Final Cyprus Conflict Paper

Shane Hensinger Josef Korbel School of International Studies – University of Denver Civil Wars and International Responses – Professor Tim Sisk

Negotiation and Peacebuilding Analysis – Cyprus

Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 3 Negotiation ..........................................................................................................................4

Bargaining Framework ............................................................................................................4Greek-Cypriot Bargaining Position ........................................................................................6Turkish-Cypriot Bargaining Position .....................................................................................7Turkish, Greek and United States Negotiating Positions ......................................................9

History of the Negotiating Process .................................................................................. 10

The Vienna Talks 1975 - 1977 ................................................................................................10Factors Contributing to Failure of the Vienna Talks and Subsequent Rounds of Negotiations .............................................................................................................................12

The Annan Plan ................................................................................................................15

The Defeat of the Annan Plan ......................................................................................... 20

The Way Forward ..................................................................................................................22Peacebuilding in Cyprus ........................................................................................................24

Sequencing the Institutions of the Annan Plan .....................................................................................24Peacekeeping in Perpetuity? – Drawing Down UNFICYP ..................................................................26

Conclusion ........................................................................................................................ 26 Appendix ........................................................................................................................... 28Works Cited ...................................................................................................................... 30

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Introduction

In report I will present an analysis of the negotiating strategies of theGreek-Cypriot and Turkish-Cypriot sides in the Cyprus conflict since the Turkish invasion of 1974. I will focus in particular on the negotiationprocesses involved in the formulation the Annan plan in 2004 and howboth sides’ bargaining positions have evolved (or devolved) sincenegotiations on reunification and a constitutional settlement beganafter the Turkish invasion in 1974. I will be relying heavily on theprocesses laid out by Timothy Sisk in “Bargaining with Bullets,”focusing on the prenegotiation and negotiation processes between thetwo sides and the theoretical concept of “ripeness” as applied to theCyprus situation after the invasion of Turkey in 1974 and preceding EUaccession in 2004, while looking to the applicability of the ripenessconcept to current negotiations preceding elections in the TurkishRepublic of Northern Cyprus in mid-April 2010

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.Finally I will be analyzing the negotiation process for its applicabilityand inducements towards the building of peace – in particular looking

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Sisk’s work is strongly applicable in the sense that he outlines a powerful case for “Peacemaking withPower” and negotiations leading to the building of effective and durable power-sharing institutions, both of which resonate strongly in the case of Cyprus. Intertwined in Sisk’s recommendations is the issue of bringing peace to warring parties, which is slightly less applicable to Cyprus due to the cessation of intercommunal violence more than ¼ of a century ago. The major issues in Cyprus have morphed fromthose centered around security in the traditional sense to those centered around the type of consociationalmodel and confidence buildings measures (CBMs) necessary to convince

both

communities to accept afinal agreement.

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