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In This Issue
Two ronts.
By most measures, the economy is on the mend. Does that meanhousing is as well? In his commentary this month, NAR Chie Economist Lawrence Yunsays the answerdepends on two potentially big support actors: Jobs and Condence.
Read more.Making sense o economic data.
Liestyle, amily, and the enjoyment o owningone’s own home are important considerations or consumers when deciding to purchasea home. Obviously buyers will look at price, availability and trends. But changes in theeconomy – and potential changes as well – play a roll in a buyer’s decision. We’re bom-barded daily with the latest economic data. What economic indicators are the most sig-nicant or real estate and or real estate proessionals and their clients? Jed Smith, NAR’sManaging Director o Quantitative Research, gives us an overview.
Read more.Keeping “up to date” with Research Update.
Beginning in June, another a neweature will make its debut in
Real Estate Insights.
Research Update
will be a regularcolumn in this newsletter, and will provide inormation about developments in thereal estate industry, current NAR Research studies, as well as links to other insightulinormation. Meredith Dunn o NAR Research Communications provides a sneak peak at what you will nd in
Research Update
.
Read more.Single Women – A Signifcant Market.
The most recent
NAR Profle o HomeBuyers and Sellers
indicates that single women account or a signicant share o homebuyers. Indeed, these home purchasers represent the second largest share o adult house-holds who purchase homes. Research Economist Jessica Lautz takes a look at this marketand how single emale buyers dier rom other home purchasers.
Read more.Pending home sales
rose in February, showing a healthy gain rom January as wellas rom a year ago. NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index, a orward-looking indicatorbased on contracts signed in February, rose 8.2 percent to 97.6 rom a downwardlyrevised 90.2 in January, and was 17.3 percent above February 2009 when it was 83.2.All regions o the country posted year-over-year gains, and all regions except the Westregistered monthly increases.
April 2010Real Intelligence –Real Advantages
Table o Contents
Real Estate Monitor 2Economic Commentary:Two Fronts 4U.S. Economic Forecast andOutlook Table and Charts 6In Focus:Looking at Key Economic Data 8Using NAR Research:Research Update 10Market Intelligence: SingleWomen Homebuyers 11Links to Statistical Tables 13Resources From NAR Research 14
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INSIGHT-”ul ino
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Real Estate IN-SIGHTS
. In the meantime, remember toclick on the special “For more ino” arrowicons throughout this issue. By clicking onthis icon when reading
INSIGHTS
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Real Estate Insights
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April 2010
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©2010 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
®
2Existing-home sales
eased 0.6% in February toa seasonally adjusted annual rate o 5.02 millionunits. Year over year, resales were up 7.0%. Thenational median home price or an eisting home was$165,100. At the end o the month, total housing inven-tory was at an 8.6 month supply at the current sales pace.
New home sales
also declined in February – by 2.2% – to a seasonally adjusted annual rate o 308,000 units. Newsales were o 13.% rom a year ago. While the inventory o new homes available or sale at the end o February was down28% rom February o 2009, the months supply was a 9.2 – a3.4% increase rom January.
Housing starts
declined 5.9% in February to a season-ally adjusted annual rate o 575,000 units, but starts wereup slightly – by 0.2% – rom a year ago. Housing permits – generally a reliable indicator o uture starts – were o 1.6%, butwere up 11.3% rom February o 2009.
Housing aordability
remains at high levels. NAR’sHousing Aordability Inde stood at 176.0 in February,down rom January’s reading o 177.5. Increases in severalo the components o the inde, including mortgage rates,qualiying income, and a small month-to-month increase in themedian price o eisting homes contributed to the decline.
Mortgage rates
The average 30 year ed rate mortgagedecreased slightly – by 2 basis points – in March romFebruary to 4.97%. With still-historic low lending costs,consumers scramble to secure low rates as many economistsepect a rate hike during the second hal o the year. The aver-age rate was at 5 percent in March o 2009.
Employment
The economy created 162,000 jobs dur-ing March – the biggest job gain in three years. Addingto payrolls in March were manuacturers, temporaryhelp services, the health care sector, and leisure and hospitality.The ederal government also added 48,000 temporary Censuspositions. But those newly created jobs had no impact on theunemployment rate, which was unchanged at 9.7%.
Economic growth
The economy grew at an annual rateo 5.6% in the ourth quarter o 2009. Growth in thethird quarter o last year was 2.2% and GDP registered a-5.4% growth rate in the ourth quarter o 2008. This is the thirdestimate o GDP growth, based on more complete data, and iso rom the previous estimate o 5.9%. Increases in consumerspending, eports, ed investment and equipment and sotwarecontributed to the growth.
Monthly IndicatorRecent Figures ForecastLikely DirectionOver the NextSix Months
Feb 2010 5,020 Jan 2010 5,050Feb 2009 4,690Feb 2010 308 Jan 2010 315Feb 2009 354Feb 2010 575 Jan 2010 611Feb 2009 574Feb 2010 176.0 Jan 2010 177.5Feb 2009 180.7Mar 2010 4.97%Feb 2010 4.99%Mar 2009 5.00%Mar 2010 +162Feb 2010 -1412-monthtotal -2,3202009:IV +5.6%2009:III +2.2%2008:IV -5.4%Declines in theimmediate months aterta credit endsRemaining largely atsuppressed levels until2011Inaccessibility o construction loansholding back ullrecovery Modest decline romsuper high levels Recovering economyand high budget decitorces up rates Job creation momentumappears intactTo epand but notrobustly as wouldnormally happen post-recession
Notes: All rates are seasonally adjusted. Existing home sales, new home sales and housing starts are shown in thousands. Employment growth is shown as month-to-month change inthousands. Sources: NAR, Bureau o the Census, Bureau o Labor Statistics and Freddie Mac. This report reects data as o April 2, 2010. Compiled by Wannasiri Chompoopet, Ken Fearsand Lawrence Yun.
REAL ESTATE MONITOR
Real Estate Insights
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April 2010
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©2010 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
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3
Pending home sales rose in February. NAR’s pending home sales inde rose 8.2% inFebruary to 97.6. February’s inde was 17.3% ahead o the reading in February 2009.On a year over year basis, the inde rose in all our regions o the country. The PendingHome Sales Inde is a orward-looking indicator based on pending sales o eistinghomes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transac-tion has not yet closed. Sales are usually nalized within one to two months o signing.The inde is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percento transactions or eisting-home sales. In developing the model or the inde, it wasdemonstrated that the level o monthly sales contract activity rom 2001 through 2004paralleled the level o closed eisting-home sales in the ollowing two months. Pleasenote there is a closer relationship between annual inde changes (rom the samemonth a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales perormance than with month-to-month comparisons. An inde o 100 is equal to the average level o contract activityduring 2001, which was the rst year to be eamined, as well as the rst o ve consecutive record years or eisting-home sales. The improvementin pending sales in February is another hopeul sign or housing, potential-ly signaling a second surge o home sales in response to the home buyerta credit.
01000200030004000500060007000Feb p Jan rDecNovOctSeptAug Jul JunMayAprMarFeb
020406080100120 2010
T h o u s a n d s
P en d i n g S al e s I n d ex
2009EHSPHS
Source: NAR Research
Pending Home Sales
(existing home sales lagged by 1-2 months)
NAR’S PENDING HOME SALES INDEx
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