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Background Briefing:ASEAN’s 16
th
Summit and theSouth China SeaCarlyle A. ThayerApril 11, 2010
[client
name
deleted]
Question:
The
recently
concluded
ASEAN
Summit
in
Hanoi
has
produced
a
Protocol
to
the
ASEAN
Charter
on
Dispute
Settlement
Mechanisms
but
the
final
statement
issued
by
ASEAN
leaders
at
the
Summit's
conclusion
made
no
mention
of
the
South
China
Sea
dispute.
In
your
assessment,
what
does
this
mean
for
the
Southeast
Asian
and
Chinese
claimants
in
South
China
Sea
as
well
as
the
United
States
which
has
become
more
interested
in
South
China
Sea
in
2006
?
ANSWER:
First,
it
means
that
Vietnam
was
unable
to
use
its
position
as
Chair
to
advance
this
issue
in
ASEAN.
Prime
Minister
Dung
noted
at
a
press
conference,
however,
that
ASEAN
and
China
had
agreed
to
discuss
the
Declaration
on
Conduct
of
Parties
in
the
South
China
Sea.
This
is
likely
to
be
the
venue
to
follow
up
on
this
issue.
Second,
it
reflects
clear
differences
between
Vietnam
and
the
Philippines
whose
leaders
held
a
meeting
on
the
side.
While
they
agreed
to
pursue
a
"win
‐
win"
solution,
it
is
clear
that
the
Philippines
disagrees
with
the
joint
Malaysia
‐
Vietnam
submission
to
the
UN
Committee
on
Extended
Continental
Shelf.
The
Philippines
has
also
agreed
to
bilateral
arrangements
with
China.
Third,
it
does
not
affect
the
United
States.
The
U.S.
takes
no
sides
with
respect
to
the
territorial
claims
of
any
nation.
The
U.S.
is
primarily
concerned
with
the
saftey
of
navigation
in
the
South
China
Sea.
The
U.S.
will
continue
its
intelligence
gathering
operations,
under
escort
if
necessary,
off
Hainan
Island.
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
Background Briefing:16
th
ASEAN Summit: AnAssessmentCarlyle A. ThayerApril 16, 2010
[client
name
deleted]:
1.
How
do
you
assess
the
result
of
the
16th
ASEAN
Summit
which
has
just
been
held
in
Hanoi,
in
the
year
of
Vietnam's
presidency?
In
your
view,
which
is
the
most
remarkable
point
in
the
ASEAN
joint
declaration?
ANSWER:
The
recently
held
16
th
ASEAN
Summit
is
the
first
of
two
summits
that
Vietnam
will
host
this
year.
The
16
th
summit
was
an
exclusively
all
‐
ASEAN
affair
under
the
motto
of
moving
from
vision
to
action.
The
most
significant
developments
at
the
summit
related
to
the
next
steps
ASEAN
will
take
to
achieve
its
goal
of
creating
an
ASEAN
Community
by
2015.
In
this
respect
the
adoption
of
the
Protocol
on
the
Dispute
Settlement
Mechanism
was
potentially
the
most
far
reaching.
ASEAN
is
now
poised
to
become
a
rules
‐
based
organization
with
mechanism
for
compliance.
This
must
be
tested
in
practice
however.
2.
One
of
this
year
ASEAN
president's
priorities
is
to
seek
and
promote
the
consensus
within
ASEAN
on
East
Sea
issue,
whose
expected
goal
is
a
bounder
Declaration
on
the
Conduct
of
Parties
in
the
East
Sea
(DOC).
According
to
you,
is
this
goal
too
abstract?
ANSWER:
In
2002,
when
ASEAN
and
China
signed
the
Declaration
on
Conduct
of
Parties
in
the
South
China
Sea.
ASEAN
declared
that
this
was
the
first
step
towards
a
code
of
conduct.
The
following
year,
when
ASEAN
adopted
the
Bali
Concord
II
Declaration
(2003),
ASEAN
once
again
declared
its
support
for
a
Code
of
Conduct
on
the
South
China
Sea.
It
is
disappointing
to
read
in
the
chairman’s
statement
that
“Ministers
and
senior
officials
[agreed]
to
enhance
the
utilization
of
ASEAN’s
existing
tools
and
mechanisms
such
as
…
the
Declaration
of
Conduct
of
Parties
in
the
South
China
Sea
(DOC),
…
to
ensure
regional
peace
and
security.”
This
indicates
that
after
eight
years
ASEAN
has
not
reached
consensus
to
push
for
a
code
of
conduct
and
it
further
indicates
that
not
all
ASEAN
members
agree
on
the
urgency
of
the
matter.
