Industrial Production in Russia rose by 5.8% YoY in Q110. It was up 5.7% YoY and 15.3% MoM in March 2010. It should be noted that IPfell 10.8% in 2009. Ministry for Economic Development of the Russian Federation expects Industrial Production in Russia to increase by 1-2% in 2011 and 1.5-3%in 2012.
2010f 2011f 2012fConsensus 5.4 4.9 5.1Median 5.0 4.7 4.6
HSBC5.84.8-Bank of America Securities & Merrill Lynch4.73.7-BNP Paribas4.74.03.8Troika Dialog5.04.7-BDO in Russia5.04.0-Uralsib126.96.36.199UBS8.34.5-Renaissance Capital4.1--Bank of Moscow8.05.04.6Alfa-Bank4.0--Barclays Capital3.06.5-Danske Bank3.04.0-Lloyds TSB6.56.4-
Russian Industrial Production IndexYear-over-Year, %
Industrial production, %Forecast
Source: Rosstat, RBC Consensus-forecasts
YoY performance of Russian IP sharply improved in March incomparison with February when IP growth was merely 1,9%YoY. As IP (seasonally adjusted) was a bit higher in March 2009than in February 2009, Bank of Moscow economists conclude thatlast month saw quite a strong rise in the manufacturing sector.However they cannot correctly estimate (exclude seasonality)these dynamics for now as Rosstat (that changed themethodology for the calculation of the industrial productionindex in the beginning of this year) failed to producedretrospective data. In other words, there are no doubts amongeconomists about the fact that industrial output in Russiaincreased in March, but they cannot say how strong this increasewas. According to their estimates, industrial production is likelyto continue to show positive performance in Q210 with YoYfigures being able to rise considerably (at least to 7-8%) due to alow base effect. So Bank of Moscow maintains its forecast for IPto grow by 8% in 2010.
There is still no possibility to track the historical performance ofindustrial output in Russia on a seasonally adjusted basis, as thehistorical data were not recalculated after Rosstat changed itsmethodology, Renaissance Capital economists note. Relying onseasonally adjusted data provided by Rosstat, industrialproduction dynamics in March were negative. This supports theview of Renaissance Capital economists that the recovery inindustrial output is unstable and the result of a low base andgovernmentstimulus measures.
Russian Industrial Production Index Forecasts Year-over-Year, %
Department of analytic information3
Source: investment companies data