3Deloitte Business Sentiment Index
The results o the third Deloitte Business Sentiment Index,covering 1Q 2010, make or heartening reading onmany important issues. Credit, or instance, appears tobe easing or the companies surveyed in Central Europe,with three quarters o respondents believing credit isnow available. This optimism is a clear indication thatinvestment cycles are improving slightly or companiesollowing the global economic crisis. There is alsogrowing optimism that spending on capital goods willimprove, with around a third o those surveyed nowbelieving capital expenditure will increase in 12 months’time. These positive trends have contributed to the steadyupward curve o the Main Composite Index o the survey,which is now up +9.5 points since our rst survey inSeptember 2009 to
Tempering this optimism, however, the senior executivessurveyed remain cautious about employment prospectsacross the region and the likelihood o launchingnew products or services over the coming year. Thereare signs that although the economic outlook orthe next six to 12 months looks a little brighter, thereare still a ew dark clouds on the horizon. Over a thirdo respondents expect employment levels to reduceurther – a proportion which has remained constantsince 3Q 2009. It’s a similar story or expectations olaunching new products or services. In our rst survey, just over 30% believed it unlikely their companies wouldintroduce new products. This percentage remainsconstant across all surveys to date.Despite these more sobering gures, however, weshould still be optimistic that the gure continues to beairly steady or both key indicators. On an individualcountry basis, Poland remains the most optimistic –down largely to its positive GDP growth in 2009, whichwas higher than expected. Croatia continues to seenegative sentiment due to a number o actors, mainlythe high dependency o the country’s GDP on tourism,which has taken a severe knock during the recession.As was our intention rom the start, we are now, withthe publication o our third survey, building up a banko data rom 3Q 09 onwards, which is proving to bea very valuable and inormative set o statistics aboutbusiness sentiment and outlook in Central Europe. Weare observing a small but denitely positive movementtowards a more optimistic economic outlook, togetherwith a steadying o views on other key issues.
Managing PartnerFinancial AdvisoryDeloitte Central Europe