The
cause
of
this
disagreement
may
be
found
in
differences
of
national
interest
and
Chinese
diplomatic
pressure
to
keep
territorial
disputes
in
the
South
China
Sea
a
bilateral
matter.
3.
Can
the
implementation
of
DOC,
which
is
not
legally
bound,
possibly
work
effectively
in
maintaining
peace
and
security
on
East
Sea?
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
2
ANSWER:
The
DOC
was
listed
among
the
documents
to
be
used
by
ASEAN
in
its
goal
of
creating
a
Political
‐
Security
Community,
one
of
the
three
pillars
serving
as
the
foundation
of
an
ASEAN
Community
by
2015.
The
DOC
is
not
a
legally
binding
document.
It
does
not
include
the
Paracel
islands.
It
does
not
define
which
rocks
and
other
features
comprise
the
Spratly
islands.
The
DOC
was
the
best
ASEAN
could
get
after
seven
years
of
negotiations
with
China.
The
DOC
has
not
prevented
China
from
undertaking
unilateral
activities
at
variance
with
the
spirit
of
the
document.
The
DOC
has
imperfections
and
peace
and
security
in
the
East
Sea
can
only
be
reached
through
more
binding
agreements
and
joint
cooperation
by
the
parties
concerned.
4.
One
of
the
obstacles
for
the
attempts
of
internationalization
of
the
East
Sea
disputes
is
the
ASEAN's
failure
in
getting
a
consensus
on
the
issue
and
the
differences
in
members'
level
of
priority.
In
your
view,
which
is
a
good
approach
for
Vietnam
to
win
the
ASEAN
consensus?
Is
there
another
chance
for
Vietnam
to
put
the
issue
on
the
table
again
in
its
year
of
ASEAN
presidency?
ANSWER:
Only
four
of
ASEAN’s
ten
members
are
directly
involved
in
disputes
over
territory
I
the
South
China
Sea
–
Vietnam,
the
Philippines,
Malaysia
and
Brunei.
China
has
succeeded
in
preventing
Vietnam
and
the
Philippines
from
showing
a
united
front.
Both
countries
protested
last
year
when
Malaysia
and
Vietnam
jointly
made
a
claim
for
an
extended
continental
shelf
in
the
southern
area
of
the
South
China
Sea.
Vietnam
must
redouble
its
diplomacy
with
the
Philippines.
The
meeting
between
Prime
Minister
Nguyen
Tan
Dung
and
President
Gloria
Macapagal
Arroyo
is
only
an
initial
step.
She
will
be
replaced
when
the
Philippines
holds
its
next
elections.
Further,
Vietnam
must
lobby
the
six
other
ASEAN
members
who
are
not
parties
to
the
South
China
Sea
dispute
to
support
Vietnam
and
demonstrate
unity.
This
will
be
difficult
because
Thailand
is
in
disarray,
China
is
building
influence
in
Cambodia
and
Laos
and
Myanmar
is
unlikely
to
antagonize
China.
Vietnam
only
has
a
short
time
before
the
17
th
ASEAN
Summit
later
this
year
when
ASEAN
leaders
will
meet
with
China.
This
is
the
opportunity
to
present
a
united
front.
Vietnam
must
forge
consensus
on
the
basis
of
cooperating
with
China
for
peace
and
not
confront
China.
The
fact
that
Indonesia
is
taking
over
as
ASEAN
Chair
next
year
is
a
good
development
as
Indonesia
will
be
more
proactive
than
Brunei.
5.
Vietnam
is
trying
to
make
its
hallmark
in
the
year
of
ASEAN
presidency.
Observing
the
ASEAN
conferences
and
summits,
how
do
you
initially
assess
this
attempt?
ANSWER:
Vietnam
has
already
demonstrated
that
it
is
a
reliable
international
partner
through
its
two
‐
year
non
‐
permanent
membership
on
the
UN
Security
Council.
Vietnam
has
hosted
ASEAN
summits
in
the
past.
This
year
as
the
ASEAN
Charter
begins
to
be
implemented
Vietnam
has
an
especially
heavy
responsibility.
The
Protocol
on
ASEAN’s
Dispute
Settlement
Mechanism
and
the
joint
statements
on
sustainable
development
and
climate
change
are
important
indicators
of
Vietnam’s
diplomatic
success.
6.
Some
observers
appreciate
Vietnam's
role
in
dealing
with
Myanmar
issue.
How
do
you
personally
think
of
it?
ANSWER:
It
is
clear
on
the
Myanmar
issue
that
Vietnam
is
capable
of
flexible
diplomacy
to
reflect
the
consensus
within
ASEAN.
As
a
country
victimized
by
foreign
intervention,
Vietnam
upholds
non
‐
interference
in
internal
affairs
and
has
some
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