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RosBusinessConsulting - Russia Macroeconomic Forecasts Monthly - April 2010

RosBusinessConsulting - Russia Macroeconomic Forecasts Monthly - April 2010

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Published by The Russia Monitor

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Published by: The Russia Monitor on Apr 23, 2010
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Russia: Macroeconomic forecasts Monthly 
Analysts forecasts 
Macroeconomic Indicators 
The overview includes the latest Russian economy statistical data and macroeconomicindicators forecasts made by leading domestic and foreign investment firms and brokersas well as their comments. It is available on a monthly basis.
www.rbc.ru tel. (495) 363-11-11
Consensus-forecasts of fundamental Russian macroeconomic indicators
Information providers 
The World Bank 
Bank of America Securities & Merrill Lynch 
Raiffeisen Research 
Capital Economics 
Deutsche Bank 
Troika Dialog 
BDOin Russia 
Renaissance Capital 
Bank of Moscow 
Trade balance, $bnCapital expendituresReal disposable incomes
Consensus-forecasts of fundamental Russianmacroeconomic indicators
Source: Rosstat, RBC Consensus-forecasts
Russian economy indicators 2010f 2011f 2012f
GDP,% 4.4 4.1 4.7Industrial production,% 5.4 4.9 5.1Real disposable incomes,% 2.9 4.1 8.2Capital expenditures,% 4.7 6.2 11.1Inflation,% 7.4 7.6 7.6Unemployment,% 8.3 7.8 6.9Trade balance, $bn 133 123 120Exports, $bn 364 397 447Imports, $bn 241 272 318
Department of analytic information1
Data by Ministry for Economic Development of the Russian Federation show that Russian economy grew 0.6% QoQ in Q110. It was up4.9% YoY and 0.2% MoM (excluding seasonality) in March. Ministry for Economic Development of the Russian Federation expectsRussian GDP to increase by 3.0-3.5%in 2010, 3.4% in 2011 and 4.2% in 2012.
GDP, %Forecast
Russian Real GDP Year-over-Year, %
Source: Rosstat, RBC Consensus-forecasts
In the near-term, the pace of
recovery will depend to a large extent on the path of oil prices, Capital Economics analysts believe.But a more likely scenario is that oil prices fall back as the pace of global recovery ultimately disappoints and the dollar rebounds further.This in turn is likely to lead to a renewed capital outflow, which will put the banking sector under renewed pressure. And while the lowlevel of government debt means that there is less pressure to rein in stimulus measures than in parts of the Western world, fiscal policywill still have to tighten more quickly than would otherwise be the case. So although, according Capital Economics analysts, a one-offboost from the inventory cycle should ensure that GDP expands by 5% this year, they expect growth to fade to just 2% in 2011.
Russian Real GDP Forecasts Year-over-Year, %
2010f 2011f 2012f 2013fConsensus 4.4 4.1 4.7 5.1Median 4.5 4.2 4.6 5.0
Allianz4.04.5--Commerzbank & Dresdner Kleinwort5.54.5--HSBC4.73.0--IMF4. of America Securities & Merrill Lynch7.0---BNP Paribas4.94.24.5-The World Bank5.53.5--Troika Dialog5.24.9--UniCredit Securities2.75.23.9-BDO in Russia2.53.0--Uralsib5. Capital4.2---Capital Economics5.02.0--Bank of Moscow7.05.55.6-Alfa-Bank3.62.0--Wells Fargo Securities3.64.1--Deutsche Bank4. Capital4.63.6--Economist Intelligence Unit3. Sachs Group4.55.5--TD Bank Financial Group4.74.9--Credit Agricole Group3.54.5--Nomura5.54.4--Credit Suisse3.64.94.6-Danske Bank2.53.04.2-CIBC3.04.0--Nordea2.84.2--Lloyds TSB4.75.2--Sosiete Generale5.52.5--The Royal Bank of Scotland3.22.4--
Department of analytic information2
Source: investment companies data
Industrial Production in Russia rose by 5.8% YoY in Q110. It was up 5.7% YoY and 15.3% MoM in March 2010. It should be noted that IPfell 10.8% in 2009. Ministry for Economic Development of the Russian Federation expects Industrial Production in Russia to increase by 1-2% in 2011 and 1.5-3%in 2012.
2010f 2011f 2012fConsensus 5.4 4.9 5.1Median 5.0 4.7 4.6
HSBC5.84.8-Bank of America Securities & Merrill Lynch4.73.7-BNP Paribas4.74.03.8Troika Dialog5.04.7-BDO in Russia5.04.0-Uralsib8.26.56.9UBS8.34.5-Renaissance Capital4.1--Bank of Moscow8.05.04.6Alfa-Bank4.0--Barclays Capital3.06.5-Danske Bank3.04.0-Lloyds TSB6.56.4-
Russian Industrial Production IndexYear-over-Year, %
Industrial production, %Forecast
Source: Rosstat, RBC Consensus-forecasts
YoY performance of Russian IP sharply improved in March incomparison with February when IP growth was merely 1,9%YoY. As IP (seasonally adjusted) was a bit higher in March 2009than in February 2009, Bank of Moscow economists conclude thatlast month saw quite a strong rise in the manufacturing sector.However they cannot correctly estimate (exclude seasonality)these dynamics for now as Rosstat (that changed themethodology for the calculation of the industrial productionindex in the beginning of this year) failed to producedretrospective data. In other words, there are no doubts amongeconomists about the fact that industrial output in Russiaincreased in March, but they cannot say how strong this increasewas. According to their estimates, industrial production is likelyto continue to show positive performance in Q210 with YoYfigures being able to rise considerably (at least to 7-8%) due to alow base effect. So Bank of Moscow maintains its forecast for IPto grow by 8% in 2010.
There is still no possibility to track the historical performance ofindustrial output in Russia on a seasonally adjusted basis, as thehistorical data were not recalculated after Rosstat changed itsmethodology, Renaissance Capital economists note. Relying onseasonally adjusted data provided by Rosstat, industrialproduction dynamics in March were negative. This supports theview of Renaissance Capital economists that the recovery inindustrial output is unstable and the result of a low base andgovernmentstimulus measures.
Russian Industrial Production Index Forecasts Year-over-Year, %
Department of analytic information3
Source: investment companies data

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