 million. Average duration exposure is one
year.
A November 20 article in Kiplinger5 touted TCW’s Short-Term Bond fund as a fund that was weathering
the crisis, bolstered by its Government-backed securities. The article stated that “the fund has behaved
just as you would expect an ultra-short bond fund to behave. The fund has delivered a modest yield
with virtually no movement in share price”. The article also said, somewhat more presciently, “If the
U.S. housing market collapsed and the backing of Fannie or Freddie became problematic, the TCW fund
hard, two classes of cash management funds have weathered the storm relatively well: ultra-short-term
government-only bond funds and funds investing in variable rate mortgage-backed securities. As Paul
Hebert said in the abovementioned Morningstar article, “investors wondering where to put their near-
term money today have a few options. For the most risk-averse, it makes some sense to revisit money
market funds. They won't lose money, and they'll leave folks a bit better off than if they held their
money in a checking account. Given the low level of rates today, they won't be much better off, though.
Plus, not all ultra-short funds deserve the brush off that the worst of the lot do. Ultra-short government
funds and those focusing on adjustable-rate mortgages have done their jobs during the past several
months. We're fans of funds such as those offered by AMF, for instance”.
AMF’s Short US Government fund (ASITX $64 million) seeks a high level of current income consistent
with preservation of capital and the maintenance of liquidity. It invests only in high-quality fixed and
variable rate assets, primarily of US Government obligations. It targets durations between 1 and 3
years, but has restrictions on neither the minimum nor the maximum maturity of its holdings.
Unfortunately, since the Morningstar article was published, the infection has spread, as the chart below
iMoneyNet Inc. in the last week of August alone, “…money-market investors overall poured $50 billion
into these Treasury- and government-only funds, while pulling $21 billion out of so-called prime money
US Government-Only Funds
This brings us to the funds that invest solely in US Government securities and their derivatives. These
funds are limited to a specific range of maturities. Their past year’s performance is a strong indicator of
Among the recipients of the cash pulled from other funds are various ETFs that seek to match the total
return of various duration Treasury products, see Figure 10. Among the largest is iShares Lehman 1-3
Treasury Bond ETF (SHY). It has more than $9 billion in assets. It seeks results approximating the price
Perhaps the most important lesson is one that has to be periodically relearned: “Their ain’t no such
thing as a free lunch.” It is not possible, over the long term, to receive returns in excess of the risk-free
rate without incurring some risk. That risk may be well-hidden, but it is there. As holders of ultra-short
term bond and money market funds have discovered at their considerable cost, risk is not mitigated by
forming an aggregate of securities with the same risk profile. A bundle of sows’ ears is still not a silk
purse. In particular, the idea that pooling higher-risk mortgages would reduce overall risk has proven as
false as such risk-avoidance approaches have in the past. The effect of such risk pooling is to make the
An important takeaway is that while one must assume risk to get higher returns, risk that is predictable
is better than risk that is hidden. And aggregation tends to hide risk. On the other hand, funds that
invest in Treasuries and other guaranteed securities where the primary risk is interest rate change
exposure have fared far better than those that invested in asset-based securities. There is certainly risk
in interest rate exposure, but, as the market has sharply proven over the past several months, that
exposure is far more manageable and far more predictable than the risk of contagious default.
Radiant Asset Management is an alternative investment management firm formed on the belief
that corporate fundamentals, investor behavior, and market dynamics drive performance.
Original research and proprietary analysis set us apart. We seek superior absolute returns in all
markets.
If you have any comments on the paper, are interested in any further research or speaking engagements
please contact:
Disclosure
This material is directed exclusively at investment professionals. The presentation is provided for
limited purposes, is not definitive investment, tax, legal or other advice and should not be relied on as
such. Investors should consider their investment objectives before investing and may wish to consult
other advisors. Any investments to which this material relates are available only to or will be engaged in
only with investment professionals. Any person who is not an investment professional should not act or
rely on this material.
The information presented in this report has been developed internally and/or obtained from resources
believed to be reliable; however, Radiant Asset Management does not guarantee the accuracy,
adequacy or completeness of such information. References to specific securities, asset classes and/or
financial markets are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be recommendations.
All investments involve risk and investment recommendations will not always be profitable. Radiant
Asset Management does not guarantee any minimum level of investment performance or the success of
any investment strategy. As with any investment there is a potential for profit and well as the possibility
of loss. This material is not an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to purchase any securities of
Radiant Asset Management or its affiliates. Radiant Asset Management and its affiliates are under no
obligation whatsoever to sell or issue any securities except pursuant to the terms of a duly executed
purchase agreement and related documents.